Dark Energy Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Cont. discussion here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Some decent storms here yesterday. The storm coming into Warren co. last night was a joke. it looked so good but then died out. I stil got some storms earlier here in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Any chance that the area that got hit by storms yesterday see some more today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 got raked about 730 last night IMBY tons of lightning strikes and heavy rain. Hoping today we miss out, dont want the weeds to start growing like crazy Looking forward to a summery and dry hot stretch ahead starting Saturday..any news on a serious heat pulse headed to our area by day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 6z models both give the entire area about .75" of rain later today. Looks like a nice weekend coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 6z models both give the entire area about .75" of rain later today. Looks like a nice weekend coming up. AG3 storm fail, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 AG3 storm fail, oh well. Sun is out now. Newark will jump to 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SPC has us in slight risk today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 got raked about 730 last night IMBY tons of lightning strikes and heavy rain. Hoping today we miss out, dont want the weeds to start growing like crazy Looking forward to a summery and dry hot stretch ahead starting Saturday..any news on a serious heat pulse headed to our area by day 7 0z euro shows major heat in the long range. Days 7-10 and beyond, if extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 My thinking is that the Yankee game is rained out tonight (thats an incredible amount of rain just south of the city) I hope the NAM is correct with the placement of the heaviest rain axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Today doesn't look like a washout. Just scattered thunderstorms later on. Hopefully it waits until overnight tonight. I have a big baseball game later on with my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 12z NAM has a 5.56" bullseye near Isotherm territory and for most of Central Jersey, 4"+ of rain today. Cutoff is insane with 1.25" for south shore of Staten Island to only .25" for areas just north of there. Someone will receive major flooding, if NAM has any clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Today doesn't look like a washout. Just scattered thunderstorms later on. Hopefully it waits until overnight tonight. I have a big baseball game later on with my friends. If NAM is off by even 75 miles with its 5" of rain, then your baseball field will be a swimming pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If NAM is off by even 75 miles with its 5" of rain, then your baseball field will be a swimming pool. Hopefully it has a clue and the storm doesn't trend northward. Of course if this was winter, I would want it to trend northward lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I'm really hoping the NAM has the right idea. I've been through enough flooding over the last two years to last a lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Based on current radar, the NAM is off by about 50-75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Based on current radar, the NAM is off by about 50-75 miles. What radar are you looking at? I'm looking at the weatherunderground radar and it looks spot on with the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 ...TN VLY/SRN APPALACHIANS TO MID ATLANTIC CST TODAY... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN IL SHOULD MOVE STEADILY E TODAY...MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH IMPULSE AMPLIFYING ESE ACROSS ONT. AHEAD OF THE IL TROUGH...RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE LWR TN VLY. A BELT OF SEASONABLY STRONG 35-40 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL PRECEDE/ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES AS THEY CONTINUE E ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT LWR LVLS...WEAK STNRY FRONT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPR JET...SIMILARLY ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...AND LEE TROUGH E OF THE MOUNTAINS EACH WILL SERVE TO FOCUS DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE /PW AOA 2.00 INCHES/...AND EXPECTED CORRIDORS OF STRONG SFC HEATING...SETUP COULD YIELD NUMEROUS BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WITH DMGG WIND AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...DESPITE MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES. WHILE A BRIEF SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY OCCUR...MAINLY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT. ONE OR TWO LARGER ENE-MOVING MCSS MAY EVOLVE...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN NC...VA AND ERN MD/DE/NJ. FARTHER N...AN ISOLD SVR RISK MAY EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE ONT DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER WRN/CNTRL NY. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVELY TO POINTS FARTHER S...BUT MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY AUGMENT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The HRRR seems to have 2 distinct areas of convection this aftenoon.. One a bit upstate across the mid-hudson valley and the other across southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The HRRR seems to have 2 distinct areas of convection this aftenoon.. One a bit upstate across the mid-hudson valley and the other across southern NJ Nice hole over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 What radar are you looking at? I'm looking at the weatherunderground radar and it looks spot on with the Nam. The radar out of Mt. Holly on NWS site The edge of the activity seems to slice right through Sussex County whereas the NAM has the heaviest stuff saying south of I-95 We shall see, hard to extrapoliate but the sun we had here probably helped to increase activity a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The radar out of Mt. Holly on NWS site The edge of the activity seems to slice right through Sussex County whereas the NAM has the heaviest stuff saying south of I-95 We shall see, hard to extrapoliate but the sun we had here probably helped to increase activity a bit further north As thought, its a big slug of precip with embedded convection. Lets see how it progresses over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 New HRRR brings it thru NYC through hour 6 with more to the west moving easterly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Like the NAM, its keeps the 2nd, bigger batch just south of the NYC area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Nice hole over NYC. well, the 13Z update does have some development across eastern PA and central NJ, affecting the southern parts of the city during the early afternoon hours.. then most of the activity is well south into southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 081544Z - 081645Z A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 1600 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -11C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2011 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Skies in Smithtown were as black as coal yesterday, but the storm moved too far to south to give us any rain. Hopefully today will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 16:30 outlook has 30% risk of damaging winds into Northern NJ, NYC and LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 timing looks between 3 and later for most of the area. Resized to 91% (was 768 x 496) - Click image to enlarge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Some nwd moving cells developing in SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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