Allsnow Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Up to 87.5, another hot day ontap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 06Z GFS also indicates major heat in the long range as well. I guess we'll see. No surprise there. Typically the hottest stretch of weather in this region is last week of July through the first or second week of August especially the last 5 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 No surprise there. Typically the hottest stretch of weather in this region is last week of July through the first or second week of August especially the last 5 years or so. Yeah. But Euro is advertising some very hot weather. Talking 95-100 for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yeah. But Euro is advertising some very hot weather. Talking 95-100 for several days. That would not surprise me. I recall like three years in a row from I think 2005-2007 where the last week of July through the first week of August was the hottest readings of the summer (easily 95+). So it has been commonplace around here in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Nam only has about .1" tomorrow and it's all early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 When would this end of the month heatwave start? I'm having a big party July 30 and the past 2 years i've had it the temperature has been in the upper 90's...wondering if i'll be 3 for 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 July mega heat in the middle of the month = big winter. Only time you will hear me cheer heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 12z NAM has 96-97 degrees for tomorrow. And this is for LGA and NYC. Newark easily 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 12z NAM is also very close to 90 degrees for Wednesday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 July mega heat in the middle of the month = big winter. Only time you will hear me cheer heat. 88, 99, 05, 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll be surprised if we have highs drop much below 86-87 for the foreseeable future (esp west of the city) 12z NAM is also very close to 90 degrees for Wednesday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 one of the most unexpected hottest mornings of my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 It's going to be near 100 tomorrow at some stations with W-NW winds and 850 temps of 20+ C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Newark 91 at 12pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 12z NAM has 96-97 degrees for tomorrow. And this is for LGA and NYC. Newark easily 100. It's going to be near 100 tomorrow at some stations with W-NW winds and 850 temps of 20+ C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 12pm: EWR: 91 NYC: 89 LGA: 89 JFK: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 GFS has around .25" overnight but gone by morning, nothing for the afternoon frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll go with this for tomorrow: LGA: 96 NYC: 96 JFK: 92 EWR: 101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 88, 99, 05, 06 North Atlantic totally different. No reason to think the blocking won't be there this winter given the sleeping sun and what we have seen this summer. And even better, if nina stays very weak, it could be double the pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I'll go with this for tomorrow: LGA: 96 NYC: 96 JFK: 92 EWR: 101 WNW wind will mean JFK is right up there with EWR. I wont settle for 92-- I dont care if I have to make the Ocean boil away But that won't be necessary as we will ROAST on a WNW wind! I want triple digits NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 WNW wind will mean JFK is right up there with EWR. I wont settle for 92-- I dont care if I have to make the Ocean boil away But that won't be necessary as we will ROAST on a WNW wind! I want triple digits NOW! I always look at marine forecasts for winds. Marine forecasts are all calling for SW winds of 5-10 knots for tomorrow. So thats why I went a little less for JFK. Do you think JFK makes it today? JFK: Tonight...SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms mainly after midnight. Tue...SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning. Long Beach area: Tonight: SW wind 15 to 18 kt decreasing to 10 to 13 kt after midnight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Tuesday: SW wind 8 to 11 kt. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail and gusty winds. Seas around 3 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 July mega heat in the middle of the month = big winter. Only time you will hear me cheer heat. We will get into triple digits and I dont care if we have to make the sun go NOVA to get there..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 North Atlantic totally different. No reason to think the blocking won't be there this winter given the sleeping sun and what we have seen this summer. And even better, if nina stays very weak, it could be double the pleasure. what credentials do you have to forecast blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I always look at marine forecasts for winds. Marine forecasts are all calling for SW winds of 5-10 knots for tomorrow. So thats why I went a little less for JFK. Do you think JFK makes it today? Probably not lol. The SW wind issue is hard to determine as they don't penetrate very far inland at all (certainly not like rain-snow lines lol.) For example, Im about 2.5 miles north of Long Beach and it could be like 92 there and 98 here. One of the biggest temperature gradients was last year on April 7th, when BlueWave was in the upper 60s and it was almost 90 here. He had the heat on and I had the AC on..... pretty crazy across a 2.5 mile stretch that's basically just a long walk lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Probably not lol. The SW wind issue is hard to determine as they don't penetrate very far inland at all (certainly not like rain-snow lines lol.) For example, Im about 2.5 miles north of Long Beach and it could be like 92 there and 98 here. One of the biggest temperature gradients was last year on April 7th, when BlueWave was in the upper 60s and it was almost 90 here. He had the heat on and I had the AC on..... pretty crazy across a 2.5 mile stretch that's basically just a long walk lol. Today and tomorrow is forecasted to have stronger SW winds as you head east. By JFK 5-10 knots tomorrow and by Long Beach, 8 to 11 knots; further east even higher. Hamptons area is forecasted to have SW winds of 16knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 88, 99, 05, 06 Yeah but we automatically exclude extreme nina years because they distort the underlying pattern. I wouldn't use 2005 or 2006 as big scorchers either, because I'm using a strict definition of a specific number of 90 degree days and a peak in the triple digits at NYC. That excludes all of the above except for 1999, which is excluded because of the strong enso signal. That also excludes 1991, which was a true scorcher. It does leave 1993, 1995, 2002 and 2009. If you go back through the records, a large majority of epic 50" snowfall winters were preceded by scorching summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Today and tomorrow is forecasted to have stronger SW winds as you head east. By JFK 5-10 knots tomorrow and by Long Beach, 8 to 11 knots; further east even higher. Hamptons area is forecasted to have SW winds of 16knots. Wow, they probably wont get past the mid 80s out in the Hamptons then. Water temps are now up to 76 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Wow, they probably wont get past the mid 80s out in the Hamptons then. Water temps are now up to 76 here. Inside Shinecock bay water temps are 75-77. Just outside the inlet in the ocean, the temps are 70-73. 40-50 miles offshore, the temps are 74-77. I know this beacause, I've been fishing a boat from Shinecock for the past 3 weeks. Its even warmer a little further out (80-90 miles); the Gulf stream has penetrated that area and we read up to 78-80 degrees in some spots. The Tuna and other pelagic fish are all over it (Mahi, Marlin, Tuna of all species, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Yeah but we automatically exclude extreme nina years because they distort the underlying pattern. I wouldn't use 2005 or 2006 as big scorchers either, because I'm using a strict definition of a specific number of 90 degree days and a peak in the triple digits at NYC. That excludes all of the above except for 1999, which is excluded because of the strong enso signal. That also excludes 1991, which was a true scorcher. It does leave 1993, 1995, 2002 and 2009. If you go back through the records, a large majority of epic 50" snowfall winters were preceded by scorching summers. Yup, and its been discussed at length across the board that the very very quiet sun (Isotherm is all over this) and the posibility of a decadal -NAO bodes extremely well for continued blocking as we have seen this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 North Atlantic totally different. No reason to think the blocking won't be there this winter given the sleeping sun and what we have seen this summer. And even better, if nina stays very weak, it could be double the pleasure. I don't know man-- just going by how much we've exceeded the norm the last couple of winters and the 11 year peak summer pattern, and the summers and winters that followed that, plus the history of neutral after nina, I think the low solar is going to have its hands full just giving us a "normal" winter..... something like 08-09 is probably the best we should "expect"-- anything better than that is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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