0z euro

[tombo82685]

this might be wayyy out there...But what are the odds of the clipper and the southern energy "merging"?

if the clipper was further south i would say there is a remote possibility. The euro has the low sitting a couple hundred miles north of toronto.

[earthlight]

you were talking bout the hr 192-198 storm chances and that was what i was commenting on. That if the impacts from that clipper are still present it may not be good for nyc philly area

Gotcha...regarding that storm..I mainly was just referring to the fact that although the front passes...the model still develops a frontal wave that misses to the east. By that time the cold air is well established.

[tombo82685]

I think what earthlight is talking about is that the clipper dies out and a new low can dominate.

so ala 0z gfs?

[Isotherm]

Miller B's are amazing for the nyc area and NE... But we just need some run to run agreement here to get me excited

Disagree, I'd take Miller A's over Miller B's any day. The latter are generally great for New England and eastern LI, just ok for NYC/NJ, and terrible for PHL southwestward. Have to worry much more about dry-slots, energy transfers, coastal pcpn changeovers, etc. IMO Miller B's are a helluva lot more stressful for us. Miller A's like last winter you can breathe easy as they slide up the coast w/ tons of moisture.

[tombo82685]

Gotcha...I mainly was just referring to the fact that although the front passes...the model still develops a frontal wave that misses to the east. By that time the cold air is well established.

yea on the euro, its cold enough as you described. That scenario would plan out well because the wave forms further south and stleast stops the southerly winds, also gives it time for the cold front to get closer and pass. I wonder though, if it would still be cold enough if that low was ooo 100 miles or so off nj, if that front would get hung up?

[earthlight]

Disagree, I'd take Miller A's over Miller B's any day. The latter are generally great for New England and eastern LI, just ok for NYC/NJ, and terrible for PHL southwestward. Have to worry much more about dry-slots, energy transfers, coastal pcpn changeovers, etc. IMO Miller B's are a helluva lot more stressful for us. Miller A's like last winter you can breathe easy as they slide up the coast w/ tons of moisture.

Strongly agree..but a good Miller B is about as good as it's going to get in this pattern.

Jan 2005/Dec 2005...both examples of Miller B's which featured rapidly approaching dryslots.

[tombo82685]

Disagree, I'd take Miller A's over Miller B's any day. The latter are generally great for New England and eastern LI, just ok for NYC/NJ, and terrible for PHL southwestward. Have to worry much more about dry-slots, energy transfers, coastal pcpn changeovers, etc. IMO Miller B's are a helluva lot more stressful for us. Miller A's like last winter you can breathe easy as they slide up the coast w/ tons of moisture.

agreed, ant and i had this convo tonight on which we would prefer. I would take miller A anyday because everyone is in the game, and they are also the "true bombs" with a source region from the gulf, not atl.

[CooL]

Disagree, I'd take Miller A's over Miller B's any day. The latter are generally great for New England and eastern LI, just ok for NYC/NJ, and terrible for PHL southwestward. Have to worry much more about dry-slots, energy transfers, coastal pcpn changeovers, etc. IMO Miller B's are a helluva lot more stressful for us. Miller A's like last winter you can breathe easy as they slide up the coast w/ tons of moisture.

oh absolutely miller A's are way better. But there are no miller A's on the table here with no southern jet.. When i say amazing im talking 10"+ potential with miller B's, which there is a significant chance that verifies around here when one pops off the coast.

[A-L-E-X]

Strongly agree..but a good Miller B is about as good as it's going to get in this pattern.

Jan 2005/Dec 2005...both examples of Miller B's which featured rapidly approaching dryslots.

Our best Miller B was Feb 1978

[tombo82685]

lol timber

[A-L-E-X]

lol timber

Whats the lowest it ever got to last winter?

[tombo82685]

Whats the lowest it ever got to last winter?

no clue, but thats impressive

[SnowGoose69]

Disagree, I'd take Miller A's over Miller B's any day. The latter are generally great for New England and eastern LI, just ok for NYC/NJ, and terrible for PHL southwestward. Have to worry much more about dry-slots, energy transfers, coastal pcpn changeovers, etc. IMO Miller B's are a helluva lot more stressful for us. Miller A's like last winter you can breathe easy as they slide up the coast w/ tons of moisture.

There is a big difference between PHL and NYC when it comes to Miller Bs, they are generally good for NYC as long as they do not track too close to the coast and you do not have the high positioned in the middle of the Atlantic which causes the SE flow....12/30/2000 and 1/28/04 are two good recent ones.

[A-L-E-X]

no clue, but thats impressive

I wonder if the strength of this thing and even moreso its endurance is a sign we could have a strong -nao winter..... screw enso lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Im starting to tune out the enso-philes, because people concentrate on enso way too much for our part of the country..... its like a media darling.  Anything which beats enso makes me happy because perhaps it will teach them in the future to put more weight on other factors.  I think the NWS has it right when they said they dont know what the long range weather will be like out here because the nao means much more for us than enso does.

Perhaps, like Nate thinks, there is some sort of solar influence-- which might result in a high snowfall strong la nina year like 1903-04 and 1916-17

[winterwx21]

I'm not talking about the first event...that reinforces the blocking. The second event is the one I am interested in..December 12-14. That surface low tracks over the Mid Atlantic and then directly over the 40/70.

But that's the problem ... it's 10 days away. It was not long ago that the Euro was advertising interesting potential for the week of the 6th in the long range, and of course that fell apart. These models are not great in the long range, so I'm not gonna get excited about potential that is 10 days down the road. Need to see something closer to 5 days out for it to get me excited.

[forkyfork]

There is a big difference between PHL and NYC when it comes to Miller Bs, they are generally good for NYC as long as they do not track too close to the coast and you do not have the high positioned in the middle of the Atlantic which causes the SE flow....12/30/2000 and 1/28/04 are two good recent ones.

xmas 02, dec 03, feb 05

[SnowGoose69]

xmas 02, dec 03, feb 05

Christmas 02 was a Miller AB...that formed quite far south for a true Miller B.

[A-L-E-X]

Christmas 02 was a Miller AB...that formed quite far south for a true Miller B.

what about Feb 1978? and Mar 1960?

Besides the Miller B that form too close to the coast there are also the late redevelopers that give us a cold and dry NW flow while its snowing heavily across eastern NE

[SnowGoose69]

what about Feb 1978? and Mar 1960?

Besides the Miller B that form too close to the coast there are also the late redevelopers that give us a cold and dry NW flow while its snowing heavily across eastern NE

And the ones that screw you over with bizarre dry slots like April 1997 and the 2nd phase of the December 03 event where no real sustained large scale area of snow could ever really get going because there was a megaband all day in E NJ and C Suffolk messing everything up elsewhere.

[CooL]

i love how i sparked this convo w/o even saying which one is better than the other, isotherm put words in my mouth lol miller A's are no doubt a safer play around here, but il take miller B potential in this pattern anyday..

[A-L-E-X]

And the ones that screw you over with bizarre dry slots like April 1997 and the 2nd phase of the December 03 event where no real sustained large scale area of snow could ever really get going because there was a megaband all day in E NJ and C Suffolk messing everything up elsewhere.

Yeah, I love the ones that put 6-8 inches on the Jersey Coast, screw NYC and LI with 1-2" and then put a foot plus in New England lol.

[Neblizzard]

240 Looks like it deepens down to 982

The La Nina induced jet stream will not allow a +PNA pattern to develop, that is clearly evident on the models.....

[A-L-E-X]

And the ones that screw you over with bizarre dry slots like April 1997 and the 2nd phase of the December 03 event where no real sustained large scale area of snow could ever really get going because there was a megaband all day in E NJ and C Suffolk messing everything up elsewhere.

You have a really good memory-- I remember predictions of 8-12" here for April 1997 and the Jersey Shore got 6-8" and New England got feet of snow and a scant 2 inches here lol.  Maybe April 1996 was a Miller B too, because the Jersey Shore got that same 8" NYC got screwed with under an inch-- I got 5" and eastern LI got a foot plus!

Dec 2003-- the first day was actually much here than the second day-- even though the rain snow line was like 5 miles south of me on the first day.  Of course, when youre that close to the line but still just to its north it can mean more snowfall accumulations because of the amount of moisture available.

We had 8 inches here on the first day and picked up much less on the second day even though it was supposed to be better, because of colder air and higher snowfall ratios.  We have had so few two day snowstorms, I was really looking forward to that......

[A-L-E-X]

Farmingdale got 20" in that Dec 03 storm-- 14" here and 13" in NYC

[A-L-E-X]

The La Nina induced jet stream will not allow a +PNA pattern to develop, that is clearly evident on the models.....

Hopefully the -NAO will be enough for us.

[isnice]

It seems as though every day we're looking at a different storm that's pushed back two days from what we were looking at before. I agree, the pattern looks very favorable towards mid-month, but that's really all we should be looking at- not pin-pointing storms this far out (especially from the euro).

[phlwx]

love the -28 850 reading near James Bay at hour 240...nice and chilled.

[Quakertown needs snow]

these runs are getting more interesting.

winter is locking in for a while.

[Animal]

hr 66 has snow showers and squalls for the area

good morning tombo. thank you again for the euro input.

can you define area. Does this imply the PHL metro area or entire Mt Holly forecast zone