earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SPC WRF takes the area of precipitation over Central/Southeast PA and develops it into an MCS moving east along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If NAM is off by even 75 miles with its 5" of rain, then your baseball field will be a swimming pool. I just had a horrible flashback to Feb 6, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The MCS development makes a ton of sense given the developing instability (2000+j/kg of SBCAPE) and approaching vorticity and supportive shear parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SPC WRF takes the area of precipitation over Central/Southeast PA and develops it into an MCS moving east along the front. So the way it looks is the entire tristate area looks to be getting wacked today with some powerful storms correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 So the way it looks is the entire tristate area looks to be getting wacked today with some powerful storms correct? It looks like the storms should be widespread. The map only indicates precipitation totals and is suggesting that over a 1 hour period the storms could produce copious amounts of rain. The strength of the storms themselves is to be decided on a much more mesoscale level--although the organization on the model itself likely suggests the storms are bordering on strong/severe levels. That being said I think there is still the potential for this to become a "glob of death" without much individual severe storm organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 So the way it looks is the entire tristate area looks to be getting wacked today with some powerful storms correct? SPC says so. But basically every other model has NYC getting some rain, but the heaviest storms and highest rain amounts to our south by DC and Southern Jersey. Looking at radar though, I can see how SPC and also earthlight will be correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SPC says so. But basically every other model has NYC getting some rain, but the heaviest storms and highest rain amounts to our south by DC and Southern Jersey. Looking at radar though, I can see how SPC and also earthlight will be correct though. Should be noted that I'm not forecasting a widespread severe weather event--simply pointing out that such an event is definitely possible given the conditions at hand. SPC details the potential as well ...SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MID OHIO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. CLOUD COVER THINS ALONG/EAST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE DELMARVA ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TN WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING. IMMEDIATELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF STRONGER WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS IS PRESENT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-45 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..WEISS/BOTHWELL.. 07/08/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 New 15z HRRR has some pretty heavy storms into NYC by 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Big watch just issued 118 WWUS30 KWNS 081750 SAW0 SPC AWW 081750 WW 610 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 081755Z - 090100Z AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NNE POU/POUGHKEEPSIE NY/ - 35SSE DCA/WASHINGTON DC/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /36SSE ALB - 31SSE DCA/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..55 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. LAT...LON 42157191 38367520 38367834 42157523 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Watch includes the entire area..including LI/NY/NJ/CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-033-035-037-039-041-090100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0610.110708T1755Z-110709T0100Z/ In affect for the entire region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS OCEAN PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX DELAWARE DUTCHESS KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK SULLIVAN ULSTER WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Both the NNM and ARW now bullseye northern NJ with over 3" of rain in the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DELAWARE MARYLAND NEW JERSEY SOUTHEAST NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WASHINGTON DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND DIABATIC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23025. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Strong cells are beginning to fire up in front of the main precipitation shield in western and central Jersey now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Looks pretty good.. there is definitely good shear, like SPC was saying. I was checking out wind speeds at different pressure levels.. winds are fairly light through 700 mb, but really ramp up at 500 mb.. hopefully, that will sustain the updrafts... also good 500 mb trof coming through with height falls and vorticity advection should make for some good forcing.. we definitely got the instability as well. I'm pretty jacked up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The height falls do, in a way, correspond with cooling temperatures aloft, because, in theory the thicknesses have dropped but I wouldn't consider this a real case of cold air advection as there really isn't much taking place as you go up through the atmosphere. In fact, the temperature changes are quite subtle if you look at the NAM forecasted temperture profile, you'll note that, for the most part, temperatures stay fairly uniform... but whatever lowering in heights and temps are taking place, it's enough to make the difference as far as instability.. so it can be a very subtle thing and make a huge difference. You would also know if there was major cold air advection taking place by the wind field with respect to increasing height. Winds would back (go counterclockwise) with height. If you look at the wind profile below, there is ever so slight amount of warm advection taking place from the surface through 700 mb with winds veering from southeast to west, however, the parameter is also based on strength and since winds are so weak through these levels, the advection is basically negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Radar is lighting up with every advancing frame. Cant see how all of us dont get some pretty hefty rain amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 An utter explosion now on the radar, looks like the fourth of July....incredible rainfall rates with these storms developing over southern NJ and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Thanks for the explaination Tornadojay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Current radar- Everything in PA looks like it might be disruptive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Thanks for the explaination Tornadojay. not a problem.. anytime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Current radar- Everything in PA looks like it might be disruptive. part of the reason why mount holly went with the flash flood watch for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Getting some nice lightning strikes up here in northern monmouth now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 not a problem.. anytime That whole lecture was the most difficult in advanced atmospheric dynamics learning the QG omega equation and so on with countless hours of solving those equations with differential eqaution techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 That whole lecture was the most difficult in advanced atmospheric dynamics learning the QG omega equation and so on with countless hours of solving those equations with differential eqaution techniques. uggh.. yea.. brings back memories.. most of which I'd care to forget. The quote I became familiar with was "D for Diploma".. anyhow, back on topic... wow, big storm just north of me with a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I could see a warning being issued with the cell in Mercer real soon...between Trenton and Princeton Also the eastern Middlesex cell is starting to look real nice too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The radar is insane, lock the door and hide the kids.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The radar is insane, lock the door and hide the kids.. I thought this was supposed to miss us to the south? If only this would happen in the winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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