Mr Torchey Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 1938 please One day your wish will come true, whether its catastrophic ice storm damage, tornado or cat 3 hurricane, you beg for all three.. All of your oaks will come down, on top of your home, and you will lose everything, why that would bring you joy is beyond me, and if you are kidding then karma can truly be a b**ch sometimes, and the game is childish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here is the list of New England/NY hurricane landfalls from HRD/AOML Sep 1858 Cat 1 Sep 1869 Cat 3 Aug 1893 Cat 1 Sep 1896 Cat 1 Jul 1916 Cat 1 Sep 1938 Cat 3 Aug 1954 Cat 3 Sep 1954 Cat 3 Sep 1960 Cat 2 Jul 1972 Cat 1 Sep 1985 Cat 3 Aug 1991 Cat 2 4 of the 5 majors affected New England in September 7 of the 12 hurricanes affected New England in September Gloria is still listed as a major in this list, but as most know, it is likely that it wasn't a major when it made landfall in Long Island. I've been working with Josh on some reanalysis stuff and I'm strongly doubting that Carol and Edna hold up as Cat 3s in SNE. He knows more about it than I do, though, so I'll let him know about this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Yeah, but you could say the same thing about a lot of events with a 100 year return period. For sure. I'm not terribly concerned about loss of life/inability to evacuate... it's more the cleanup and infrastructure problems inland. More than any other 100 year return event in SNE the hurricane certainly worries me more (floods, blizzard, drought, etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I think it would require a different climate regime to get a Cat 4 in New England...I just don't think you can do it with the current configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I've been working with Josh on some reanalysis stuff and I'm strongly doubting that Carol and Edna hold up as Cat 3s in SNE. He knows more about it than I do, though, so I'll let him know about this thread. I figured...that's just the best list I have to go on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I've been working with Josh on some reanalysis stuff and I'm strongly doubting that Carol and Edna hold up as Cat 3s in SNE. He knows more about it than I do, though, so I'll let him know about this thread. Agreed about Edna... but I'm not sure about Carol. BID on the eastern eyewall had a 135 mph gust from Carol... and Warwick, RI was sustained at 90. Could have been a strong cat 2 I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 One day your wish will come true, whether its catastrophic ice storm damage, tornado or cat 3 hurricane, you beg for all three.. All of your oaks will come down, on top of your home, and you will lose everything, why that would bring you joy is beyond me, and if you are kidding then karma can truly be a b**ch sometimes, and the game is childish. moralists come out everytime there is a hurricane thread...give it a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I think it would require a different climate regime to get a Cat 4 in New England...I just don't think you can do it with the current configuration. Yeah 1635 may have been close... but I wouldn't rule anything out especially in the next 100-200 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I've been working with Josh on some reanalysis stuff and I'm strongly doubting that Carol and Edna hold up as Cat 3s in SNE. He knows more about it than I do, though, so I'll let him know about this thread. Gloria certainly won't hold up on that list as a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 One day your wish will come true, whether its catastrophic ice storm damage, tornado or cat 3 hurricane, you beg for all three.. All of your oaks will come down, on top of your home, and you will lose everything, why that would bring you joy is beyond me, and if you are kidding then karma can truly be a b**ch sometimes, and the game is childish. One hell of an ending to the best summer ever :sun: :sun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Gloria certainly won't hold up on that list as a cat 3 Well, yeah, but that's pretty common knowledge at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Well, yeah, but that's pretty common knowledge at this point I'm curious if it will go down as a 2 for Long Island or a 1? 1 for CT is a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Yeah 1635 may have been close... but I wouldn't rule anything out especially in the next 100-200 years. I think a Cat 4 would be tough over 70 degree waters...even if you have the central pressure and the flight level winds...you are going to decouple the boundary layer quickly. Heck, even Bermuda has a tough time with Cat 4s...none verified over the past 100+ years...and they had 84-86 degree waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I'm curious if it will go down as a 2 for Long Island or a 1? 1 for CT is a given. Here is the Landsea reanalysis paper from 2005. He does keep Carol and Edna at H3 in MA, while dropping Gloria to H1 in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I think a Cat 4 would be tough over 70 degree waters...even if you have the central pressure and the flight level winds...you are going to decouple the boundary layer quickly. Heck, even Bermuda has a tough time with Cat 4s...none verified over the past 100+ years...and they had 84-86 degree waters. Well the water south of Long Island and east of NJ can be 75-80F. 44025 is already 72F and it's early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here is the Landsea reanalysis paper from 2005. He does keep Carol and Edna at H3 in MA, while dropping Gloria to H1 in NY. Is that the final reanalysis for both Carol, Gloria, and Edna? When does the new hurdat come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 7, 2011 Author Share Posted July 7, 2011 I think a Cat 4 would be tough over 70 degree waters...even if you have the central pressure and the flight level winds...you are going to decouple the boundary layer quickly. Heck, even Bermuda has a tough time with Cat 4s...none verified over the past 100+ years...and they had 84-86 degree waters. Landfalling Category 4s are tough to get in the world nevermind new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Is that the final reanalysis for both Carol, Gloria, and Edna? When does the new hurdat come out? No, those are not final. They're only through the 30s right now in the reanalysis project officially, but Andy Hagen's Masters thesis should get us through 1953 once the committee approves his work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 No, those are not final. They're only through the 30s right now in the reanalysis project officially, but Andy Hagen's Masters thesis should get us through 1953 once the committee approves his work. Cool. I forgot about that Landsea paper haven't seen it in years. Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Wiki only shows us through 1930 officially in the reanalysis project, but I thought it was complete through 1939. Josh will know more than me. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_reanalysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 moralists come out everytime there is a hurricane thread...give it a break LOL you trip me out, moralist? nah, just laugh when people wish for catastrophic events to effect there home, after going through hurricane hurricane Hugo at univ of sc coastal carolina, I cant imagine anyone wishing for this. As a storm chaser its easy to go into a community WHERE YOU DONT LIVE observe the storm and its destruction and then leave. I witnessed first hand, the damage, from isle of palms, to Mount Pleasant, Awendaw, McClellanville, Santee, Georgetown, Pawleys island, Litchfield, Garden City, Surfside and to a lesser extent into Myrtle Beach proper. The destruction especially from storm surge was jaw dropping. So its not about MORALITY, I was a 19 yr old punk college student but that storm forever changed my opinion on hurricanes. Now, as a homeowner, father, I especially could not imagine anyone wanting a 90 mile wide ef3 tornado coming up into southern new england, the tree damage alone would be unbelievable and hard for many inidividuals to comprehend. By the way, have you ever been through a cat 2 3 or 4 hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 lol I thought you'd like that. Who knows what a warmer earth will mean for SNE hurricanes 50 years from now. Interesting to think about. A major hurricane is something I worry about a lot for SNE. Totally unprepared. This I actually agree with. The SNE area, especially the coast, has not seen a major hurricane in decades and the amount of development along the coast during that period has created a catastrophe waiting to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 This I actually agree with. The SNE area, especially the coast, has not seen a major hurricane in decades and the amount of development along the coast during that period has created a catastrophe waiting to happen. TBH the coast may be one of the easier places to rebuild and deal with. Emergency management and many people who live there know just how vulnerable they are. The amount of tree destruction from a cat 3 hurricane inland would just decimate the power grid and totally overwhelm towns trying to get rid of debris. You'd probably have places w/o power for months which would is something unique to a SNE hurricane as opposed to a storm to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 TBH the coast may be one of the easier places to rebuild and deal with. Emergency management and many people who live there know just how vulnerable they are. The amount of tree destruction from a cat 3 hurricane inland would just decimate the power grid and totally overwhelm towns trying to get rid of debris. You'd probably have places w/o power for months which would is something unique to a SNE hurricane as opposed to a storm to the south. Just imagine Wiz on the HAM radio during this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 lol I thought you'd like that. Who knows what a warmer earth will mean for SNE hurricanes 50 years from now. Interesting to think about. A major hurricane is something I worry about a lot for SNE. Totally unprepared. yeah entirely agree with this. would be a whole big bag of WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 LOL you trip me out, moralist? nah, just laugh when people wish for catastrophic events to effect there home, after going through hurricane hurricane Hugo at univ of sc coastal carolina, I cant imagine anyone wishing for this. As a storm chaser its easy to go into a community WHERE YOU DONT LIVE observe the storm and its destruction and then leave. I witnessed first hand, the damage, from isle of palms, to Mount Pleasant, Awendaw, McClellanville, Santee, Georgetown, Pawleys island, Litchfield, Garden City, Surfside and to a lesser extent into Myrtle Beach proper. The destruction especially from storm surge was jaw dropping. So its not about MORALITY, I was a 19 yr old punk college student but that storm forever changed my opinion on hurricanes. Now, as a homeowner, father, I especially could not imagine anyone wanting a 90 mile wide ef3 tornado coming up into southern new england, the tree damage alone would be unbelievable and hard for many inidividuals to comprehend. By the way, have you ever been through a cat 2 3 or 4 hurricane? Your opinion on the matter is perfectly fine...but why are you giving people **** for their own opinions...talking about Karma and all his trees destroying his home as if you know exactly what would happen... We all like extreme weather here...some in different forms than others...I don't like when people who like blizzards etc. com and lecture those who like tornadoes and hurricanes on death and destruction. No one here controls the weather..so who cares what someone wishes to happen? If it wants to happen it will happen if it doesn't it won't. I've experienced sustained hurricane force winds from a Cat 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Your opinion on the matter is perfectly fine...but why are you giving people **** for their own opinions...talking about Karma and all his trees destroying his home as if you know exactly what would happen... We all like extreme weather here...some in different forms than others...I don't like when people who like blizzards etc. com and lecture those who like tornadoes and hurricanes on death and destruction. No one here controls the weather..so who cares what someone wishes to happen? If it wants to happen it will happen if it doesn't it won't. I've experienced sustained hurricane force winds from a Cat 1 hurricane. You are correct, if Blizzie wants a major cane, than thats fine, I just think he is kidding since he is a proud father and homeowner, and the chance of losing things that he has worked so hard for is pretty good. In south carolina it was the storm surge, up here the devestation would be inland, tree damage, it would be unbelievable. Its a sensitive subject as I am from SC, Kevin I apologize, if thats truly what you want then I hope your dreams come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 TBH the coast may be one of the easier places to rebuild and deal with. Emergency management and many people who live there know just how vulnerable they are. The amount of tree destruction from a cat 3 hurricane inland would just decimate the power grid and totally overwhelm towns trying to get rid of debris. You'd probably have places w/o power for months which would is something unique to a SNE hurricane as opposed to a storm to the south. this.^^ SNE is so much different than it was the last time we had a "real" hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 TBH the coast may be one of the easier places to rebuild and deal with. Emergency management and many people who live there know just how vulnerable they are. The amount of tree destruction from a cat 3 hurricane inland would just decimate the power grid and totally overwhelm towns trying to get rid of debris. You'd probably have places w/o power for months which would is something unique to a SNE hurricane as opposed to a storm to the south. Agreed, but the majority of the structuaral damage would be limited to the coastal communities. One thing I am curious of, is how much more forested are we now as compared to the 1930's. I'd have to imagine given our focus on nature conservation we are far more forested now. That would most certainly present electrical grid problems as you stated on the magnitude that we haven't seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 TBH the coast may be one of the easier places to rebuild and deal with. Emergency management and many people who live there know just how vulnerable they are. The amount of tree destruction from a cat 3 hurricane inland would just decimate the power grid and totally overwhelm towns trying to get rid of debris. You'd probably have places w/o power for months which would is something unique to a SNE hurricane as opposed to a storm to the south. You're probably right. We are so heavily forested here, that it would be weeks if not months for some to get their power back, with something that intense. You hear bits and pieces now and then, of stories where almost whole mtn sides were mowed down during the '38 hurricane. The thing about "our" hurricanes is that while the 10m sustained winds might not be Cat III, you don't lose this wind velocity aloft. This momentum is continued, thanks to the northward acceleration. So what you have, is violent convective gusts that can be 30-40mph stronger than any sustained winds. That seems to be the characteristic of the storms that come into SNE and keep SNE in the warm sector. These gusts can be hard to measure, especially during outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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