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Post 4th of July thoughts


Typhoon Tip

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It's probably nit-picking but I still think that trough mid week is over-done in its mighty incursion through local heights, while not having any real impetus for doing so... The upstream ridging isn't even associated with the same band of westerlies this trough is embedded. Yet it jumps latitude and smashes into the season 582dm wall. Seems the models, particularly the ECM, is ...pardon the anthropomorphism, willfully achieving that, and as a consequence probably over-doing the cooling in the backside.

I've maintained from the beginning that appeared overdone, and while I do like the idea of a frontal passage it wouldn't shock me if what results is more of a GFS MOS like low 80s, then rebounding. I also like the UKMET's signal of burgeoning MW ridge/heat dome extrapolating into a crest near Lake Superior/western Ontario before collapsing ESE - perhaps bringing a better realization of heat across next weekend.

Also, am not seeing where you guys are getting NAO blocks from. The last measure on the 8th had a the NAO being positive, and looking that the D8/10 means and other products at PSU EW clearly shows a +NAO by D7+ ... This is also climo preferred to some degree as this pattern we are in has had a residence now nearing 60 days, which is anomalously long as it is. If it wants to reset for whatever background motivators in the system enforce, there should be a 10 to 2 week window for change.

Perhaps you are just inventing that to get under Kevin's skin?? If that is the case than I'm inclined to agree -

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It's probably nit-picking but I still think that trough mid week is over-done in its mighty incursion through local heights, while not having any real impetus for doing so... The upstream ridging isn't even associated with the same band of westerlies this trough is embedded. Yet it jumps latitude and smashes into the season 582dm wall. Seems the models, particularly the ECM, is ...pardon the anthropomorphism, willfully achieving that, and as a consequence probably over-doing the cooling in the backside.

I've maintained from the beginning that appeared overdone, and while I do like the idea of a frontal passage it wouldn't shock me if what results is more of a GFS MOS like low 80s, then rebounding. I also like the UKMET's signal of burgeoning MW ridge/heat dome extrapolating into a crest near Lake Superior/western Ontario before collapsing ESE - perhaps bringing a better realization of heat across next weekend.

Also, am not seeing where you guys are getting NAO blocks from. The last measure on the 8th had a the NAO being positive, and looking that the D8/10 means and other products at PSU EW clearly shows a +NAO by D7+ ... This is also climo preferred to some degree as this pattern we are in has had a residence now nearing 60 days, which is anomalously long as it is. If it wants to reset for whatever background motivators in the system enforce, there should be a 10 to 2 week window for change.

Perhaps you are just inventing that to get under Kevin's skin?? If that is the case than I'm inclined to agree -

Well the NAO does go + for sure, but I'm talking post day 10 with a building ridge near Greenland and especially just to the east. In any case, it's more that we have overall higher heights over the arctic, but the NAO domain does go positive with a nice long wave trough extending into New England. Maybe it just means more continued summer like weather with alternating warm and cool shots. Sort of the continuation of this current pattern.

I could see low 80s for someone Thursday like BD, but it seems like a nice delivery of cool air via nrly flow and nice timing of coolest 850 temps. Probably one of those days with brisk nrly flow and low dews makes it almost chilly on the Cape. Maybe 79-80 for BED? Just saying it looks like a nice cool shot with good cool delivery via nrly flow.

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Amazing... It is 110F (43C) at Wichita Kansas!

Here are some others in that region where they are encountering a memorable if not historic heat wave:

Kansas:

Wichita AWIPS Roundup

National Weather Service Wichita KS

400 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

....Central Kansas....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

RUSSELL CLOUDY 93 69 45 S7 29.82S HX 98

SALINA PTSUNNY 100 66 32 NE5 29.81S HX 104

GREAT BEND PTSUNNY 108 57 19 S14G21 29.84F HX 107

ELLSWORTH SUNNY 97 66 36 N5 29.81F HX 100

MCPHERSON SUNNY 109 50 14 S14G21 29.80S HX 106

HAYS PTSUNNY 100 64 30 S8 29.84F HX 103

....South Central Kansas....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

HUTCHINSON MOSUNNY 111 55 16 S20G26 29.81F HX 110

NEWTON SUNNY 109 57 18 S14G25 29.83S HX 109

KINGMAN SUNNY 109 59 19 S16G22 29.82S HX 110

WICHITA (ICT) MOSUNNY 110 56 17 S15G26 29.82S HX 109

JABARA ARPT SUNNY 109 58 18 S16 29.82S HX 109

MCCONNELL AFB SUNNY 109 55 16 S13G21 29.83S HX 108

WELLINGTON SUNNY 109 61 20 S12G25 29.83S HX 111

WINFIELD N/A 109 56 17 S17G29 29.83S HX 108

....Southeast Kansas....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

EUREKA SUNNY 106 66 27 S15G23 29.82S HX 111

CHANUTE SUNNY 104 65 28 S15G22 29.84F HX 108

PARSONS SUNNY 106 63 24 SW12 29.85F HX 109

COFFEYVILLE SUNNY 108 62 22 S15G23 29.83F HX 110

INDEPENDENCE SUNNY 106 59 21 S12G21 29.83F HX 106

FORT SCOTT SUNNY 104 61 24 S12G17 29.82F HX 105

PITTSBURG SUNNY 101 62 27 SW12G21 29.85F HX 102

....Western Kansas....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

GOODLAND MOSUNNY 96 60 30 SW8 29.93S HX 96

HILL CITY MOSUNNY 101 63 28 W7 29.83F HX 103

LIBERAL MOSUNNY 104 52 17 S26G36 29.92S HX 101

GARDEN CITY MOSUNNY 105 52 17 S15G21 29.89F HX 103

DODGE CITY MOSUNNY 103 48 15 S21 29.87F HX 99

PRATT MOSUNNY 106 52 16 SW7 29.85F HX 103

MEDICINE LODGE N/A 110 55 16 S15G22 29.81F HX 109

....Northeast Kansas....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

CONCORDIA PTSUNNY 91 75 59 S7 29.83F HX 101

TOPEKA SUNNY 102 77 45 S9 29.80S HX 118

MANHATTAN MOSUNNY 97 72 44 CALM 29.80R HX 105

LAWRENCE SUNNY 100 74 43 SE8 29.80S HX 112

OLATHE SUNNY 97 73 45 S8 29.82R HX 107

EMPORIA SUNNY 105 63 25 S15G22 29.82S HX 108

....Oklahoma....

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

GAGE SUNNY 106 51 16 S12G23 29.89F HX 103

PONCA CITY SUNNY 108 58 19 S10G20 29.82F HX 108

BARTLESVILLE MOSUNNY 108 61 21 S6G18 29.83S HX 110

TULSA MOSUNNY 106 59 21 SW12G22 29.83F HX 106

OKLAHOMA CITY MOSUNNY 105 60 22 S12 29.89F HX 106

Note: "fair" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no

significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

Oklahoma:

WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR OKLAHOMA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

400 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

OKZ001>007-009>012-014-015-017-102200-

NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE PANHANDLE

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

GAGE SUNNY 106 51 16 S12G23 29.89F HX 103

GUYMON MOSUNNY 103 49 16 S15G23 29.90F HX 99

ENID/VANCE AFB MOSUNNY 107 56 18 S15G23 29.85F HX 106

$$

OKZ016-021>023-033>039-044-045-102200-

SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

LAWTON/REGL MOSUNNY 103 58 22 S6 29.88F HX 102

LAWTON/FT SILL MOSUNNY 104 59 23 S12G21 29.87F HX 104

FREDERICK MOSUNNY 104 58 21 S14G22 29.85F HX 104

CLINTON SUNNY 103 52 18 S14 29.92F HX 100

HOBART N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG 29.90F

ALTUS AFB SUNNY 104 59 22 SE17G28 29.88F HX 104

$$

OKZ018>020-024>031-102200-

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

OKLAHOMA CITY MOSUNNY 105 60 22 S12 29.89F HX 106

OKC/WILEY POST SUNNY 105 59 22 S16G22 29.88F HX 105

OKC/TINKER AFB SUNNY 103 60 24 S17G26 29.90F HX 103

STILLWATER SUNNY 109 58 18 S20 29.85S HX 109

GUTHRIE N/A 106 58 20 S7G21 29.86S HX 106

$$

OKZ008-013-054>072-102200-

NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

TULSA MOSUNNY 106 59 21 SW12G22 29.83F HX 106

TULSA/JONES SUNNY 107 60 21 SW10G18 29.85S HX 108

PONCA CITY SUNNY 108 58 19 S10G20 29.82F HX 108

BARTLESVILLE MOSUNNY 108 61 21 S6G18 29.83S HX 110

MUSKOGEE SUNNY 105 62 24 S13 29.89F HX 107

$$

OKZ032-040>043-046>053-073>077-102200-

SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

ARDMORE/DWNTWN SUNNY 95 57 28 S14 29.90F HX 94

MCALESTER SUNNY 102 63 27 VRB7 29.90F HX 104

What is scary is that for 2 or perhaps 3 runs about 8 days ago ... both the ECM and operational GFS were flagging the current heat dome to set up over OHIO/PA.

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83/56, high of 84. Awesome wx day and an awesome start to July.

btw...BOS is +3.3....quite the cool and rainy summer. lmaosmiley.gif

Felt/feels kind of hot to me, actually... Went out to the store a few ago and it was 87 on car thermometer the whole time. Thing is, there is enough meso net sites with upper 80s to assume at least a few are ligit. It's just one of those days were the warmest temps are in between the ASOS sites.

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Felt/feels kind of hot to me, actually... Went out to the store a few ago and it was 87 on car thermometer the whole time. Thing is, there is enough meso net sites with upper 80s to assume at least a few are ligit. It's just one of those days were the warmest temps are in between the ASOS sites.

I was being sarcastic. I don't know if its "hot" but its a warm summer day.

Should've said July and not summer as BOS is -0.3 on the summer and +1.08" on precip.

Ok, but -.3 in the summer isn't exactly "cool and rainy", its average. -.3 in the summer is still pretty hot.

btw, Where do you get the seasonal anomalies?

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Ok, but -.3 in the summer isn't exactly "cool and rainy", its average. -.3 in the summer is still pretty hot.

btw, Where do you get the seasonal anomalies?

Well of course average summer weather is pretty warm. Even below average summer weather can be "warm". But when we talk departures, we are talking anomalies.

If people want to claim a 39/23 day in January is cold around here, then I'll laugh at them. Sure, its cold in an absolute sense as the average temp was below freezing, but that day will be a +7 in ORH. I wouldn't call it a torch either since I think of double digit daily departures as torches. But if we got 10 days straight of that, then it would add up to a composite torch.

Seasonal anomaly can be calculated if you have the normals and then just look up each day's high and low and average temp. Excel does the rest.

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Well of course average summer weather is pretty warm. Even below average summer weather can be "warm". But when we talk departures, we are talking anomalies.

If people want to claim a 39/23 day in January is cold around here, then I'll laugh at them. Sure, its cold in an absolute sense as the average temp was below freezing, but that day will be a +7 in ORH. I wouldn't call it a torch either since I think of double digit daily departures as torches. But if we got 10 days straight of that, then it would add up to a composite torch.

Seasonal anomaly can be calculated if you have the normals and then just look up each day's high and low and average temp. Excel does the rest.

Yeah its all relative.

And yeah I knew you could do that, but I wasn't sure if there was a way you could do it by just clicking on a link. tongue.gif

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My first run / hike / climb at 100+ temps. The worst part was actually that the rocks were scalding hot. I could only support myself for a few seconds before intense pain set in, and came away with some interesting burns on my palms

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Blue Hill has some new data sets available...using their temp records from the 70's till the present, June averaged a smidge below normal...but if you take their entire temp data set, June actually averaged above normal...

another data set shows the average time of the wild blueberry ripening has gotten earlier and earlier since records started being kept...

things that make you go, Hmmmm?

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Today's going to be nasty...mid 80's to near 90F with dews creeping towards 70F.

Tomorrow is going to be downright brutal, with temps from the mid 80's to the lower 90's with dews from the lower 70's to perhaps mid 70's! Thank God we have a convective threat tomorrow. Just going to be filthy outside.

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