nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 sun is back out after a very nice twenty minute shower, 77/72 nice and humid! Unreal humidity here...79.4/74, just cooked lunch in the kitchen with no A/C, gross. Euro backed off on the heat again. NAO crunches the bulk of it to our south and southwest. That's what I like to hear We just need to get through a few more weeks and then the chance of the real torrid 95-100F stuff goes way down, especially there. Looks like Kevin will be in the 60s on Thursday. I hope the front makes it here. I am longing for a dry airmass, been incredibly swampy in Westchester this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Monday and Tuesday look like 90 again ahead of the mild down on Wed/Thurs You haven't had 90 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Monday and Tuesday look like 90 again ahead of the mild down on Wed/Thurs yep nice and hot baby! next 4 days are 88 85 83 89, by Wed BDR should be close to +5 for the month, well above normal, boston and orh are cooking as well, they should both have pretty substantial positive departures ahead of any cool down, even if it does matierialize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 You haven't had 90 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Wow, orh already +3.6 and Boston +4.0 they maybe close to + 6 or +7 by mid week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 You haven't had 90 yet. Are you 100% sure on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Wow, orh already +3.6 and Boston +4.0 they maybe close to + 6 or +7 by mid week! A 1 day mild down next week..before the Pig ridge from hell moves in and kills hundreds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Wow, orh already +3.6 and Boston +4.0 they maybe close to + 6 or +7 by mid week! Are you actually aware of what it would take to get them up to +6 or +7 by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Wow, orh already +3.6 and Boston +4.0 they maybe close to + 6 or +7 by mid week! They won't be that high...normal for BOS now is 82/65. NWS forecast has 75/68 today (east winds), 83/66 Saturday, 82/66 Sunday, 84/71 Monday, and 84/62 Tuesday. Those aren't big departures...it's the middle of July, Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Wow, orh already +3.6 and Boston +4.0 they maybe close to + 6 or +7 by mid week! Lol, no they wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 They won't be that high...normal for BOS now is 82/65. NWS forecast has 75/68 today (east winds), 83/66 Saturday, 82/66 Sunday, 84/71 Monday, and 84/62 Tuesday. Those aren't big departures...it's the middle of July, Joe. Facts are facts, Boston is +4 for the month. Nate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 They won't be that high...normal for BOS now is 82/65. NWS forecast has 75/68 today (east winds), 83/66 Saturday, 82/66 Sunday, 84/71 Monday, and 84/62 Tuesday. Those aren't big departures...it's the middle of July, Joe. It's becoming a broken record in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I see a lot of cool talk, yet all I see are impressive positive monthly departures, somebody has to love the warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Are you 100% sure on that? Unless you calibrated your thermometer to all of the sudden read a lot warmer than KCTTOLLA4 on the mesonet site at 860 feet, then yes, you have not hit 90F. Their high is 88.2F on the year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Unless you calibrated your thermometer to all of the sudden read a lot warmer than KCTTOLLA4 on the mesonet site at 860 feet, then yes, you have not hit 90F. Their high is 88.2F on the year so far. LoL..I knew that's what you had done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Facts are facts, Boston is +4 for the month. Nate. One week of +4 can be dented pretty quickly...if that were an entire month's worth, then it would be very impressive. If Boston holds with their current 73/68 for thus far today, then they would lose a full degree off their monthly departure down to about +3 on the month. That's just one day doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 One week of +4 can be dented pretty quickly...if that were an entire month's worth, then it would be very impressive. If Boston holds with their current 73/68 for thus far today, then they would lose a full degree off their monthly departure down to about +3 on the month. That's just one day doing that. I understand its easy to knock of departures early on in the month, however, I do think most areas will see small to moderate positive departures over the next 5 days, and as the month goes on its much harder to lose or gain either way. Even though the trough and block have been in place, its been warm, its been a very nice summer so far, warm enough for everything but not too hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 One week of +4 can be dented pretty quickly...if that were an entire month's worth, then it would be very impressive. If Boston holds with their current 73/68 for thus far today, then they would lose a full degree off their monthly departure down to about +3 on the month. That's just one day doing that. We also might be able to get some below normal readings after the mid-week front if the 12z GFS is correct. I could use a couple of nights in the 50s, give the poor AC a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I understand its easy to knock of departures early on in the month, however, I do think most areas will see small to moderate positive departures over the next 5 days, and as the month goes on its much harder to lose or gain either way. Even though the trough and block have been in place, its been warm, its been a very nice summer so far, warm enough for everything but not too hot. Even small + departures would lower the monthly value if its up near +4. In order to get to something like +6 or +7, we'll have to average like +10 over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I understand its easy to knock of departures early on in the month, however, I do think most areas will see small to moderate positive departures over the next 5 days, and as the month goes on its much harder to lose or gain either way. Even though the trough and block have been in place, its been warm, its been a very nice summer so far, warm enough for everything but not too hot. We haven't had much of a trough despite the -NAO. The hemisphere is really torching, few areas of below normal heights this June. Both satellites showed a warm global anomaly (UAH@+.31C, RSS@+.28C) compared to the last few months, probably because of the cold stratosphere causing a warmer than normal lower troposphere. This means that despite the blocking, there's not much cool air to tap. Here was the RSS map of the globe's anomalies for June, pretty mild: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 8, 2011 Author Share Posted July 8, 2011 We also might be able to get some below normal readings after the mid-week front if the 12z GFS is correct. I could use a couple of nights in the 50s, give the poor AC a rest. It's been the summer modeling behavior; we get 2 days of flagging history heat, and then no sooner, boom, this kind of complete and utter particle reversal is put out - this run is utterly antithetic. I'd use caution though - the GFS and ECM are both guilty of overplaying those sharp N-S oriented flow scenarios in their respective medium ranges ... substantially so... The NAO is weakly negative now, but it is increasingly easterly based, which opens a lot of room for interpretation as to how that teleconnector will correlate locally. The mean it go positive out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I split off the rain event for you guys today into another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Awesome conditions right now. Full sun with temps near 70F and a stiff N wind gusting to near 20mph. Dews are falling through the 50s too. As much as I love summer I can't wait for that first autumn airmass with dews in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Did anyone else have an issue where BUFKIT seems to "lose" the parcel for specifically 13-24z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Did anyone else have an issue where BUFKIT seems to "lose" the parcel for specifically 13-24z? It looks ok for BOS, what exactly are you seeing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 It looks ok for BOS, what exactly are you seeing? yeh i dunno here. it cuts the parcel plotting off of the chart at the 4pm interval, today, and then summarily the rest at 5pm, and doesn't plot the parcel again until sometime on Monday. Does it somehow only plot by necessity?? if THAT's the case i want someone f k n' flogged man! there's that, and ... BUFKIT sometimes can't find the file you just downloaded - that's a different bone to pick though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 yeh i dunno here. it cuts the parcel plotting off of the chart at the 4pm interval, today, and then summarily the rest at 5pm, and doesn't plot the parcel again until sometime on Monday. Does it somehow only plot by necessity?? if THAT's the case i want someone f k n' flogged man! there's that, and ... BUFKIT sometimes can't find the file you just downloaded - that's a different bone to pick though. That's weird. It plots that yellow line up to the equilibrium level for BOS from what I can tell. 06z NAM anyways? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 That's weird. It plots that yellow line up to the equilibrium level for BOS from what I can tell. 06z NAM anyways? Scott - Here's the run down - perhaps this is my own ignorance in play (wouldn't be the first) but someone please explain this... 1) Full parcel presented... 2) Top part of troposphere magically disappears at 4pm today (maybe the end of the world was really this Saturday and not that deal a month ago?) 3) One hour later ... no parcel exists at all... 4) This persists until Monday at 12pm, when it suddenly comes back Is this expected behavior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 John, I think that's because the CIN is just too much and therefore the parcel cannot rise and generate CAPE. I do see what you are saying, but that's my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Alright - back on topic then (and hopefully someone can provide an answer for the Bufkit usage above). Hottest air of the season arrives Monday ...should last through Tuesday, and then we'll see if a trough incurs as deeply as the odd-ball looking operational ECM would have it for mid week (GFS less guilty perhaps). That should result a day or day and a half recession back to normalcy, then a rebound to above normal with perhaps excessive not impossible for period in the la la range. I have heard some mention -NAO doing deeds on the pattern. I'm not sure that is the culprit. I suspect it is modeling error/bias there. The mass fields don't reflect a -NAO going forward. They are positive looking; more so, they are positive looking where the teleconnector is strongest for our lat/lon - which is to say the D. Straight and Greenland regions of the NAO domain. That area is showing negative middle latitude height anomalies evolving, and doing so in the operational and ensembles alike, along with evolving low level negative wind-related flux (south to north). The non-operational mean does delay by perhaps 2 days in (at least) the GFS ensemble members. That may be the way to go anyway; either way, the general vector of the NAO modality is up, so support for lowering heights over the NE CONUS is falling in concert from about 2 days from now right out to the end of week 2. The short term, now through Wednesday, shows a 2 day burner in residual week mode of the NAO, yet it appears we will indeed manage heat. Now, any given D5 of the ECMWF model going back this summer so far has had a trough bias over our lat/lon. What I am seeing here is a generalized emerging positive NAO in the west sector (again...where it counts particularly at this time of year). Yet, the ECM seems to violate the R-Wave length scheme by taking innocuous permutations in southern Canada, and blowing them up in using them to carve out these magestic looking troughs replete with big backside autumn looking polar highs, while the heights over Greenland/D. Straight have nascently gone into negative anomaly - that stretches the breadth of negative anomalies too January for my taste and is not supported in teleconnectors that heavily favor a shorter wave length. It's like looking at a radar trend clearly indicating the end of snow storm replete with back edge and waning intensity bands, and then promptly intercepting one of Kevin's posts that reads, "....with hours and hours of heavy snow still to go...". Nelson Munts: "ha ha" Seriously, I suspect what all this amounts to is simple. The NAO is indicated to go positive; we should see heights rise over eastern N/A. That said, the operational ECM tries to live both worlds of doing so, but then ripping troughs seemingly from no where like Kevin stuck in one of his patented feed-back loops. The GFS's progressivity bias seems to by accident (for lack of better word) account for that by skipping said troughs east ward like flat stone on a still pond; but may also not be amplified enough with the depth of the subtropical ridge heights as a result. I am not sure the truth lies with either going forward. In short, I see 90-95F heat for Monday and Tuesday, a recession to around normal for a day and half, then a resurgence. As to how much of a resurgence we'll leave that up to Kevin to inform us when the clarity comes into focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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