snowNH Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Judging by this morning.. tomorrow and Friday are gonna be awesome.. I love low dews! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 Interesting dilemma this morning... The teleconnectors are by and large useless at the moment; not only have there been several nights skipped at both agencies, leaving formiddable gaps in any trend analysis, the static state of the NAO has almost N/S (No Skill, meaning not correlatable) on the pattern. Moreover, the NAO is perhaps vaguely negative, but that doesn't even emerge for another 7 to 10 days, in which time it is somewhat positive for at least a 3-5 day period. In other words, not much help there... But, we can perhaps rely on the obvious trends of the operational runs and their respective ensemble means alone, particularly considering that even in the case of the NAO if the signal is not substantive at this time of year the teleconnector is less useful to begin with. That said, those signal heat as the theme in general. The extended ECM operational went historic for at least 1 day in a 3 to 4 day stretch of misery. The average of the last 4 cycles of the run has been to maintain an insidiously intense heat dome in the nation's heartland, while just about every other run segments plumes and successfully traverses them through the NE. Last night's 00z run was the most prodigious yet; it is also the 3rd run in the last 6 cycles that I have seen the ECM attempt to bodily reposition the core of the thermal anomaly over the eastern cordillera as opposed to the MV. I think it is safe to say that there is at least background physics in play to do so, where perhaps primary influencers in the system have been periodically preventing (are "delaying" if you want to call it that) - my belief is that those are associated with the NAO, and without it, this would have been an exceptionally hot summer up this way so far. NAO has protected us at great convenience to Will's desire to unrelentingly torment Kevin with daily dosages of in-your-face-isms regarding the truth about the departures to date thus far, using carefully targeted laser-guided sarcastic heat seeking missile strikes. The momentum in that war may be about to change though. I don't admittedly have a tremendous amount of confidence as my own reliance on the modes and modalities off the panoply of teleconnectors are not exactly serving the cause (seasonally). The PNA is seasonally relegated to having limited correlation on the flow; the NAO does, but again, the signal is vague right now. That said, it struck me that the UKMET, with it supposed lofty 500mb geopotential scores, had shown for 3 consecutive runs just about exactly what the the ECM and GFS went ahead and jumped on for the D3.5 - 6 range, and that is a substantial relaxation in the nagging trough, a lifting out of the westerlies, and the 588dm contour soaring to perhaps as high as CON in latitude. It appears that we have 2 potential warm departures. One during said interval, late Saturday through early Tuesday perhaps ... then a relaxation back to norms again (similar to Th/Fr this week), followed less confidently by a more substantial, perhaps apex heat event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 . NAO has protected us at great convenience to Will's desire to unrelentingly torment Kevin with daily dosages of in-your-face-isms regarding the truth about the departures to date thus far, using carefully targeted laser-guided sarcastic heat seeking missile strikes. The momentum in that war may be about to change though. It appears that we have 2 potential warm departures. One during said interval, late Saturday through early Tuesday perhaps ... then a relaxation back to norms again (similar to Th/Fr this week), followed less confidently by a more substantial, perhaps apex heat event. :thumbsup: As long as Kev makes over the top predictions, Will-o-Tron will pummel him with data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 :thumbsup: As long as Kev makes over the top predictions, Will-o-Tron will pummel him with data My time has almost arrived. Scud missles are getting prepared as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 My time has almost arrived. Scud missles are getting prepared as we speak I am fully prepared for monster heat to arrive. Timing is perfect...Actually, send more Aug 1-10, so I won't feel as bad in Orlando Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Interesting dilemma this morning... The teleconnectors are by and large useless at the moment; not only have there been several nights skipped at both agencies, leaving formiddable gaps in any trend analysis, the static state of the NAO has almost N/S (No Skill, meaning not correlatable) on the pattern. Moreover, the NAO is perhaps vaguely negative, but that doesn't even emerge for another 7 to 10 days, in which time it is somewhat positive for at least a 3-5 day period. In other words, not much help there... But, we can perhaps rely on the obvious trends of the operational runs and their respective ensemble means alone, particularly considering that even in the case of the NAO if the signal is not substantive at this time of year the teleconnector is less useful to begin with. That said, those signal heat as the theme in general. The extended ECM operational went historic for at least 1 day in a 3 to 4 day stretch of misery. The average of the last 4 cycles of the run has been to maintain an insidiously intense heat dome in the nation's heartland, while just about every other run segments plumes and successfully traverses them through the NE. Last night's 00z run was the most prodigious yet; it is also the 3rd run in the last 6 cycles that I have seen the ECM attempt to bodily reposition the core of the thermal anomaly over the eastern cordillera as opposed to the MV. I think it is safe to say that there is at least background physics in play to do so, where perhaps primary influencers in the system have been periodically preventing (are "delaying" if you want to call it that) - my belief is that those are associated with the NAO, and without it, this would have been an exceptionally hot summer up this way so far. NAO has protected us at great convenience to Will's desire to unrelentingly torment Kevin with daily dosages of in-your-face-isms regarding the truth about the departures to date thus far, using carefully targeted laser-guided sarcastic heat seeking missile strikes. The momentum in that war may be about to change though. I don't admittedly have a tremendous amount of confidence as my own reliance on the modes and modalities off the panoply of teleconnectors are not exactly serving the cause (seasonally). The PNA is seasonally relegated to having limited correlation on the flow; the NAO does, but again, the signal is vague right now. That said, it struck me that the UKMET, with it supposed lofty 500mb geopotential scores, had shown for 3 consecutive runs just about exactly what the the ECM and GFS went ahead and jumped on for the D3.5 - 6 range, and that is a substantial relaxation in the nagging trough, a lifting out of the westerlies, and the 588dm contour soaring to perhaps as high as CON in latitude. It appears that we have 2 potential warm departures. One during said interval, late Saturday through early Tuesday perhaps ... then a relaxation back to norms again (similar to Th/Fr this week), followed less confidently by a more substantial, perhaps apex heat event. The euro ensembles roast the East Coast, especially from Philly on south, by the 22rd or so....give or take a day. With that trough in the west, it appears a piece of that heat dome will move east. How far north into New England or how long remains uncertain, but the Plains and the Midwest are gonna roast and perhaps make the headlines in the nightly news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The euro ensembles roast the East Coast, especially from Philly on south, by the 22rd or so....give or take a day. With that trough in the west, it appears a piece of that heat dome will move east. How far north into New England or how long remains uncertain, but the Plains and the Midwest are gonna roast and perhaps make the headlines in the nightly news. How many do you think will perish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow, its summer, its megahot in the heartland, who would thunk it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 How many do you think will perish? Well I'm not suggesting that, but just saying it will be hot. Don't forget they have been baking and will continue to bake. They're normally hot to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 Wow, its summer, its megahot in the heartland, who would thunk it. Eh, you're a little lacking here - that last wax of heat +5 SD heat even for them. It's in wane, but will wax in about 2-3 day periodicity. The question is, should that come east what would it mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yeah-last night was still a torch. Got down to only 68 last night. It's amazing how nice a dp around 60 feels right now. 81/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Eh, you're a little lacking here - that last wax of heat +5 SD heat even for them. It's in wane, but will wax in about 2-3 day periodicity. The question is, should that come east what would it mean. wow - did you calculate that on your own or read that in an AFD / HPC disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 Well I'm not suggesting that, but just saying it will be hot. Don't forget they have been baking and will continue to bake. They're normally hot to begin with. "Perish" may be a bit strong - but , it's a valid question in my mind. In 1995, a torridity struck the midwest from the southern Lakes to IA, with 105/80 routine for a week or more. 1500 people were considered direct casualties of the heat. Whether they "perished" or not, I don't know, but it was certainly an event that rivals any natural disaster in U.S. history - though for some reason it is not recognized that way. That's been a contention of mine for quite a while now, that Heat Wave phenomenon is not recognised as one of the bigs: Snow, tornadoes, floods, lightning, ?heat waves? Not sure why not. I know we have had this conversation in the past but nothing's changed in my mind. Heat Waves still have a trackable synoptic uniqueness, and consequence to civility. That fact that 1995 is not considered a great natural disaster in U.S.'s history is flawed logic and a great disservice to those that went through that. Also, many many head of cattle were lost in that event. It is uncertain so far what those 110 values impacted ... DPs were not as high as the 1995 event, as well, the 1995 event was a bit higher in latitude. The fear here is that yet again something of such historical note could penetrate higher latitudes where population et al are a little less use to it. We were 91/70 the other day and bitching and complaining. That was a mere 16.5C at 850 guys.... Imagine if that 00z ECM run from 2 nights ago verified with that 23 and 24C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 "Perish" may be a bit strong - but , it's a valid question in my mind. In 1995, a torridity struck the midwest from the southern Lakes to IA, with 105/80 routine for a week or more. 1500 people were considered direct casualties of the heat. Whether they "perished" or not, I don't know, but it was certainly an event that rivals any natural disaster in U.S. history - though for some reason it is not recognized that way. That's been a contention of mine for quite a while now, that Heat Wave phenomenon is not recognised as one of the bigs: Snow, tornadoes, floods, lightning, ?heat waves? Not sure why not. I know we have had this conversation in the past but nothing's changed in my mind. Heat Waves still have a trackable synoptic uniqueness, and consequence to civility. That fact that 1995 is not considered a great natural disaster in U.S.'s history is flawed logic and a great disservice to those that went through that. Also, many many head of cattle were lost in that event. It is uncertain so far what those 110 values impacted ... DPs were not as high as the 1995 event, as well, the 1995 event was a bit higher in latitude. The fear here is that yet again something of such historical note could penetrate higher latitudes where population et al are a little less use to it. We were 91/70 the other day and bitching and complaining. That was a mere 16.5C at 850 guys.... Imagine if that 00z ECM run from 2 nights ago verified with that 23 and 24C? i don't know - i think heat gets a lot of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 wow - did you calculate that on your own or read that in an AFD / HPC disco? yeah I was being expressive ... I should have made that obvious by saying, "...That's +a billion SD heat..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah I was being expressive ... I should have made that obvious by saying, "...That's +a billion SD heat..." oh ok. i thought you saw that somewhere. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 i don't know - i think heat gets a lot of attention. Things may be changing but the last I knew NCDC and the like didn't cover them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Things may be changing but the last I knew NCDC and the like didn't cover them. well i guess it depends on what type of medium/source/media etc you are thinking about. I know that NWS keeps pretty good yearly stats on them. i understand your point - you are definitely right about the magnitude/danger of heat waves - i think NWS lists heat as the #1 killer in the u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Still warmer than I would like.....but I'll be saying that until the cows come home. 77.4/63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 "Perish" may be a bit strong - but , it's a valid question in my mind. In 1995, a torridity struck the midwest from the southern Lakes to IA, with 105/80 routine for a week or more. 1500 people were considered direct casualties of the heat. Whether they "perished" or not, I don't know, but it was certainly an event that rivals any natural disaster in U.S. history - though for some reason it is not recognized that way. That's been a contention of mine for quite a while now, that Heat Wave phenomenon is not recognised as one of the bigs: Snow, tornadoes, floods, lightning, ?heat waves? Not sure why not. I know we have had this conversation in the past but nothing's changed in my mind. Heat Waves still have a trackable synoptic uniqueness, and consequence to civility. That fact that 1995 is not considered a great natural disaster in U.S.'s history is flawed logic and a great disservice to those that went through that. Also, many many head of cattle were lost in that event. It is uncertain so far what those 110 values impacted ... DPs were not as high as the 1995 event, as well, the 1995 event was a bit higher in latitude. The fear here is that yet again something of such historical note could penetrate higher latitudes where population et al are a little less use to it. We were 91/70 the other day and bitching and complaining. That was a mere 16.5C at 850 guys.... Imagine if that 00z ECM run from 2 nights ago verified with that 23 and 24C? I do remember that heat wave dominating much of the national headlines at the time... Many sick and elderly died due to not having the sense (ie did not realize it was so hot) to get to a cooling shelter... As people get very old, they cannot detect the increase in heat/cold as well. Maybe this is why Pete is always saying it is cool at his house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I do remember that heat wave dominating much of the national headlines at the time... Many sick and elderly died due to not having the sense (ie did not realize it was so hot) to get to a cooling shelter... As people get very old, they cannot detect the increase in heat/cold as well. Maybe this is why Pete is always saying it is cool at his house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Maybe this is why Pete is always saying it is cool at his house Speaking of higher els, I found this property last week. Wife actually wants to look at it. lol 1400'+ http://www.beangroup.com/real_estate/listings/Homes/NH/New_Ipswich/1211846 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Speaking of higher els, I found this property last week. Wife actually wants to look at it. lol 1400'+ http://www.beangroup...Ipswich/1211846 Well, it is pretty small... but it abutts Windblow XC ski area which is an awesome place... 10 acres, too and a sugar shack!!! I wonder if Windblown is still for sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Speaking of higher els, I found this property last week. Wife actually wants to look at it. lol 1400'+ http://www.beangroup...Ipswich/1211846 Windblown is a great xc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 GFS has a brutal stretch later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 GFS has a brutal stretch later next week. Yup..Wait till you see the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Yup..Wait till you see the Euro Everybody sleeping on park benches in Dorchester to escape their tenemant buildings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Everybody sleeping on park benches in Dorchester to escape their tenemant buildings? It may match last summers brutal stretch where we had 90 to near 100/75 The conf this year is going to be brutal with the heat. Ray is going to try and get out of Will's car and the seat is going to rip out of the car as it will be attached to his legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I'll really enjoy tmw and Fri....then looks like summer gives us it's best shot before slowly waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It may match last summers brutal stretch where we had 90 to near 100/75 The conf this year is going to be brutal with the heat. Ray is going to try and get out of Will's car and the seat is going to rip out of the car as it will be attached to his legs AC in the car and the hotel...all I care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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