TheTrials Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 5:54 PM, ag3 said: Which would be a complete embarassment to both the GFS and NAM from 8am this morning, which both showed virtually zero rain for NYC. And now the 12z rgem also joins the 12z NAM and GFS camp. It went from 1"+ of rain last night to barely .15" now. It also breaks down this rain, as it hits the marine layer now. Feels like January 11, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:01 PM, TheTrials said: Feels like January 11, 2011. GFS brings in about .50" of rain from 8pm thru 2am. Should've added that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 A steady moderate rain has been falling here in Ramsey since about 1:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:01 PM, TheTrials said: Feels like January 11, 2011. More like Jan. 26-27 when models insisted that there would be no precip in the morning and only .50"-.75" qpf at night. LOL. And that included the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 -RA 74.5/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 light rain breaking out here now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Radar seems to be lagging behind in PHL and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:18 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Radar seems to be lagging behind in PHL and NYC OKX has been having a lot of problems with its radar lately, something needs to be fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 5:51 PM, ag3 said: 18-21 850's are for only 1-2 days on GFS. And in the extended, the entire ridge gets broken down. 0z euro kept the ridge in place and it wouldve affected us past day 10. I would bet money that August will be below normal to maximum +1 for NYC. I was all over this past mega heat surge, from 10 days out. But the long range, lately does not support major or sustained heat. Of course, as you said, it can change in the next couple days. I may be inclined on that one. The gfs still looks warmer than normal albeit les than prior runs. Looks like a back and forth pattern bias warm/dry with bursts of heat like this coming fri - sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:18 PM, Plfdwxdude said: Radar seems to be lagging behind in PHL and NYC I think it's a national problem, as even the nationwide mosaic is blank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 It's good to see rain drops . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 glad I had an early flight today... looks a bit nasty now out east... greetings from northern suburbs of Chicago... wall to wall sushine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:20 PM, SACRUS said: I may be inclined on that one. The gfs still looks warmer than normal albeit les than prior runs. Looks like a back and forth pattern bias warm/dry with bursts of heat like this coming fri - sun. GFS shows 90-95 on Saturday and Sunday. Friday is only in the upper 70's and low 80's, due to clouds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJay Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:25 PM, mgerb said: I think it's a national problem, as even the nationwide mosaic is blank. The level III feeds from okx,dix, bgm and box are all down. Albany is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Sacrus, have you seen the 12z euro? Even cooler then 0z thru day 9, but it still has the 594 heat ridge building around day 9 and starting to head east, which would impact around day 12+ on euro, if it went that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Appears to be back up working now On 7/25/2011 at 6:41 PM, TJay said: The level III feeds from okx,dix, bgm and box are all down. Albany is up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:43 PM, ag3 said: Sacrus, have you seen the 12z euro? Even cooler then 0z thru day 9, but it still has the 594 heat ridge building around day 9 and starting to head east, which would impact around day 12+ on euro, if it went that far. No I havent seen it. Whats it showing for fri - sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:56 PM, SACRUS said: No I havent seen it. Whats it showing for fri - sun? Similar to GFS. A tad cooler at the 850 level. Friday appears to be a wet and cloudy day now, which will keep temps low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 6:57 PM, ag3 said: Similar to GFS. A tad cooler at the 850 level. Friday appears to be a wet and cloudy day now, which will keep temps low. thanks for the update. I hope its wrong about friday. it will be interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 7:02 PM, SACRUS said: thanks for the update. I hope its wrong about friday. it will be interesting to track Yeah. Friday can easily change to a hot, 90-95 degree day also. If the cloudiness and rain change, then the 850's support higher temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Feels awesome outside. -RA 69.4/66 .04" rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 8:00 PM, nzucker said: Feels awesome outside. -RA 69.4/66 .04" rainfall Yeah. We are 20-30 degrees colder then Friday and Saturday. Feels nice to finally have some rain also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 8:04 PM, ag3 said: Yeah. We are 20-30 degrees colder then Friday and Saturday. Feels nice to finally have some rain also. Did you show Nate the pictures of his garden you took? He's wondering what happened to it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 5:51 PM, ag3 said: 18-21 850's are for only 1-2 days on GFS. And in the extended, the entire ridge gets broken down. 0z euro kept the ridge in place and it wouldve affected us past day 10. I would bet money that August will be below normal to maximum +1 for NYC. I was all over this past mega heat surge, from 10 days out. But the long range, lately does not support major or sustained heat. Of course, as you said, it can change in the next couple days. Mt Holly has me for 98 on Friday so they dont seem to be buying into one model run at this time. Also has me for 91, 88, 91 Tuesday thruThursday so actually the heatwave could start tomorrow. Has 93, 90, 94 Saturday thru Monday so they seem to be buying into heat in the 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Looks like we're back into the 90's with some cold pool storms moving southeast from New England tomorrow. Wednesday looks great...mid to upper 80's with blue skies and a light northwest wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 8:25 PM, earthlight said: Looks like we're back into the 90's with some cold pool storms moving southeast from New England tomorrow. Wednesday looks great...mid to upper 80's with blue skies and a light northwest wind. ahhh that'll be really refreshing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 8:26 PM, A-L-E-X said: ahhh that'll be really refreshing! yes it will be. i can appreciate a day like this. but bring back the heat soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Nice squall line incoming once the steady rain gets out of here. Odd setup with the the line moving very quickly. It may stay west of the city itself but it will impact alot of us. It has a couple warnings with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 There is less than 250 joules of cape and it's been raining moderately for three hours. The chances of a squall line impacting anybody in our area with the slightest bit of severity are very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 On 7/25/2011 at 8:46 PM, earthlight said: There is less than 250 joules of cape and it's been raining moderately for three hours. The chances of a squall line impacting anybody in our area with the slightest bit of severity are very low. Any chance we can at least see the heavy rains make it through here as a semi consolidated line as it is now? No need for the severe part, right now I am just trying to squeeze as much rain out of this as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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