A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yup, and its been discussed at length across the board that the very very quiet sun (Isotherm is all over this) and the posibility of a decadal -NAO bodes extremely well for continued blocking as we have seen this summer. Yeah, but at this point its going to be difficult to go for anything more than a normal snowfall winter based on my above post.... it may be a case of having a generally cold winter with several minor to moderate events, like we did in 2008-09. We already did something historic last winter when we had back to back 50" snowfall seasons, something that hasn't happened since the 1910s. Could it happen again-- sure-- anything is possible. But it's not something you should try to predict 6 months in advance because the chances are so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yeah, but at this point its going to be difficult to go for anything more than a normal snowfall winter based on my above post.... it may be a case of having a generally cold winter with several minor to moderate events, like we did in 2008-09. We already did something historic last winter when we had back to back 50" snowfall seasons, something that hasn't happened since the 1910s. Could it happen again-- sure-- anything is possible. But it's not something you should try to predict 6 months in advance because the chances are so low. Taking out the snow, the past 2 years, weren't both winters above normal temps? Give me 93-94 cold and the decent snows of that year. 21 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Inside Shinecock bay water temps are 75-77. Just outside the inlet in the ocean, the temps are 70-73. 40-50 miles offshore, the temps are 74-77. I know this beacause, I've been fishing a boat from Shinecock for the past 3 weeks. Its even warmer a little further out (80-90 miles); the Gulf stream has penetrated that area and we read up to 78-80 degrees in some spots. The Tuna and other pelagic fish are all over it (Mahi, Marlin, Tuna of all species, etc.) Thanks-- when do the temps peak, early September? It has to be somewhere between late August and early September I think. Have you ever encountered 80 degree SST near the shore? I imagine a summer with a high amount of onshore winds (like 2005 perhaps) would have the highest SST close to the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Inside Shinecock bay water temps are 75-77. Just outside the inlet in the ocean, the temps are 70-73. 40-50 miles offshore, the temps are 74-77. I know this beacause, I've been fishing a boat from Shinecock for the past 3 weeks. Its even warmer a little further out (80-90 miles); the Gulf stream has penetrated that area and we read up to 78-80 degrees in some spots. The Tuna and other pelagic fish are all over it (Mahi, Marlin, Tuna of all species, etc.) I feel like its been like this the past three summers I fish near fire island inlet in the bay or out a few miles and the temps now are pushing 75 and for the third year in the row in the evening been seeing bottlenose dolphins jumping as I'm anchored fishing in the evening off the fire island inlet, really cool since we live in new york not florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Taking out the snow, the past 2 years, weren't both winters above normal temps? Give me 93-94 cold and the decent snows of that year. 21 events. Yeah, but we were just trying to compare summer to winter patterns in terms of going from heat to snowfall lol. Was last winter above normal in temps? I know we were very cold in December, January and the first part of February, that's why we had all that snowcover that lasted for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I feel like its been like this the past three summers I fish near fire island inlet in the bay or out a few miles and the temps now are pushing 75 and for the third year in the row in the evening been seeing bottlenose dolphins jumping as I'm anchored fishing in the evening off the fire island inlet, really cool since we live in new york not florida Yeah, and we've also seen a proliferation of sharks lol. The other thing that above normal SST does is result in brown algae blooms-- it actually makes the water look pretty grisly, although from what AG has said, we haven't seen much in the way of algae blooms this year so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I feel like its been like this the past three summers I fish near fire island inlet in the bay or out a few miles and the temps now are pushing 75 and for the third year in the row in the evening been seeing bottlenose dolphins jumping as I'm anchored fishing in the evening off the fire island inlet, really cool since we live in new york not florida The entire south shore from Shinecock to Rockaways is INFESTED with large thresher sharks. Even a couple Great Whites. And I'm talking in water only 1/2 mile from shore. Several Threshers of over 500 pounds were caught last week. All within 1 mile of beach. The threshers are so shallow for 3 reasons. a- Spawning b- Warm temps c- Gigantic schools of bunker (Menhaden) all over the south shore Last week I saw pilot whales, thresher sharks, mako sharks and dolphins crashing schools of bunker, 1 mile off of Rockaway beach. An incredible site. 2 friends of mine saw 2 great whites 1/2 mile off of Robert Moses beach on Saturday. Here's a 530 pound thresher shark caught 1 mile off of Long Beach on July 4th: Here's a 500 pound thresher caught in same area on July 5th: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 1pm: EWR: 92 NYC: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 if there is alot of debris from that MCS tomorrow AM, the high temps forecasted are going to have trouble verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 1pm: EWR: 92 NYC: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 86 Is this LGA's first 90 temp of the month? It's 88 here right now, the high so far. The winds are now WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I was thinking that as well but it's forecast to clear out by mid to late morning so temps should have problem soaring if there is alot of debris from that MCS tomorrow AM, the high temps forecasted are going to have trouble verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Is this LGA's first 90 temp of the month? It's 88 here right now, the high so far. The winds are now WSW. No. LGA hit 90 on July 7th. and 89 on both July 5th and 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 July departures thru July 10th: NYC: +1.7 LGA: +1.9 JFK: +4.0 EWR: +3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Taking out the snow, the past 2 years, weren't both winters above normal temps? Give me 93-94 cold and the decent snows of that year. 21 events. Stop eating so much mercury tainted fish. Both past winters were below normal temp wise, this past winter markedly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The entire south shore from Shinecock to Rockaways is INFESTED with large thresher sharks. Even a couple Great Whites. And I'm talking in water only 1/2 mile from shore. Several Threshers of over 500 pounds were caught last week. All within 1 mile of beach. The threshers are so shallow for 3 reasons. a- Spawning b- Warm temps c- Gigantic schools of bunker (Menhaden) all over the south shore Last week I saw pilot whales, thresher sharks, mako sharks and dolphins crashing schools of bunker, 1 mile off of Rockaway beach. An incredible site. 2 friends of mine saw 2 great whites 1/2 mile off of Robert Moses beach on Saturday. Here's a 530 pound thresher shark caught 1 mile off of Long Beach on July 4th: Here's a 500 pound thresher caught in same area on July 5th: I was trying to look for comparisons to summer time coastal sst's for the past 5 years compared to the5 years before that span because to me the water temps for the summer have for sure increased to almost 80 degrees every summer hence the types of fish that have been spotted so close to the coast that normally aren't normally around this area or further offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Stop eating so much mercury tainted fish. Both past winters were below normal temp wise, this past winter markedly so. HAHA. Yeah: 2010-2011 Dec. 2010: -4.5 Jan. 2011: -2.4 Feb. 2011: +1.4 Mar. 2011: -.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The remnant MCV form the Great Lakes MCS is forecast to still be intact as it crosses the area tonight. The MCV should trigger storms over area later tonight into very early Tuesday as it moves through. I think this our best chance of seeing of convection through tomorrow night. The 12z NAM and GFS have the cold front washing out tomorrow afternoon over us. Better shear and forcing arrives too late as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 2pm update: EWR: 94 NYC: 90 LGA: 90 JFK: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Resized to 91% (was 768 x 496) - Click image to enlarge clouds pushing east. Tomorrow its off to the races in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 3pm: EWR: 94 LGA: 89 NYC: 87 JFK: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The end of the 12z euro run brings the heat into the east.....guess its somthing to watch as it has been hinting at it, but we have been down this road before. 93.3 here right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I seriously doubt we will see any activity later tonight, that MCS will move well south of the region, unless more storms fire up later on....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The end of the 12z euro run brings the heat into the east.....guess its somthing to watch as it has been hinting at it, but we have been down this road before. 93.3 here right now... 12z gfs was wc - ridge / ec -trough a complete reversal from prior run. IT'll be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I seriously doubt we will see any activity later tonight, that MCS will move well south of the region, unless more storms fire up later on....we shall see. There is a severe line in NW PA that has a chance of making it here. Figure its 6-8 hours away so that gets it here around 10-11pm tonight. There is about 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE in place and that should be enough to sustain activity once the sun goes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 It's customary for Newark to be 4-6 degrees above all NYC stations. 4pm update: LGA: 90 NYC: 88 JFK: 86 EWR: 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 the NY sites essentially stopped climbing after 1pm when EWR was only 1 to 2 degrees above them. It's customary for Newark to be 4-6 degrees above all NYC stations. 4pm update: LGA: 90 NYC: 88 JFK: 86 EWR: 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 the NY sites essentially stopped climbing after 1pm when EWR was only 1 to 2 degrees above them. LGA dropped but it's now back up to it's high of the day, 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The high here was 88.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The high here was 88.4 86.7 here before the sea breeze picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 86.7 here before the sea breeze picked up. Think you'll hit 90 tomorrow before it comes in? A SW wind for us isnt that bad because it only has about an 8 mile journey across the water.... basically it comes off of Sandy Hook.... for the Hamptons it's more like a 200+ mile fetch over the Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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