snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Watch us get totally railed by a NW flow event tomorrow Think that could happen? Where do we look tomorrow for the formation of storms? NY again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Meh not so sure about tomorrow. COuld we see some isolated stuff pop? Sure but I think it will be fairly hard once again. Dews will not be as high as today, while ML temps may be a bit cooler they are still fairly warm and the mid level lapse rates totally blow...with this there will not be much in the way of instability tomorrow. Like today, there will be a fairly decent mid level cap in place around 650-550mb. Doesn't look like there will be a great deal of low-level convergence with the sfc flow and the BL winds pretty much out of the northwest. Fairly dry in the mid levels and this should mix down into the lower levels and to the surface as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 00z NAM has some good precip for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Meh not so sure about tomorrow. COuld we see some isolated stuff pop? Sure but I think it will be fairly hard once again. Dews will not be as high as today, while ML temps may be a bit cooler they are still fairly warm and the mid level lapse rates totally blow...with this there will not be much in the way of instability tomorrow. Like today, there will be a fairly decent mid level cap in place around 650-550mb. Doesn't look like there will be a great deal of low-level convergence with the sfc flow and the BL winds pretty much out of the northwest. Fairly dry in the mid levels and this should mix down into the lower levels and to the surface as well. mid-levels will do the work. maybe not too much lightning - perhaps just ominous looking downpours with gusty winds/pea sized hail or something like that? best bet would seem to be the eastern half of the region but everyone stands a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 mid-levels will do the work. maybe not too much lightning - perhaps just ominous looking downpours with gusty winds/pea sized hail or something like that? best bet would seem to be the eastern half of the region but everyone stands a shot. Looks like there may be a bit better convergence across eastern sections and this is where most hi-res models initiate much of the shower/t'storm activity and it isn't until very late in the day...this is when ML temps do cool a bit as well and the ML cap seems to be much weaker so perhaps we can get a few cells to pop. Not sure if we can get anything tall enough for hail but certainly gusty winds given dry mid levels and steep low level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks like there may be a bit better convergence across eastern sections and this is where most hi-res models initiate much of the shower/t'storm activity and it isn't until very late in the day...this is when ML temps do cool a bit as well and the ML cap seems to be much weaker so perhaps we can get a few cells to pop. Not sure if we can get anything tall enough for hail but certainly gusty winds given dry mid levels and steep low level lapse rates. wbzs crash during the evening. imo, one of those days where the typical parameters aren't going to provide a big assist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 wbzs crash during the evening. imo, one of those days where the typical parameters aren't going to provide a big assist I didn't see that. What do they fall too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I didn't see that. What do they fall too? i think their down to like 8500 feet by mid-evening. i don't think will have a kevin 300 page LSR but i won't be surprised to see some marginal svr either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 i think their down to like 8500 feet by mid-evening. i don't think will have a kevin 300 page LSR but i won't be surprised to see some marginal svr either. Oh crap, that is pretty low. Yeah we def could see some hail then, maybe even something close to 1'' especially with the dry mid levels which would certainly help the hail situation out in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 i think their down to like 8500 feet by mid-evening. i don't think will have a kevin 300 page LSR but i won't be surprised to see some marginal svr either. This might go into early evening too. Those temps just plummet by 00z and some of the models have what looks like to be one last band accompanying the front and supported by that s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This might go into early evening too. Those temps just plummet by 00z and some of the models have what looks like to be one last band accompanying the front and supported by that s/w. When does it start you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 i think their down to like 8500 feet by mid-evening. i don't think will have a kevin 300 page LSR but i won't be surprised to see some marginal svr either. You think this could be comparable to that line we had on 6/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Interesting.. both hires ncep models hit EMA and SENH good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 When does it start you think? Maybe after 2-3pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Maybe after 2-3pm or so. Need to mow the lawn tonight..Hold it off till after 6:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 We could all use some rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 That is a pretty strong vortmax indicated on the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 wrf really lights us up this afternoon/evening. quite a bit of rain for eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 wrf really lights us up this afternoon/evening. quite a bit of rain for eastern MA On phone can you post maps? You're gonna get smoked I think.. hopefully SNH can get it on it when storms are strengthening, but I think this will be a EMA only deal All models are honing in on EMA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 wrf really lights us up this afternoon/evening. quite a bit of rain for eastern MA Congrats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Congrats? yeah i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah i hope Watering has been a daily ritual now. Could use a little natural help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah i hope Looks like mostly a ENE special..Stuff probably fires over RI up to ORH and moves SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Looks like mostly a ENE special..Stuff probably fires over RI up to ORH and moves SE You guys have a good time yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 You guys have a good time yesterday? Yeah we drank at Tia's for an hour..then had this huge scavenger hunt for 3 hours in Quincy Market..and had to do all kinds of crazy things during it...they had hired people to be prt of it..and we had to find them in different stores, and bars and stuff. Really good time. Then we ended with dinner and more drinks at Ned Bevins from 4-7.. Fun day..but it was just balls out hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 so what's this feature that's fired up some precip in PA? on the satellite and water vapor loop it looks like a dry frontal passage...almost through MA and the only convection that fired up along it is the stuff in PA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah we drank at Tia's for an hour..then had this huge scavenger hunt for 3 hours in Quincy Market..and had to do all kinds of crazy things during it...they had hired people to be prt of it..and we had to find them in different stores, and bars and stuff. Really good time. Then we ended with dinner and more drinks at Ned Bevins from 4-7.. Fun day..but it was just balls out hot Yeah Ned Devine's is pretty cool. Good spot on a Friday or Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah Ned Devine's is pretty cool. Good spot on a Friday or Saturday night. Yeah we had the upstairs bar area reserved..Food was good...and they had Guinness which Tia's didn't. Beer selection there sucked. I was forced to drink Stella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow at the 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow at the 12z Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.