SNE Hurricane Thread

[OSUmetstud]

this is an unusual post.

Ed is a very unusual guy

[CT Rain]

this is an unusual post.

But I'm looking forward to that Ike PNS!

[Srain]

lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Toilets not flushing is why, separate from cases and cases of bottled water, one fills the bathtubs and empty gallon plastic water and milk jugs with tap water before the storm. Yellow, let it mellow, brown, flush it down.

BTW, Mexican votive candles, sold at most of the super markets like Fiesta that cater to the Mexican or Mexican-American shopper, are somewhat safer than regular candles for a bathroom night light.

My personal favorite, and there is plenty of wax and multiple candles left from last time, San Judas Tadeo, or St. Jude, of the children's hospital fame. As a Catholic (I have dead relatives who lived in South Boston, and would go to Sacred Heart in North Quincy when visiting my grandmother), I have asked San Judas to offer prayers to Jesus for difficult causes. Oh, bonus, back in the day, his name was 'Yehuda'...

Off to look for "Ike" PNS from one of the Ohio NWS offices...

What in the hell is going on here?

[HurricaneJosh]

Here is the list of New England/NY hurricane landfalls from HRD/AOML

Sep 1858 Cat 1

Sep 1869 Cat 3

Aug 1893 Cat 1

Sep 1896 Cat 1

Jul 1916 Cat 1

Sep 1938 Cat 3

Aug 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1960 Cat 2

Jul 1972 Cat 1

Sep 1985 Cat 3

Aug 1991 Cat 2

4 of the 5 majors affected New England in September

7 of the 12 hurricanes affected New England in September

Gloria is still listed as a major in this list, but as most know, it is likely that it wasn't a major when it made landfall in Long Island.

Oh, and here are all of the official NY/New England landfalls for the 1851-1930 period, which have been reanalyzed and approved:

1858 Sep - NY1, CT1, RI1, MA1 - 80 kt

1869 Sep - RI3, MA3, NY1, CT1 - 100 kt

1869 Oct - ME2, MA1 - 90 kt ("Saxby's Gale")

1893 Aug - NY1, CT1 - 75 kt ("Midnight Storm")

1894 Oct - NY1, CT1, RI1

1896 Sep - RI1, MA1 - 70 kt

1924 Aug - MA1 - 65 kt

So the official list is a little different than that list, above. The list above leaves out one of the 1869 'canes and the 1894 and 1924 'canes, and incorrectly lists an impact in 1916.

[Tropopause_Fold]

all we need is a floydbuster video and maybe a rainstorm post and we are set.

[free_man]

Here is the list of New England/NY hurricane landfalls from HRD/AOML

Sep 1858 Cat 1

Sep 1869 Cat 3

Aug 1893 Cat 1

Sep 1896 Cat 1

Jul 1916 Cat 1

Sep 1938 Cat 3

Aug 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1954 Cat 3

Sep 1960 Cat 2

Jul 1972 Cat 1

Sep 1985 Cat 3

Aug 1991 Cat 2

4 of the 5 majors affected New England in September

7 of the 12 hurricanes affected New England in September

Gloria is still listed as a major in this list, but as most know, it is likely that it wasn't a major when it made landfall in Long Island.

You said infamous in your reply...I don't consider some of these infamous. 1944, 1927? and not sure which others are missing from the list.

Also omitted are the disasterous Connie and Diane in '55, both August storms and catastrophic flood producers as you know.

[am19psu]

all we need is a floydbuster video and maybe a rainstorm post and we are set.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011070706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Ed Lizard]

But that occurred with sunshine helping to mix down strong winds aloft. There is always an inversion present on the east side of SNE 'canes, but yeah you can get strong winds to mix down. These winds are literally just off the deck.

Granted, the buoy off Nantucket is a depressing 17º.

But as far a ssunshine. I don't know.

However, it seems to me that the big thing was that the stronger winds aloft were finally translated down to the ground as Ike moved over Ohio. Since we didn't have any thunderstorms when Ike went through, it isn't likely that thunderstorm downdrafts were the source of the high winds. The more likely cause was mechanical mixing. It is possible that increased friction was responsible for the mixing. Alternatively, vertical wind shear may have also played a role. In either case, the stronger winds above the planetary boundary layer were mixed down to the surface and we observed sustained winds to 54 m.p.h. with gusts to 75 m.p.h. in Columbus.

[Tropopause_Fold]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011070706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

LMAO.

[Ed Lizard]

PNS

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/sept14wind.html

[OSUmetstud]

[Rainstorm]

Look at this...persistent east coast trough that has been present since May. Things are going to have change or it's going to be 2010 all over again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011070706/slp56.png

[/Rainstorm]

[Tropopause_Fold]

[Rainstorm]

Look at this...persistent east coast trough that has been present since May. Things are going to have change or it's going to be 2010 all over again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/2011070706/slp56.png

[/Rainstorm]

good call by LC again.

[OSUmetstud]

this was a classic from 2005

rainstorm, on Aug 6 2005, 10:56 PM, said:

maybe we already had the peak of the season. frankie, harv, and td9 have been hit with very hostile conditions.

[Ed Lizard]

this was a classic from 2005

rainstorm, on Aug 6 2005, 10:56 PM, said:

maybe we already had the peak of the season. frankie, harv, and td9 have been hit with very hostile conditions.

You saved that all this time?

Anyway, the votive candle post and filling gallon jugs w/ water, just reassuring my SNE Catholic peeps there can be light in the bathroom and they can flush the toilet even after a hurricane.

[HurricaneJosh]

You said infamous in your reply...I don't consider some of these infamous. 1944, 1927? and not sure which others are missing from the list.

Also omitted are the disasterous Connie and Diane in '55, both August storms and catastrophic flood producers as you know.

See above-- I catalogued it all for ya.

Connie and Diane were not 'canes in the Northeast.

[OSUmetstud]

You said infamous in your reply...I don't consider some of these infamous. 1944, 1927? and not sure which others are missing from the list.

Also omitted are the disasterous Connie and Diane in '55, both August storms and catastrophic flood producers as you know.

I was trying to compile a list of all hurricane landfalls since 1851...I missed a few. But Connie and Diane were not hurricanes when they hit SNE. It was somewhat tangential to my first reply. Clearly, September is more favorable for SNE landfalls and strong landfalls than August

[Ginx snewx]

I was trying to compile a list of all hurricane landfalls since 1851...I missed a few. But Connie and Diane were not hurricanes when they hit SNE. It was somewhat tangential to my first reply. Clearly, September is more favorable for SNE landfalls and strong landfalls than August

700 years of permanent record

http://gsabulletin.gsapubs.org/content/113/6/714.abstract

[OSUmetstud]

700 years of permanent record

http://gsabulletin.g.../6/714.abstract

thanks...so 3 out of the 5 majors struck during September.

there are more hurricanes during September and more recurvers...so that could explain at least part of it.

[Ginx snewx]

Yup.... that's another one.

The Pawcatuck River in Stonington/Westerly is extremely vulnerable. The CT side is protected by a hurricane barrier.

I used to maintain and run those hurricane pumps and barriers which really only protect a 3/4 mile section of CT. I had a very interesting conversation two weeks agao here at the Museum with Whit Davis who owns the Davis farm in lower Pawcatuck, he is 87 years old and we talked for an hour about storms. He and his family sheltered and saved many people from Napatree Point. He laughed at the so called hurricane barrier which he said really only protects the factory owners, he pointed out correctly that in a 38 situation the water was over the bridge downstream and would back feed lower Pawcatuck. I wonder if the Army Corp still maintains that barrier system?

[free_man]

See above-- I catalogued it all for ya.

Connie and Diane were not 'canes in the Northeast.

My point was that the scorecard is fairly balanced between "major" strikes and the months they occured. When we start looking into all hits including TS, September sticks out more, obviously. Connie and Diane were tropical systems that were far more impactful than some of those low end hurricane hits, so since the original intent of major storms was clouded might as well include those, too.

Aug: Carol, 1635

Sept: '38, 1815

Apparently Carol is not considered a major hurricane landfall anymore...and 1638? is included. I did not know (or forgot) about that one.

[CT Rain]

I used to maintain and run those hurricane pumps and barriers which really only protect a 3/4 mile section of CT. I had a very interesting conversation two weeks agao here at the Museum with Whit Davis who owns the Davis farm in lower Pawcatuck, he is 87 years old and we talked for an hour about storms. He and his family sheltered and saved many people from Napatree Point. He laughed at the so called hurricane barrier which he said really only protects the factory owners, he pointed out correctly that in a 38 situation the water was over the bridge downstream and would back feed lower Pawcatuck. I wonder if the Army Corp still maintains that barrier system?

Yup they maintain the Stamford and Pawcatuck hurricane barriers.

That barrier should protect most of downtown Pawcatuck from what would otherwise be devastating flooding that would destroy the whole town center.

[CT Rain]

My point was that the scorecard is fairly balanced between "major" strikes and the months they occured. When we start looking into all hits including TS, September sticks out more, obviously. Connie and Diane were tropical systems that were far more impactful than some of those low end hurricane hits, so since the original intent of major storms was clouded might as well include those, too.

Aug: Carol, 1635

Sept: '38, 1815

Apparently Carol is not considered a major hurricane landfall anymore...and 1638? is included. I did not know (or forgot) about that one.

Yes it is

[HurricaneJosh]

My point was that the scorecard is fairly balanced between "major" strikes and the months they occured. When we start looking into all hits including TS, September sticks out more, obviously. Connie and Diane were tropical systems that were far more impactful than some of those low end hurricane hits, so since the original intent of major storms was clouded might as well include those, too.

Aug: Carol, 1635

Sept: '38, 1815

Apparently Carol is not considered a major hurricane landfall anymore...and 1638? is included. I did not know (or forgot) about that one.

See my post above-- I present the most-recent research by the most qualified people Re: this topic.

[OSUmetstud]

My point was that the scorecard is fairly balanced between "major" strikes and the months they occured. When we start looking into all hits including TS, September sticks out more, obviously. Connie and Diane were tropical systems that were far more impactful than some of those low end hurricane hits, so since the original intent of major storms was clouded might as well include those, too.

Aug: Carol, 1635

Sept: '38, 1815

Apparently Carol is not considered a major hurricane landfall anymore...and 1638? is included. I did not know (or forgot) about that one.

meh...in a discussion of SNE hurricanes...I don't think hurricanes making landfall way in NC and causing major flooding in SNE is a good point...seems like something to change the goal posts. My list only included hurricanes...and with Josh's list...you can see hurricane landfalls are more favored in September than they are in August.

I think there are a few reasons for this.

More storms occur in September overall

the Bermuda high tends to weaken in September with westerlies impinging further south...allowing for more recurving storms

Generally speaking, hurricanes need to be moving very fast to make it to SNE while still strong...stronger storm motion is more favored in September than in August due to troughiness making it further south into the US.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh, and here are all of the official NY/New England landfalls for the 1851-1930 period, which have been reanalyzed and approved:

1858 Sep - NY1, CT1, RI1, MA1 - 80 kt

1869 Sep - RI3, MA3, NY1, CT1 - 100 kt

1869 Oct - ME2, MA1 - 90 kt ("Saxby's Gale")

1893 Aug - NY1, CT1 - 75 kt ("Midnight Storm")

1894 Oct - NY1, CT1, RI1

1896 Sep - RI1, MA1 - 70 kt

1924 Aug - MA1 - 65 kt

So the official list is a little different than that list, above. The list above leaves out one of the 1869 'canes and the 1894 and 1924 'canes, and incorrectly lists an impact in 1916.

Judging from climo, we should see a cane within the next 8 years.

[HoarfrostHubb]

700 years of permanent record

http://gsabulletin.g.../6/714.abstract

I love that paper 1938 had cousins...big effin cousins

[OSUmetstud]

Judging from climo, we should see a cane within the next 8 years.

seems like the return period for hurricanes is about 1 every 10 or 11 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Josh, awesome contributions...thx.

See ya in 2 weeks!

[HurricaneJosh]

Josh, awesome contributions...thx.

See ya in 2 weeks!

Hey, thanks, Ray!

Psyched to see you in BWI-- glad you're going, dude!