Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

July/August NYC Metro WX Disco


Dark Energy

Recommended Posts

ASOS doesn't report temperature to the nearest tenth. In fact, the reported "temperature" is actually a 5 minute average of the temperature, not the instantaneous reading.

Wow, so the actual temp may have reached 100, but because the range was 100-96, they may have taken the average of the two? And when a time like 222 is listed, it means the 5 min period ending at 222? It sounds somewhat like how sustained wind speeds are reported.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 964
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Wow, so the actual temp may have reached 100, but because the range was 100-96, they may have taken the average of the two? And when a time like 222 is listed, it means the 5 min period ending at 222? It sounds somewhat like how sustained wind speeds are reported.

Correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the vortex in canada is the culprit... we had a similar one in july 95

and do you remember how dry and hot the following August was? That was worse than July because we had all the fires and an almost rainless month-- it would have been rainless if it wasnt for those surprise storms on the last day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

and do you remember how dry and hot the following August was? That was worse than July because we had all the fires and an almost rainless month-- it would have been rainless if it wasnt for those surprise storms on the last day.

i'm leaning toward august being the hottest month this summer

the euro is brutal, btw

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i'm leaning toward august being the hottest month this summer

the euro is brutal, btw

Wow, so the two summers to look at when heat gradually expanded eastward and led to an extreme August are 1980 and 1995. I'm sure there are others but those two immediately come to mind.

In 1980 I believe it was centered further south before it came up here (St. Louis was ground zero) while in 1995 it was moreso in the midwest before it came east (Chicago was ground zero.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z ECM is obscene, it's probably overdone, but it has 850s between 22-24C from Day 8-10. Day 10 is just a scorcher, widespread 100F+ for all stations as 850s are around 25C:

post-475-0-80460700-1310539907.gif

Wow, we're right in the middle of the heat! Notice the axis of the Bermuda Ridge..... if it's in that position and the ground stays dry like it is now, I think it's possible we could see a heatwave like we did last July, but with higher humidity. That high is in the perfect position for a strong downslope-- this is almost like seeing a low at the benchmark lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They were around 20C or so (mean for the day, so probably in the low 20s for the afternoon) when Central Park hit 103F, I believe, looking at this map:

post-475-0-19132500-1310540640.gif

You were out in Montana at the time weren't you? In the purple part of the map lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I believe the NW has been cool again this summer.

It has, and the next trough that rolls into the Pacific Northwest, combined with a rising NAO, is going to torch us. Our soil moisture is declining dramatically, and will continue to do so with W/NW winds and highs in the 80s with constant sunshine, so that the next heat wave may have more of an impact. We will have to watch to see if that high pressure over Quebec holds off the ridge a bit more than the 0z ECM and 0z GFS show, however, something I mentioned in another post to you. The Euro has consistently been too aggressive this summer in expanding the ridge northeast against the weakness in the jet over SE Canada; while this weakness should fade some with the change in the NAO modality, there is still some question as to how far northeast the real heat reaches. The 12z ECM showed exactly this scenario, with 850s not getting much past 16-17C in NYC metro with NNE being below average, due to the weakness over Quebec holding its ground.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has, and the next trough that rolls into the Pacific Northwest, combined with a rising NAO, is going to torch us. Our soil moisture is declining dramatically, and will continue to do so with W/NW winds and highs in the 80s with constant sunshine, so that the next heat wave may have more of an impact. We will have to watch to see if that high pressure over Quebec holds off the ridge a bit more than the 0z ECM and 0z GFS show, however, something I mentioned in another post to you. The Euro has consistently been too aggressive this summer in expanding the ridge northeast against the weakness in the jet over SE Canada; while this weakness should fade some with the change in the NAO modality, there is still some question as to how far northeast the real heat reaches. The 12z ECM showed exactly this scenario, with 850s not getting much past 16-17C in NYC metro with NNE being below average, due to the weakness over Quebec holding its ground.

This is like watching for cold and snow in the winter with models being too quick with pattern changes while we wait lol. Eventually it happens, it's just a matter of when.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the NAO going positive does happen its actually IMHO a very good sign for the winter since we saw this in 2009 and 2010 as well IIRC. It seems over the past two years the blocking has generally come and gone in three month groups so figure Aug, Sept, Oct are +NAO which means knock on wood Nov, Dec, Jan are -NAO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also like yesterday, the 6z gfs has the heat as well. Lets see if its subsequent runs maintain it today, same for the ecm.

Suspect we do see another surge of heat on/around the 19th, perhaps more sustained.

That period is the hottest time of year so temps of 90 or low 90's will be only a few above average.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That period is the hottest time of year so temps of 90 or low 90's will be only a few above average.

Models are not showing low 90's.

Euro is showing 98-102+ and this time it looks sustained. Not just transient like every other heat surge this summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...