weatherMA Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 83/71, low of 75. Don't want to leave my air conditioned room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Dew of 72. Swampazzz no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 ...again??? d10 is always pornish Seems thatta way, doesn't it - There are no muting devices in the numerical models. Unlike MOS products, which contain "climo fixes" that smooth out anomalies out in time, the numerical models will from time to time spin up scenarios out of limited provocation. One can usually do well enough to correct for them using the teleconnectors and so forth, if not common sense and/or trend analysis, much of the time. Here ... heat is not a ridiculous notion. For one, it's summer... The other is that the NAO (finally updated at CDC) is positive and forecast to stay that way for at least 10 days before perhaps slipping -.25SD negative. It is not horrible positive by any stretch, but residing in that realm for an extended length of time would integrate some inluence at our latitude eventually. Frankly, I think the pattern has been taking liberty of sort, as this stretching L/W bs solely to make the ECMWF's odd looking trough incursion verify is an anomaly relative to a weakly positive NAO domain in the ides of summer. I can see that in January but at this time of year that's not going to happen the majority of the time. Anyway, PNA on the other hand ... the teleconnector's correlation is very vague in the summer - in fact, I don't think CDC even computes the correlation coefficient for JJA because of that. However, it is highly negative and forecast to fall further to -2SD. I am just wondering if such a strong signal might eventually exert on the flow over N/A. Even without it there is room here for heat, so any such model solution shouldn't be ignored. What you can't do is hang up on details at these time ranges. If you believe the 00z UKMET, we inferno by D6 ...probably before another brief cool-down, then the Euro heat...rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Still think tomorrow might be something to watch from say AFN-IJD-PVD on east. Instability picks up after 18z as the s/w approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Still think tomorrow might be something to watch from say AFN-IJD-PVD on east. Instability picks up after 18z as the s/w approaches. Maybe we'll get a lucky and the front will slow down a bit.. it will be interesting to watch the radar develop tomorrow in VT and NY.. one trend this year is that VT gets hammered in almost any setup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 BOS never got below 77 last night. The problem is they will probably get way below that by 5z tonight (1am) when the official day ends..so the low will be recorded as much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Man the rest of this week looks classically perfect temp and humidity wise, turn off the ACs open the windows enjoy the air, weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Had an overnight low of 73 here in Lenox, which is unusual for us. Berks rarely stay above 70 degrees at night, even during the midst of summer. A busy W to SW wind kept the warm atmosphere well mixed in the valley, preventing any inversion from forming. Typically our lows are in the upper 50s to low 60s at this time of year. Winds now out of the NW as the cold front approaches and 81/66. Relief will be slow however. Now a refreshing reminder of what happened 6 months ago to do the day (taken 1/12/11 during the height of a 3-4" per hour meso snow band): Hopefully we'll get many more this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 207 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011 VALID 12Z FRI JUL 15 2011 - 12Z TUE JUL 19 2011 ...HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD FROM TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT AND RECENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A WEST COAST TROUGH...AN EXPANDING WARM CORE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN CANADA MEAN TROUGH DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH (595 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS AT THE CORE) COMBINED WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROVIDE A SMALL ARRAY OF ACCEPTABLE AND NEARLY EQUAL MODEL BLENDS TO SMOOTH SMALL-SCALE OR DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...USED A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE FOR THE PRESSURES/FRONTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING WARM CORE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES NEAR ITS CORE MIGRATING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE. ANY RECORD HIGHS SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1980 SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THREATENED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY...DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE BASE OF THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA/SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MSLP VALUES...ITS SLOW MOVEMENT WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY... ALBEIT WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY...OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER MODEL CONTINUITY AND/OR POTENTIALLY STRONGER SCENARIOS FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL DEPICT A WEAK LOW NEAR THE GA/SC COAST PER COORDINATION WITH THE NHC AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE DAY 4/5 QPF TOTALS. OTHERWISE... AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONSOON-RELATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEST OF THE RIDGE...WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...SKIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHERE NO HEAT OR STORMS OR FUN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KEVIN. ROTH/JAMES $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 207 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011 VALID 12Z FRI JUL 15 2011 - 12Z TUE JUL 19 2011 ...HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD FROM TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT AND RECENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A WEST COAST TROUGH...AN EXPANDING WARM CORE RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND A WESTERN ATLANTIC/EASTERN CANADA MEAN TROUGH DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE HIGH (595 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS AT THE CORE) COMBINED WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT PROVIDE A SMALL ARRAY OF ACCEPTABLE AND NEARLY EQUAL MODEL BLENDS TO SMOOTH SMALL-SCALE OR DETAIL DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...USED A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET COMPROMISE FOR THE PRESSURES/FRONTS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRENGTHENING WARM CORE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100 AND 110 DEGREES NEAR ITS CORE MIGRATING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE. ANY RECORD HIGHS SET DURING THE SUMMER OF 1980 SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THREATENED DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/KANSAS SHOULD BE HARD TO COME BY...DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASINGLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW UNDER THE BASE OF THE RIDGE COULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/FLORIDA/SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS A SMALL BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MSLP VALUES...ITS SLOW MOVEMENT WITHIN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY... ALBEIT WITH LIMITED PREDICTABILITY...OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER MODEL CONTINUITY AND/OR POTENTIALLY STRONGER SCENARIOS FOR INCREASING CONFIDENCE. FOR NOW WILL DEPICT A WEAK LOW NEAR THE GA/SC COAST PER COORDINATION WITH THE NHC AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE THE DAY 4/5 QPF TOTALS. OTHERWISE... AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONSOON-RELATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEST OF THE RIDGE...WHILE ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES...BEFORE POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...SKIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WHERE NO HEAT OR STORMS OR FUN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KEVIN. ROTH/JAMES $$ y'all need a pair of matching handbaskets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 12z euro is doing today exactly what it has been doing for days / weeks now - that is, showing several runs in a row with big heat ejecting from the plains and moving toward us, only to follow it up with a run that keeps persistent troughing north of New England and essentially blocking any real true mega-warmth from running into the region. just gets shunted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 Nice line of storms in N NYS now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Nice line of storms in N NYS now... And in N ME.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 And in N ME.. Looks like a cell in the Lakes region of NH, too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Looks like a cell in the Lakes region of NH, too - Looks like a heavy downpour that will ruin my golf game today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 That's gross. AC is required with those temps. A/C makes you weak. Had an overnight low of 73 here in Lenox, which is unusual for us. Berks rarely stay above 70 degrees at night, even during the midst of summer. A busy W to SW wind kept the warm atmosphere well mixed in the valley, preventing any inversion from forming. Typically our lows are in the upper 50s to low 60s at this time of year. Winds now out of the NW as the cold front approaches and 81/66. Relief will be slow however. Now a refreshing reminder of what happened 6 months ago to do the day (taken 1/12/11 during the height of a 3-4" per hour meso snow band): Hopefully we'll get many more this winter. Nice Mitch, I remember that well. Can't wait for more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 78/67, a high of 83, 78 @ 2k, a warm day but toothless as a torch. The best thing about the day has been the persistent and at times strong wind. Looking forward to the lower DP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 78/67, a high of 83, 78 @ 2k, a warm day but toothless as a torch. The best thing about the day has been the persistent and at times strong wind. Looking forward to the lower DP's. As far as July days go, they don't get a whole lot better than today. I topped out at 81.8 but the strong breeze and sitting on the shaded deck felt just awesome. Looking forward to some better sleeping weather tonight. Awful one last night, only dropped to 69.0. 81.0/68 Edit: winds have shifted from the WNW to the NW==looking forward to the approaching dp's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 BOS never got below 77 last night. The problem is they will probably get way below that by 5z tonight (1am) when the official day ends..so the low will be recorded as much lower. BOS will be quite warm tonight. w-nw winds are a furnace for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 A/C makes you weak. Nice Mitch, I remember that well. Can't wait for more fun. Wrong....A/C prevents your house from smelling like a toilet and having black flies take chunks of your arm off. No thanks. My A/C has been set to North Pole since Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 BOS will be quite warm tonight. w-nw winds are a furnace for the city. Why would the day end at 1;00? Is that a DST correction? Didn't realize that was done. 80.9/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Why would the day end at 1;00? Is that a DST correction? Didn't realize that was done. 80.9/68 Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Wrong....A/C prevents your house from smelling like a toilet and having black flies take chunks of your arm off. No thanks. My A/C has been set to North Pole since Sunday. Awful. My highs were 78.3 on Sunday, 84.3 yesterday (ugh), and 81.8 today. No AC, though last night did suck with the low of 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Awful. My highs were 78.3 on Sunday, 84.3 yesterday (ugh), and 81.8 today. No AC, though last night did suck with the low of 69. You think that's bad? I had a low of 78.2F last night. Heavy heavy AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Awful. My highs were 78.3 on Sunday, 84.3 yesterday (ugh), and 81.8 today. No AC, though last night did suck with the low of 69. I'll still have A/C with a low of 69. I'm always someone who feels warm. It's like I have some sort of nuclear fission going on inside me. Even in winter, I'll be the guy with no coat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I'll still have A/C with a low of 69. I'm always someone who feels warm. It's like I have some sort of nuclear fission going on inside me. Even in winter, I'll be the guy with no coat. Alas, we don't have an AC at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Alas, we don't have an AC at the Pit. My wife would love you. She's always cold. I've always been that way....probably why I like winter...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Wrong....A/C prevents your house from smelling like a toilet and having black flies take chunks of your arm off. No thanks. My A/C has been set to North Pole since Sunday. WTF? Yet, by some miracle, MPM and I will survive the whole summer without a/c.lol Our house smells like flowers as the nice breeze wafts the fragrance of summer through the house. Something you don't get when the house is under a/c lock down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 As far as July days go, they don't get a whole lot better than today. I topped out at 81.8 but the strong breeze and sitting on the shaded deck felt just awesome. Looking forward to some better sleeping weather tonight. Awful one last night, only dropped to 69.0. 81.0/68 Edit: winds have shifted from the WNW to the NW==looking forward to the approaching dp's. The wind has taken any bite out of the warm temps and high DP's. I'm truly looking forward to the first autumn air mass which is now likely only 60 days or less away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 WTF? Yet, by some miracle, MPM and I will survive the whole summer without a/c.lol Our house smells like flowers as the nice breeze wafts the fragrance of summer through the house. Something you don't get when the house is under a/c lock down. Sounds like you use a lot of Glade to cover up the B/O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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