July/August NYC Metro WX Disco

[A-L-E-X]

ASOS doesn't report temperature to the nearest tenth. In fact, the reported "temperature" is actually a 5 minute average of the temperature, not the instantaneous reading.

Wow, so the actual temp may have reached 100, but because the range was 100-96, they may have taken the average of the two? And when a time like 222 is listed, it means the 5 min period ending at 222? It sounds somewhat like how sustained wind speeds are reported.

[famartin]

Wow, so the actual temp may have reached 100, but because the range was 100-96, they may have taken the average of the two? And when a time like 222 is listed, it means the 5 min period ending at 222? It sounds somewhat like how sustained wind speeds are reported.

Correct.

[SACRUS]

a few runs in a row of the gfs brigs heat back early next week mon/tue (7/18-7/19)after a few near normal days thu - sun. Stronger more sustained heat is perhaps looming later next week (on/around 7/21.

[SACRUS]

Actually this run keeps it hot all of next week, peaking fri - sat. Then more heat into the longer range

[A-L-E-X]

Actually this run keeps it hot all of next week, peaking fri - sat. Then more heat into the longer range

and zero rain it looks like.

[A-L-E-X]

I doubt June is going to be the hottest month of the summer relative to average, even at JFK, where it was +3.3

[nzucker]

I doubt June is going to be the hottest month of the summer relative to average, even at JFK, where it was +3.3

0z GFS agrees...Day 7 is an absolute torch with 20C 850s past NYC:

Ridge across the country is insane with the +NAO developing:

[A-L-E-X]

Wow, what caused this to happen.... we were battling blocking most of the summer. I believe the Euro is indicating this too, so it looks like we have a consensus.

[forkyfork]

0z GFS agrees...Day 7 is an absolute torch with 20C 850s past NYC:

Ridge across the country is insane with the +NAO developing:

the vortex in canada is the culprit... we had a similar one in july 95

[A-L-E-X]

the vortex in canada is the culprit... we had a similar one in july 95

and do you remember how dry and hot the following August was? That was worse than July because we had all the fires and an almost rainless month-- it would have been rainless if it wasnt for those surprise storms on the last day.

[forkyfork]

and do you remember how dry and hot the following August was? That was worse than July because we had all the fires and an almost rainless month-- it would have been rainless if it wasnt for those surprise storms on the last day.

i'm leaning toward august being the hottest month this summer

the euro is brutal, btw

[A-L-E-X]

i'm leaning toward august being the hottest month this summer

the euro is brutal, btw

Wow, so the two summers to look at when heat gradually expanded eastward and led to an extreme August are 1980 and 1995. I'm sure there are others but those two immediately come to mind.

In 1980 I believe it was centered further south before it came up here (St. Louis was ground zero) while in 1995 it was moreso in the midwest before it came east (Chicago was ground zero.)

[nzucker]

CPC shows the ensembles are pretty much in agreement about a rising NAO, which could lead to more expansion of the heat ridge into the Northeast:

[forkyfork]

there's a 100 degree contour on the euro days 9-10

[nzucker]

there's a 100 degree contour on the euro days 9-10

0z ECM is obscene, it's probably overdone, but it has 850s between 22-24C from Day 8-10. Day 10 is just a scorcher, widespread 100F+ for all stations as 850s are around 25C:

[A-L-E-X]

0z ECM is obscene, it's probably overdone, but it has 850s between 22-24C from Day 8-10. Day 10 is just a scorcher, widespread 100F+ for all stations as 850s are around 25C:

Wow, we're right in the middle of the heat! Notice the axis of the Bermuda Ridge..... if it's in that position and the ground stays dry like it is now, I think it's possible we could see a heatwave like we did last July, but with higher humidity. That high is in the perfect position for a strong downslope-- this is almost like seeing a low at the benchmark lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Hey Nate-- what were the 850s for the big early July super heatwave last year?

[forkyfork]

Hey Nate-- what were the 850s for the big early July super heatwave last year?

enjoy: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010.html

they added july '10

[A-L-E-X]

enjoy: http://www.meteo.psu.../NARR/2010.html

they added july '10

Thanks Forky-- this brings back some good memories

[A-L-E-X]

July 4-7 all four days over 20C looks like it may have hit 25C on the 4th and 5th.

[nzucker]

Hey Nate-- what were the 850s for the big early July super heatwave last year?

They were around 20C or so (mean for the day, so probably in the low 20s for the afternoon) when Central Park hit 103F, I believe, looking at this map:

[A-L-E-X]

They were around 20C or so (mean for the day, so probably in the low 20s for the afternoon) when Central Park hit 103F, I believe, looking at this map:

You were out in Montana at the time weren't you? In the purple part of the map lol.

[nzucker]

You were out in Montana at the time weren't you? In the purple part of the map lol.

Yup...I think it was in the 50s that day in Montana. June and July had near record cold in our area last summer.

[A-L-E-X]

Yup...I think it was in the 50s that day in Montana. June and July had near record cold in our area last summer.

And I believe the NW has been cool again this summer.

[nzucker]

And I believe the NW has been cool again this summer.

It has, and the next trough that rolls into the Pacific Northwest, combined with a rising NAO, is going to torch us. Our soil moisture is declining dramatically, and will continue to do so with W/NW winds and highs in the 80s with constant sunshine, so that the next heat wave may have more of an impact. We will have to watch to see if that high pressure over Quebec holds off the ridge a bit more than the 0z ECM and 0z GFS show, however, something I mentioned in another post to you. The Euro has consistently been too aggressive this summer in expanding the ridge northeast against the weakness in the jet over SE Canada; while this weakness should fade some with the change in the NAO modality, there is still some question as to how far northeast the real heat reaches. The 12z ECM showed exactly this scenario, with 850s not getting much past 16-17C in NYC metro with NNE being below average, due to the weakness over Quebec holding its ground.

[A-L-E-X]

It has, and the next trough that rolls into the Pacific Northwest, combined with a rising NAO, is going to torch us. Our soil moisture is declining dramatically, and will continue to do so with W/NW winds and highs in the 80s with constant sunshine, so that the next heat wave may have more of an impact. We will have to watch to see if that high pressure over Quebec holds off the ridge a bit more than the 0z ECM and 0z GFS show, however, something I mentioned in another post to you. The Euro has consistently been too aggressive this summer in expanding the ridge northeast against the weakness in the jet over SE Canada; while this weakness should fade some with the change in the NAO modality, there is still some question as to how far northeast the real heat reaches. The 12z ECM showed exactly this scenario, with 850s not getting much past 16-17C in NYC metro with NNE being below average, due to the weakness over Quebec holding its ground.

This is like watching for cold and snow in the winter with models being too quick with pattern changes while we wait lol. Eventually it happens, it's just a matter of when.

[Allsnow]

00z euro and 06z gfs are game for big time heat next week. Will prob have earthlight and I cooking our morning eggs on the pavement

[TheTrials]

If the NAO going positive does happen its actually IMHO a very good sign for the winter since we saw this in 2009 and 2010 as well IIRC. It seems over the past two years the blocking has generally come and gone in three month groups so figure Aug, Sept, Oct are +NAO which means knock on wood Nov, Dec, Jan are -NAO.

[easternsnowman]

Also like yesterday, the 6z gfs has the heat as well. Lets see if its subsequent runs maintain it today, same for the ecm.

Suspect we do see another surge of heat on/around the 19th, perhaps more sustained.

That period is the hottest time of year so temps of 90 or low 90's will be only a few above average.

[ag3]

That period is the hottest time of year so temps of 90 or low 90's will be only a few above average.

Models are not showing low 90's.

Euro is showing 98-102+ and this time it looks sustained. Not just transient like every other heat surge this summer.