easternsnowman Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Models are not showing low 90's. Euro is showing 98-102+ and this time it looks sustained. Not just transient like every other heat surge this summer. Ok but being this far out the models have not been that reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Ok but being this far out the models have not been that reliable. Understood and I always say to not look at models so far out. But this time, all models support a huge ridge building in, for that time frame. It makes sense this time that the heat will be sustained. Teleconnections seem to support it as well. I dont think this will be a 1-3 day heat surge this time. Could see it lasting for 5-7 days this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 clouds and showers will likely limit 90 degree readings. Clouds already pushing into NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Need the rain, this is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Need the rain, this is good. Watch it die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Understood and I always say to not look at models so far out. But this time, all models support a huge ridge building in, for that time frame. It makes sense this time that the heat will be sustained. Teleconnections seem to support it as well. I dont think this will be a 1-3 day heat surge this time. Could see it lasting for 5-7 days this time. The GFS ensembles show it as well, although the operational does look a tad warmer than the overall mean at this point.. but regardless, it looks to be very warm to hot.. the question will be how hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The GFS ensembles show it as well, although the operational does look a tad warmer than the overall mean at this point.. but regardless, it looks to be very warm to hot.. the question will be how hot. Just keep the humidity down. No southwest flow please for the love of god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Just keep the humidity down. No southwest flow please for the love of god. unfortunately, it is not the best news for that... the ensemble 2M dewpoints are basically showing 65 or above for a lot of that time period.. in some cases over 70... but I guess if we have temps in the upper 90's, then dews in the 65-70 range is actually not completely obscene, but it won't feel great out there.. unless you're like me and like this kind of heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Watch it die. 6z NAM and GFS have it dying just before it gets here, so its modeled to die. Just keep the humidity down. No southwest flow please for the love of god. The way the ridge is setup on the euro and GFS, that is almost definitely a sustained WSW flow. So if this happens. it will be forky type heat. Hazy, hot and super humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 6z NAM and GFS have it dying just before it gets here, so its modeled to die. The way the ridge is setup on the euro and GFS, that is almost definitely a sustained WSW flow. So if this happens. it will be forky type heat. Hazy, hot and super humid. It's more than clouds than anything which will limit 90(+) especially ito n-nj and NYC. Showers will likely be very minimal here. Looks like our next sot at 90s will be on Monday (7/18), perhaps this sunday i the warmer spots. Then the heat is on beyond there into the end of next week and weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Hopefully the models back away from big heat and humidity as we approach next week. Biggest advantage I got right now is time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 90 or above not happening today as peak heating hours will be overcast...too bad, as I'm rooting for the big heat next week and the more dry sunny warm days we get this week (got to get some of that moisture out of CPK) the more interesting next week becomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 90 or above not happening today as peak heating hours will be overcast...too bad, as I'm rooting for the big heat next week and the more dry sunny warm days we get this week (got to get some of that moisture out of CPK) the more interesting next week becomes stil not a bad day and if we get enough clearing and breaks later we may see some sights approach 90. It looks between 7/18 and 7/31 we will have plenty more shots at 90 to get far above avg for the season going into August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 stil not a bad day and if we get enough clearing and breaks later we may see some sights approach 90. It looks between 7/18 and 7/31 we will have plenty more shots at 90 to get far above avg for the season going into August. I'm leaving for HI on the 20th, so I expect to miss the first prolonged 90s stretch here this summer...not that I'm complaining about heading to Hawaii; however surf temps in Kohala are not that much higher than what we're seeing here right now due to the remains of la nina, and of course I'll see no 90s there except when I hop down into the Kilauea Caldera (which is actually why I'm going), specifically Helema'uma'u, which for the first time since Mark Twain visited, once again contains a lava lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Finally some rain moving into area from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks to be falling apart. But right now I`ll be happy with a light sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks to be falling apart. But right now I`ll be happy with a light sprinkle. It's modeled to get close and then fall apart. The newest 12z NAM re-confirms that. We might get a sprinkle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It's sprinkling here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 we're going to have a recurving supertyphoon in the wpac... it will help build the ridge north of hawaii, which is favorable for heat here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It's sprinkling here now. keep us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I just hope that the hottest temps of the summer happen this month.Summers in which the hottest temps were in August have had some benign winters that followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 keep us updated Its sprinkling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Its sprinkling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 12z GFS has a mega torch that would make forky, Alex and earthlight proud for days 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Current visible sattelite shows an area of partial clearing heading SSE into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Clearing is occurring areawide. A few areas will break 90 again, it appears. 2pm: EWR: 87 LGA: 82 JFK: 88 NYC: 83 TEB: 82 JFK warmest spot in our area for now. Newark will pass them, in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Clearing is occurring areawide. A few areas will break 90 again, it appears. 2pm: EWR: 87 LGA: 82 JFK: 88 NYC: 83 TEB: 82 JFK warmest spot in our area for now. Newark will pass them, in the next few hours. Wow, we were the warmest even when everyone was cloudy. I hope it gets to 90 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Hopefully the models back away from big heat and humidity as we approach next week. Biggest advantage I got right now is time. No way dude, you want to see 100+-- history in the making! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 unfortunately, it is not the best news for that... the ensemble 2M dewpoints are basically showing 65 or above for a lot of that time period.. in some cases over 70... but I guess if we have temps in the upper 90's, then dews in the 65-70 range is actually not completely obscene, but it won't feel great out there.. unless you're like me and like this kind of heat. Well I just want my offshore flow so I dont get a sea breeze. WSW is fine for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Sitting at 80.0 OVC in Monmouth, high so far 81. The forecast was for 89; we do have clearing rapidly moving SE, let's see how high we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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