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SC/NC/TN/VA Clipper Storm Obs


phil882

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And people wonder why North Carolinians believe that if it thunders in winter/late fall/early spring, it will snow within a week! It keeps being proven to be true!

The rule I have heard was tornados in late fall and it will SN within a week, not sure about the thunderstorm part...

Put the SN board out in it's usual unimpeded spot around 10am this morning before I went shopping. After this event, I am going to paint it white with some graphics for effect. It is a 2'x4' piece of 3/4" white oak plywood, that my neighbor gave me last year. Hoping everything wraps up in the early am so as to get an accurate measurement before dawn, if we see accumulations, which is in question still.

officially PGV will end up 6 degrees below the forecasted max today of 45. 39 at the airport and OVC.

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NORTH CAROLINA

...AVERY COUNTY...

NEWLAND 2.0 1218 PM 12/4 5 E

FLAT SPRINGS 1.1 100 PM 12/4

...BURKE COUNTY...

JONAS RIDGE 1.5 1240 PM 12/4

...HAYWOOD COUNTY...

MAGGIE VALLEY 2.0 1230 PM 12/4 CATALOOCHE SKI AREA

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201012041934-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

NORTH CAROLINA

...AVERY COUNTY...

FLAT SPRINGS 1.7 100 PM 12/4

ELK PARK 0.6 700 AM 12/4

LINVILLE FALLS 0.1 715 AM 12/4

...MITCHELL COUNTY...

BAKERSVILLE 0.3 700 AM 12/4

...YANCEY COUNTY...

BURNSVILLE 0.2 720 AM 12/4

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000

FXUS62 KRAH 041943

AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

240 PM EST SAT DEC 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL

CROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDY... COLD... AND DRY

WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 235 PM SATURDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTH CENTRAL NC WITH ONE

TO TWO INCHES ACCUMULATION EXPECTED MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES...

WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF ABOUT A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH

ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IN THE TRIAD REGION SO FAR WITH SNOW CONTINUING

TO FALL ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS... D.O.T. WEB CAMS... AND

MEASUREMENTS FROM THE VERTICALLY-POINTING MOBILE MICRO RAIN RADAR

LOCATED NEAR GSO. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285K-300K LAYER CONTINUES

TO STRENGTHEN ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FINE SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE

INCLUDING THE HI RES RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND OUR LOCAL WRF... WHICH

DEPICTS THE MAXIMUM ASCENT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC

GROWTH ZONE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NC OCCURING IN THE MID TO LATE

AFTERNOON. THIS LIFT HAS BEEN SUFFICENTLY STRONG TO OVERCOME THE

INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING

QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIP. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR

HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THIS

AFTERNOON.

MODELS SHOW STRONG MOIST UPGLIDE PERSISTING THROUGH 00Z... WHEN THE

SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER FAR UPSTATE SC... ON PACE

TO TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE NC/SC BORDER THROUGH THE EVENING TO OFF

THE ILM COAST BY 06Z. DURING THIS TIME THE BEST MID LEVEL DPVA

ARRIVES (ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG VORTICITY LOBE DROPPING SE THROUGH

VA AND NC) IN CONJUCTION WITH INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE

LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 140+ KT UPPER JET CORE PUSHING

TOWARD NC FROM THE NW. AS A RESULT... THE SPC WRF / LOCAL WRF / HI

RES RAPID REFRESH / 13KM RUC / 12KM NAM-WRF ALL SHOW STEADY PRECIP

PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC INTO MID EVENING.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY RUNNING ALONG/NORTH OF THE

HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BASED ON THE SMALL SCALE BANDED

STRUCTURE OF THE SNOW AND LOCALLY BRIEF HEAVIER SNOWFALL... HAVE

UPPED THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL TO 1-2 INCHES. THIS IS BASED ON A

SNOW/LIQUID RATIO OF ABOUT 8:1 TO 9:1... IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY

AND WITH RATIOS OBSERVED SO FAR IN THE TRIAD. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE

PREDOMINANTLY ON THE GRASSY AREAS... ALTHOUGH THE SNOW IS COMING

DOWN AT A HEAVY ENOUGH RATE WITHIN SOME OF THESE MESOSCALE BANDS

THAT A DUSTING MAY STICK ONTO UNTRAVELED ROADS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT... WE

BEGIN TO DRY OUT ALOFT WEST TO EAST... SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

AS A DRY POCKET UPSTREAM OVER SRN IL INTO KY. LOSING SATURATION IN

THE -12C TO -18C LAYER WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO LIGHT DRIZZLE OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT. WITH FORECAST LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE

FROM 28-33... ALL BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE ON

ELEVATED SURFACES. THE RELATIVELY WARM SOIL (4 INCH TEMPS STILL

40-50F) AND PAVEMENT TEMPS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO VERY FEW PROBLEMS ON

THE ROADS... AND THE PERSISTENT THICK CLOUDS WILL TEMPER OVERNIGHT

COOLING... HOWEVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BE TREACHEROUS AND WE

MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE

OVERNIGHT AND DAWN HOURS FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. WILL

EVALUATE THIS NEED FURTHER EARLY THIS EVENING... BUT ADVISORY OR

NOT... MOTORISTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL NEED TO BE VERY CAUTIOUS

AND DRIVE SLOWLY. -GIH

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