SNE Hurricane Thread

[CoastalWx]

I think when the NHC warnings were issued, the center point forecast was about 95 nm from Hull. From a pure statistical perspective, there is 2/3 of a chance of being inside the cone...while there is a 1/6 of a chance of it being outside of the cone on the left side. If the NHC forecast was more perfect and showed Earl going just outside the benchmark....warnings would have been significantly more limited.

I think Ryan hit the nail on the head. While statistically the chance is high of being in the cone, that doesn't mean hurricane conditions will be felt that far north. There has to be a better way to convey the uncertainty of experiencing TS or H conditions...and I think this is even more of a problem up this way.

The problem is we, as Mets, understand the whole warning process and the FAR that can go with it, but Joe public doesn't really have a clue. It's not just Joe Public either...people that are supposed to be "trained and informed" like EM managers don't have a clue either. It's a fine line as you say, because obviously safety is a big concern, so hands our somewhat tied here. I think we in SNE understood that an accelerating and weakening storm moving northeast was not going to substantially impact much of the area north of the canal with significant impacts.

[OSUmetstud]

Well I think you first need to get rid of a cone that's based on historical performance of track errors and not forecaster confidence. Some storms should have much larger cones than others. I also think that issuing a warning or watch just because someone is in a "one size fits all" cone is sort of silly... particularly at this latitude when storms become so lop sided.

Even if you use forecaster confidence, you will still have a high FAR for hurricane warnings. It's inevitable. Also, I think the hurricane warnings for the Cape/Island were justified even in a forecast confidence paradigm.

[CoastalWx]

Even if you use forecaster confidence, you will still have a high FAR for hurricane warnings. It's inevitable. Also, I think the hurricane warnings for the Cape/Island were justified even in a forecast confidence paradigm.

I agree as well.

[CT Rain]

Even if you use forecaster confidence, you will still have a high FAR for hurricane warnings. It's inevitable. Also, I think the hurricane warnings for the Cape/Island were justified even in a forecast confidence paradigm.

Agreed though I probably would have canceled them by 5pm that night

[OSUmetstud]

I think Ryan hit the nail on the head. While statistically the chance is high of being in the cone, that doesn't mean hurricane conditions will be felt that far north. There has to be a better way to convey the uncertainty of experiencing TS or H conditions...and I think this is even more of a problem up this way.

The problem is we, as Mets, understand the whole warning process and the FAR that can go with it, but Joe public doesn't really have a clue. It's not just Joe Public either...people that are supposed to be "trained and informed" like EM managers don't have a clue either. It's a fine line as you say, because obviously safety is a big concern, so hands our somewhat tied here. I think we in SNE understood that an accelerating and weakening storm moving northeast was not going to substantially impact much of the area north of the canal with significant impacts.

The issue is also is that the NHC still had hurricane force winds out 50nm NW of the hurricane in their forecast point for CPA when they issued the hurricane warning. If you got your slight deviation left of the track, SE Mass is within the hurricane force radii.

[CT Rain]

The issue is also is that the NHC still had hurricane force winds out 50nm NW of the hurricane in their forecast point for CPA when they issued the hurricane warning. If you got your slight deviation left of the track, SE Mass is within the hurricane force radii.

I think you're taking things too literally based on those products. I don't think any met really expected sustained hurricane force winds over the Cape by afternoon on Friday.

[OSUmetstud]

I think you're taking things too literally based on those products. I don't think any met really expected sustained hurricane force winds over the Cape by afternoon on Friday.

probably not...but if you are going to remain consistent in that approach...I think you issue the hurricane warnings. The radii are obviously conservative because the chances that a hurricane at SNE's latitude is going to have hurricane force winds that far NW of track is quite small.

On another not, I think there really needs to be a lot more work done with the social science aspect of forecasts and warnings. the science is pretty good for the most part, but getting people to prepare and understand these products is a whole other animal.

[OSUmetstud]

I think you're taking things too literally based on those products. I don't think any met really expected sustained hurricane force winds over the Cape by afternoon on Friday.

is it about expecting, though?

When the NHC issues warnings that cover a couple hundred miles of the Gulf Coast do you think they expect hurricane force winds in most places, especially on the edges of the warnings?

[Ginx snewx]

what exactly are you trying to add here?

Nick, read back, adding nothing, trolled by Ryan just responding in kind. are you a mod?

[OSUmetstud]

Nick, read back, adding nothing, trolled by Ryan just responding in kind. are you a mod?

just a question, dude

[CT Rain]

Nick, read back, adding nothing, trolled by Ryan just responding in kind. are you a mod?

I'm sending sandbags down to Westerly

[Ginx snewx]

I'm sending sandbags down to Westerly

54 Reduex?

[Ginx snewx]

Ryan, just to remind you. From eastern

40/70 Benchmark, on 02 September 2010 - 04:28 PM, said:

Well, it's an easy call for CT, at this juncture.

Debbie Downer:

Well everyone at 5pm in the media said TS conditions 50+ gusts.

rfhpsu, on 02 September 2010 - 04:27 PM, said:

To be honest I'd say the same thing on-air. I'd probably say the storm doesn't look bad, minimal flood threat from offshore winds, 1-2" of rain in eastern CT won't flood anything, and winds are unlikely to gust higher than 45mph even in SE CT. I'd say the TS warning is because the NHC is overly cautious and that we shouldn't expect any worse impacts than a thunderstorm outbreak or a mild nor'easter.

Ginx said;

Ryan you are very true, your on airs are very similar to your posts here. It is OVAH

The best part of Earl was this surf at Elbow Ledge off of Newport Sakonnet area.

[CT Rain]

My "I'd say the same thing on-air" meant that I'd say the same thing on-air that I was posting about.

So just to make that context clear I did not mean that I would have said the 50+ gusts.

[CT Rain]

Props to you for trying to take something out of context lol

[Ginx snewx]

My "I'd say the same thing on-air" meant that I'd say the same thing on-air that I was posting about.

So just to make that context clear I did not mean that I would have said the 50+ gusts.

Props to you for trying to take something out of context lol

Oh I was defending you , silly boy, but was pointing out that indeed all the media, besides you did say 50 mph gusts with TS conditions during hype period.

[CT Rain]

Oh I was defending you , silly boy, but was pointing out that indeed all the media, besides you did say 50 mph gusts with TS conditions during hype period.

Yeah which is what the NHC/NWS had.

But yeah I wouldn't have said that.... I would have gone with what I was posting online. Basically NBD.

[Chrisrotary12]

0Z GFS had something interesting last night. I think we should all be talking about that potential monster off of the Cape two weeks from now. lol Bring the weenies.

[free_man]

0Z GFS had something interesting last night. I think we should all be talking about that potential monster off of the Cape two weeks from now. lol Bring the weenies.

Hope it hits way farther west, like NYC and we get E semicircled here....no thx to 15" of rain with light breezes.

[free_man]

3 days prior

5 day prior

Is this an interesting pattern?

[Tropopause_Fold]

probably not...but if you are going to remain consistent in that approach...I think you issue the hurricane warnings. The radii are obviously conservative because the chances that a hurricane at SNE's latitude is going to have hurricane force winds that far NW of track is quite small.

On another not, I think there really needs to be a lot more work done with the social science aspect of forecasts and warnings. the science is pretty good for the most part, but getting people to prepare and understand these products is a whole other animal.

yeah I think this is the key point here. And it applies to many aspects of meteorology. There's a huge disconnect. Sometimes even something as simple as the winter storm warning I think is too cumbersome a product for the general public. Not sure there's an answer though. Someone should let google or apple take a whack at it - they do a nice job of making things simple.

[weatherMA]

Dang, I didn't plan my vacation around hurricane season. Maybe there will be one on August 27th and I won't be able to get back home.

[BrianLaverty]

I was in St. Lucia last year for the Hurricane Earl mess. Was sooo disappointed that I was going to miss it.... turned out I didn't miss anything. Told my girlfriend that there will be no travelling between August and October this year.

[OSUmetstud]

I was in St. Lucia last year for the Hurricane Earl mess. Was sooo disappointed that I was going to miss it.... turned out I didn't miss anything. Told my girlfriend that there will be no travelling between August and October this year.

so you'd rather be in SNE in August through October than the Caribbean?

[snowNH]

Anybody see the 18z NAM? Could be an interesting setup at 84 hours. Has a 'cane in the SE area with a pretty big trough working through after our little noreaster.

Thoughts?

[OSUmetstud]

Anybody see the 18z NAM? Could be an interesting setup at 84 hours. Has a 'cane in the SE area with a pretty big trough working through after our little noreaster.

Thoughts?

no dice.

First of all, don't look at the NAM for tropical stuff. Second of all, that is 92L...which is generally forecasted to remain relatively weak and recurve well east of the US East Coast. The very trough you're speaking of should push it out to sea. The biggest "threat" looks like Bermuda at this point.

[HoarfrostHubb]

no dice.

First of all, don't look at the NAM for tropical stuff. Second of all, that is 92L...which is generally forecasted to remain relatively weak and recurve well east of the US East Coast. The very trough you're speaking of should push it out to sea. The biggest "threat" looks like Bermuda at this point.

Have you been back to Bermuda since you moved?

[OSUmetstud]

Have you been back to Bermuda since you moved?

nah...we're hoping to take a trip there next year.

[OSUmetstud]

Op Euro might hit be close to hitting SNE after 240 hours lol. Weird solution...landfall in Florida...back over the water and then moving up the coast with positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic and a pretty decent midwest trough.

[HoarfrostHubb]

La la la lock it in