HM Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 If the ridge migrates east next week (which I think it will), the threat for a warm front-induced MCS feature will exist. The new ECMWF has this potential from MI/Ontario into New England Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. Looks classic to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 If the ridge migrates east next week (which I think it will), the threat for a warm front-induced MCS feature will exist. The new ECMWF has this potential from MI/Ontario into New England Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. Looks classic to me... HM, agree. Although MCS's are virtually impossible to predict, the pattern looks ripe for ring of fire type convection as the upper ridge pushes east. Big time heat across the south this summer, Raleigh NC had a +5.7 June and +4 July so far. The severe drought in the Southern US and now the gradual drying of the ground in the Northeast over the coming week should set the stage for an impressive heat release for the second half of July. Anomalies probably won't beat early June but I expect actual maxima to be higher...likely widespread 100F attained even in suburbia (which is very dfficult to do). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 HM, agree. Although MCS's are virtually impossible to predict, the pattern looks ripe for ring of fire type convection as the upper ridge pushes east. Big time heat across the south this summer, Raleigh NC had a +5.7 June and +4 July so far. The severe drought in the Southern US and now the gradual drying of the ground in the Northeast over the coming week should set the stage for an impressive heat release for the second half of July. Anomalies probably won't beat early June but I expect actual maxima to be higher...likely widespread 100F attained even in suburbia (which is very dfficult to do). I agree about the potential heatwave coming. When I was doing long range maps back in June for July, I kept doubting myself and asking, "really" to what I was drawing. I drew like widespread aboves everywhere, especially in the Plains, and I'm glad I did. These second summers in cool ENSO periods usually have a more squashed ridge and that means a very hot summer for the southern-tier. But I think this year's heat is magnified by the crazy drought and warm SST nearby. 2008 is overrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I agree about the potential heatwave coming. When I was doing long range maps back in June for July, I kept doubting myself and asking, "really" to what I was drawing. I drew like widespread aboves everywhere, especially in the Plains, and I'm glad I did. These second summers in cool ENSO periods usually have a more squashed ridge and that means a very hot summer for the southern-tier. But I think this year's heat is magnified by the crazy drought and warm SST nearby. 2008 is overrated. I agree-- Im hoping for 100+ even at the coast. Looks like this summer may have a strong end.... Here on the south shore we have been consistently hotter than the city, and a part of that is because of the dry conditions and the rest is because of the predominant west to northwest flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I agree about the potential heatwave coming. When I was doing long range maps back in June for July, I kept doubting myself and asking, "really" to what I was drawing. I drew like widespread aboves everywhere, especially in the Plains, and I'm glad I did. These second summers in cool ENSO periods usually have a more squashed ridge and that means a very hot summer for the southern-tier. But I think this year's heat is magnified by the crazy drought and warm SST nearby. 2008 is overrated. Yeah this month will be quite a bit warmer than 2008 over the OH valley and central US, largely b/c June 2008 was much wetter than June 2011 over these areas. However I still have 2008 as my top analog right now, and believe the overall pattern has been playing out quite similarly this year. For the Northeast US, July 2011 temp departures are likely to be close to July 2008, maybe slightly warmer. Also looks like I should have gone with July as the hottest month relative to normals for NYC; I went +2 - +3 for June but that looks to occur this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Beautiful right now, 82 and blue skies. The next several days look like top 10 days of the year -- mid 80s, lower humidity, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Both the GFS and ECMWF D 8-10 torch us with heights surpassing 588dm across the region. However, the ECMWF holds onto a pretty healthy -NAO into the longer range while the GFS moves the vortex near srn greenland. This morning's GFS ensemble NAO proggs also backed off the +NAO for late july, now remaining slightly negative NAO through D 15. My bet would be to err on the negative side as the NAO has been verifying lower than fcst in the D 10+ range lately. Even still, its mid/late July, so heat relase is much easier to achieve into the Northeast w/ a -NAO signal (although there still may be some resistance in nern/NE New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah ISO, for us the nao is a neutral signal-- a -NAO helps new england more with resisting the heat, so all signs seem to be still be pointing to a triple digit heatwave. I would look for August to also be hot, especially with the dry ground conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Beautiful right now, 82 and blue skies. The next several days look like top 10 days of the year -- mid 80s, lower humidity, etc. Dont morph into NZucker please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 You're right that I am being hard on 2008. There are many things similar in the global oceans between 2008 and 2011. But you are going to be faced with a rather difficult August forecast then. The eastern two thirds of America were generally cooler than normal, especially with the new normals (81-10). It was during the first two weeks of August that the global oceans began to depict the inevitable: the western Pacific warm pool began to solidify again, the warm anomalies in the N PAC began to focus toward the Aleutians allowing for a GOA cool pool to develop and even the coastal areas of the Gulf and East Coast began to cool. This basically suggested no El Niño (the Pacific). Absolute solar minimum occurred December 2008 and I do believe that had a lot to say on things precipitation-wise and PDO-wise. I just don't know how close we are going to resemble sensible weather this August and autumn to 2008, despite are strong similarities in the oceans so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 To be honest, with all the yellowing grass, extreme heat and dry conditions here, this reminds me a lot more of 1995 than it does 2008. We also had a building weak la nina that summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I have a stupid question. Why exactly would the higher dewpoints from yesterday have "prevented" the temperatures from rising as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I have a stupid question. Why exactly would the higher dewpoints from yesterday have "prevented" the temperatures from rising as much? For the same reason that SST rise slower than air temps I believe (specific heat.) Water vapor balances out the extremes and prevents temps from falling as quickly or rising as rapidly as they otherwise would. Think of the daily extremes one finds in the desert and you'll see what I mean. We weren't nearly as humid at the coast because of the downsloping wind, which is why we got into the upper 90s here. Also factor in the urban sprawl with a NW wind passing over urban areas before getting to us and you'll see why we want W or NW winds for ideal heating conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 For the same reason that SST rise slower than air temps I believe (specific heat.) Water vapor balances out the extremes and prevents temps from falling as quickly or rising as rapidly as they otherwise would. Think of the daily extremes one finds in the desert and you'll see what I mean. We weren't nearly as humid at the coast because of the downsloping wind, which is why we got into the upper 90s here. Also factor in the urban sprawl with a NW wind passing over urban areas before getting to us and you'll see why we want W or NW winds for ideal heating conditions. Oh duh! I have no idea why I never thought of it that way. I was thinking about it too much in terms of air parcels and soundings...I know water vapor can prevent radiational cooling because of the condensation which results in the release of latent heat that counters a parcel cooling off simply from rising (moist adibatic lapse rate instead of dry adibatic lapse rate, for example), but for some stupid reason, I never thought of the specific heat example... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I'm leaving for HI on the 20th, so I expect to miss the first prolonged 90s stretch here this summer...not that I'm complaining about heading to Hawaii; however surf temps in Kohala are not that much higher than what we're seeing here right now due to the remains of la nina, and of course I'll see no 90s there except when I hop down into the Kilauea Caldera (which is actually why I'm going), specifically Helema'uma'u, which for the first time since Mark Twain visited, once again contains a lava lake Can you actually get to a place to view it? You're making me want to go back now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It was a picture perfect day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 To be honest, with all the yellowing grass, extreme heat and dry conditions here, this reminds me a lot more of 1995 than it does 2008. We also had a building weak la nina that summer. Wow, hard to believe you've got yellowing grass while once a week lawn cutting isn't keeping up with the grass growth here. Very localized precip maxima due to the convection so far this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Dont morph into NZucker please Don't worry, I still prefer big heat at this time of year. But can't deny the next few days look amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Can you actually get to a place to view it? You're making me want to go back now! Mark Twain went to Hawaii? I didn't know that-- it must have been a long cruise lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow, hard to believe you've got yellowing grass while once a week lawn cutting isn't keeping up with the grass growth here. Very localized precip maxima due to the convection so far this summer. I think it's part of the reason why the temp has been zooming up here every day. We were in the upper 90s yesterday even with partial cloud cover, even right at the beach like Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 You're right that I am being hard on 2008. There are many things similar in the global oceans between 2008 and 2011. But you are going to be faced with a rather difficult August forecast then. The eastern two thirds of America were generally cooler than normal, especially with the new normals (81-10). It was during the first two weeks of August that the global oceans began to depict the inevitable: the western Pacific warm pool began to solidify again, the warm anomalies in the N PAC began to focus toward the Aleutians allowing for a GOA cool pool to develop and even the coastal areas of the Gulf and East Coast began to cool. This basically suggested no El Niño (the Pacific). Absolute solar minimum occurred December 2008 and I do believe that had a lot to say on things precipitation-wise and PDO-wise. I just don't know how close we are going to resemble sensible weather this August and autumn to 2008, despite are strong similarities in the oceans so far. You may be right re August as I am a bit worried about my cooler look in the Northeast. It's difficult to get an analog to work for more than 2 consecutive seasons. With that said, I still would be impressed to see all 3 summer months come in above normal temp wise in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Im hearing reports of pretty good storms crossing bergen county, are all the radars down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electricsheep Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Im hearing reports of pretty good storms crossing bergen county, are all the radars down? Pretty strong winds and rain herein Glen Ridge, NJ. Knocked over 6 foot potted trees in heavy containers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Nice gust storm here to cool things off. The next week or so looks insanely amazing for outdoor activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Manhattan about to get throttled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wind gust to 49 mph at KEWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Some rain and gusty winds just initiated here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Nice storm! Heavy rain. Strong winds and lightning with thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This was sort of a slam, bam, thank you mam, situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Temp dropped to 71 with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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