snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 God those storms are nice in Michigan.. just one time I'd like to see something like that in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I know its not the greatest model past 3 hours lol but the RUC keeps pegging the 05z to 07z time frame for a line of showers/storms.. Around 3-5 am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I know its not the greatest model past 3 hours lol but the RUC keeps pegging the 05z to 07z time frame for a line of showers/storms.. Around 3-5 am? 5z to 7z is 1-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 5z to 7z is 1-3am Seems in line with BOX thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 God those storms are nice in Michigan.. just one time I'd like to see something like that in here You want the MDT risk further north. That's a little too far south for my liking, because chances are...those good mid level lapse rates go with the complex. If that stuff was rolling through the U.P. of Michigan, I'd be more excited. It doesn't mean you can't get good storms, but the days that had good severe here, had it further north into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 You want the MDT risk further north. That's a little too far south for my liking, because chances are...those good mid level lapse rates go with the complex. If that stuff was rolling through the U.P. of Michigan, I'd be more excited. It doesn't mean you can't get good storms, but the days that had good severe here, had it further north into Michigan. I remember before 6/1.. there were awesome storms in the UP and northern Michigan.. good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 SPC WRF likes some predawn action fwiw. It's not very enthusiastic for tomorrow, but that is at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 SPC WRF likes some predawn action fwiw. It's not very enthusiastic for tomorrow, but that is at the end of its range. Usually when we get some pre dawn action..the afternoon tends to rock with cox out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 SPC WRF likes some predawn action fwiw. It's not very enthusiastic for tomorrow, but that is at the end of its range. That is what the RUC has been showing for the past several runs also.. Although it seems as though the best stuff is south of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Euro seems to wan to drive a complex through at least nrn New England overnight, but given how these things like to move a bit to the right...would think SNE has a shot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Euro seems to wan to drive a complex through at least nrn New England overnight, but given how much I like weenies that curve a bit to the right...would like a couple shots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Euro seems to wan to drive a complex through at least nrn New England overnight, but given how these things like to move a bit to the right...would think SNE has a shot too. Most models now have some type of system coming through tonight around 1-5am.. whether its an MCS with severe that's another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Most models now have some type of system coming through tonight around 1-5am.. whether its an MCS with severe that's another story Prolly wind up a cluster of light rain under a dead MCS cirrus shield. ...don't forget to wait up for it ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Prolly wind up a cluster of light rain under a dead MCS cirrus shield. ...don't forget to wait up for it ... I think I see our "MCS" in western NY now lol.. nice 30dbz echoes.. we might see a flash of lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I think I see our "MCS" in western NY now lol.. nice 30dbz echoes.. we might see a flash of lightning yeah unless something fires off NW of BUF in Ontario. Forget anything that is currently rumbling through OH in route to western PA/WV .... Our weather will have no part of that. Whatever happens will have to be born anew. The current stuff will peel S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Tomorrow is really uncertain. Might not be much except for Bob and Phil, but timing is everything. An hour or so slower, and more of SNE is in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 we will have sever weather on tue for sne area dont worry . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Tomorrow is over..Move along ..nothing to see..Too early for the pre frontal trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I think we (someone) gets destroyed before the cool, dry airmass punches in, personally. That probably deserves a few buns, I'm liking the setup despite a few negatives still lingering. Watch, we get a dry cf passage now. I totally agree. While at work the news was on and got to wee storms in the upper mid-west...very good sign to see. Time for me to look over some model data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I totally agree. While at work the news was on and got to wee storms in the upper mid-west...very good sign to see. Time for me to look over some model data. Give it up dude. Euro and GFS both have zero qpf over SNE tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 We'd better start praying that weak line of showers over CNY intensifies..otherwise this is a dry fropa for 98% of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Oh fook. Just looked at the 15z SPC SREF and it virtually gives us zero chance tomorrow...guessing it moves the pre-frontal through too early and the wind shift occurs and the dews lower and instability drops like a rock. 12z NAM/GFS and the 18z GFS also are showing this. Definitely a major concern but this is the pre frontal trough were talking about, not the cold front, models don't really handle this all too well so all hope shouldn't be lost quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Oh fook. Just looked at the 15z SPC SREF and it virtually gives us zero chance tomorrow...guessing it moves the pre-frontal through too early and the wind shift occurs and the dews lower and instability drops like a rock. 12z NAM/GFS and the 18z GFS also are showing this. Definitely a major concern but this is the pre frontal trough were talking about, not the cold front, models don't really handle this all too well so all hope shouldn't be lost quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 outside shot of a slight chance of a gusty sprinkle tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Congrats Maine... Again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Well latest model data continues to have a very fast timing with the pre-frontal trough. Have to see things in the AM. Only need about 3-4 hours slower timing which is not impossible at this juncture so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Also may have to contend with a cap between 700-650mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 This just completely sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 What a PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 With the clouds mostly gone, I could see a few cells over se mass, possibly. Tomorrow could offer a few as well. Hopefully we get some rain....could use some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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