Ellinwood Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Started a new thread since the old one is 61 pages... Day 1 5% See Text. Day 2 15% Slight Risk for the eastern areas south of Leesburg/BWI. ...MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... THE EXACT DEGREE/SPATIAL LOCATION OF STRONGEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC/STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/DELMARVA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF VA/NC/DELMARVA. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY WELL-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ----- Other than that not really anything to add from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 Getting shafted, so to speak Day 2 update: Text... pretty similar to this morning. Fighting against possible cloud cover, "meh" worthy ML lapse rates and weak LL winds... a similar story with the last FROPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Legit. TOR risk today in most of the region... DCA-RIC corridor looking like the best dynamics+instability combo. per the latest models. The discussion from earlier... ...NERN STATES AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE TN VLY... TWO-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY INTO FRIDAY. SRN JET WILL CARRY A MID-LEVEL WAVE FROM THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST 40 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW AND SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. AT THE SFC...BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-OH VLY WILL LINGER ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A LEE TROUGH EVOLVES TO THE E OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ROBUST TO THE S OF THE FRONT AND PARTICULARLY E OF THE LEE TROUGH THIS AFTN/EVE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SURGING TO 1.75+". THIS IN CONCERT WITH POCKETS OF ROBUST HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TSTMS...BOTH ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FROM CNTRL NJ TO THE MID-OH/TN VLYS AND ALONG/E OF THE LEE TROUGH IN SRN MD/WRN VA SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. WHILE A BRIEF SUPERCELL MAY BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION/...WET MICROBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT. EVENTUALLY...A COUPLE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED MCS/S MAY EVOLVE ACROSS VA AND THE CAROLINAS BY EVENING WITH AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 30 PERCENT WIND!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This afternoon Can you pass on the link for the simulated reflectivity...thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Can you pass on the link for the simulated reflectivity...thanks! I think he and I use the same site... it's the WRF-NMM http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ You can type 12 into the end of the link (replacing the 00) for the 12z run. Careful, though... sometimes the run doesn't get updated. Always check the date. I also like pulling up the Northeast part of the HRRR reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I think he and I use the same site... it's the WRF-NMM http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ You can type 12 into the end of the link (replacing the 00) for the 12z run. Careful, though... sometimes the run doesn't get updated. Always check the date. I also like pulling up the Northeast part of the HRRR reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ Thanks man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I think he and I use the same site... it's the WRF-NMM http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/00/ You can type 12 into the end of the link (replacing the 00) for the 12z run. Careful, though... sometimes the run doesn't get updated. Always check the date. I also like pulling up the Northeast part of the HRRR reflectivity: http://rapidrefresh.....gov/hrrrconus/ Yep same one I use! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 im not sold on much svr but i've got my camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This is serious business with all the flash flooding watches going up. I'm ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 LWX has the severe wording in their 1030 update to the zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 13z RUC... let's see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 What does that show Ellinwood? I was never good at reading Skew-Ts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 What does that show Ellinwood? I was never good at reading Skew-Ts... Wind profile looks pretty nice on that to my untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 What does that show Ellinwood? I was never good at reading Skew-Ts... Moderate instability (1500-2000 CAPE est.), about 80 degrees directional shear (good), meh LL speed shear (5 kts SFC.... EWWWWW to 20 kts around 650mb), good enough ML/UL speed shear, good LL lapse rates, okay ML lapse rates. Temp of 85 (yeah right should be more like 90), dewpoint of 75 (will probably be closer to 70-72... RUC likes to overdo dewpoints). All in all, it shows a decent/good look at severe (compared to a typical summer setup). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 I should probably add that the sounding will probably be off because it looks like the RUC has too much precip. on the map (at least for mid-afternoon, but it could be right), and the storms it has would alter the wind/temp profiles a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Crushed yesterday in Dundalk, se baltimore county. 70+mph winds, trees and limbs down everywhere, 3.1" of rain and quarter sized hail. Power was out 12 hours until 6am this morning. Wow, winds today would take down a lot of the weakened and moistened trees, so it could get ugly this afternoon, but seriously yesterday was one of the strongest wind events I've seen here in Dundalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Crushed yesterday in Dundalk, se baltimore county. 70+mph winds, trees and limbs down everywhere, 3.1" of rain and quarter sized hail. Power was out 12 hours until 6am this morning. Wow, winds today would take down a lot of the weakened and moistened trees, so it could get ugly this afternoon, but seriously yesterday was one of the strongest wind events I've seen here in Dundalk. Never lost power, but I did get 4 inches of rain overnight from a storm that stalled over me for over an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Never lost power, but I did get 4 inches of rain overnight from a storm that stalled over me for over an hour. Wait, you got rain? Impossible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 MD issued... watch likely in an hour or so... and I am in florida on vacation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 Man those clouds moved in fast! Not better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 today should have its own thread... storms/flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Man those clouds moved in fast! Not better... still hazy sunshine here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 still hazy sunshine here Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 today should have its own thread... storms/flooding potential. OP Fixed. still hazy sunshine here A low Cu deck has happened upon my area. Some peeks of sun/cirrus above me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I don't even care about severe weather I just want rain!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 This looks to be a pretty decent day for some severe storms in areas... pretty unstable in spots on mesoanalysis.. along with some decent shear.. and definite lift.. I think the biggest threat is heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 MD: A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WITH THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS JUST TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1200 TO 1600 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS SFC TEMPS WARM. THIS COMBINED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -8C TO -11C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If the fronts around after dark there will probably be some sick light shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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