A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Been really busy and haven't been following things closely lately, but a quick glance shows some decent potential today, i really like watching these kind of setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Been really busy and haven't been following things closely lately, but a quick glance shows some decent potential today, i really like watching these kind of setups. It sounds like the case especially overnight into early Monday morning if an MCS develops in Western Minnesota or South Dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 DVN 88D measuring 48k ft storm tops northeast of Des Moines. Latest SPC outlook mentions MCV associated with the ongoing convection out in Iowa. Should be interesting to see how this evolves over the next several hours. Already plenty of heat and humidity out ahead of this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Those look like supercells in nrn/central IL. Would be believable with an MCV in play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Those look like supercells in nrn/central IL. Would be believable with an MCV in play... I'm still trying to figure today out, still up in the air on whats going to happen...if storms will develop later on associated with the MCV, behind it in IA and move ESE or both. ideally I'd like my 5pm tee time to be rain free and get clobbered after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Cu going up all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 Those look like supercells in nrn/central IL. Would be believable with an MCV in play... Those images are probably why I'm now in the game for the slight risk today here in Springfield, IL (15% hail and wind) per the latest SPC Day 1: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'm still trying to figure today out, still up in the air on whats going to happen...if storms will develop later on associated with the MCV, behind it in IA and move ESE or both. ideally I'd like my 5pm tee time to be rain free and get clobbered after dark. I'm leaning towards the MCV. Behind it there's really nothing to set off convection. There's decent mid-level winds, but increasing CINH, building heights, and lack of surface convergence makes me doubt anything will fire. I think the MCV will continue to drift eastward and then reignite somewhere over southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois later this afternoon. Looks like the QC will get skipped by this feature, but Chicagoland may be in a perfect position to get hammered by this if it does end up reigniting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Chunk of SEMI cut out of the new Day 2....and 30% probs added in the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 instability axis runs from the IA/MO border northeastward to northwest IL ahead of that dying convection from earlier/leftover clouds. best 0-6km shear (>50kts located in central IA) and will continue eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 222 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT * AT 219 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SELFRIDGE...OR 56 MILES SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN SIOUX AND SOUTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTIES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. MD as well: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616... VALID 101908Z - 102045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 CONTINUES. SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND STORMS NEAR BIS AND OVER SIOUX CNTY ND ARE EXHIBITING RADAR INDICATED MESOCYCLONES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD INTO SERN ND AS VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS STREAMING NWD ALONG SD/ND BORDER. PROBABILITY OF STORMS OVER SRN ND BECOMING SFC-BASED IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS A CONTINUATION OF THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND/OR ESEWD PROPAGATION OF EXISTING STORMS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES INTO PARTS OF NRN SD. A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER THESE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..WEISS.. 07/10/2011 Edit: Two tor warnings now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Interesting storm mergers/interactions with the cluster near Bis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 50/20 tor watch now out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Cells near cr in iowa have gotten over the hump and strengthening, early stages of a new mcs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Cells near cr in iowa have gotten over the hump and strengthening, early stages of a new mcs? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL/SERN IA...NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 101945Z - 102145Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN IA IN THE WAKE OF THE MCV MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN WI. STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE OVER SERN IA INTO NRN IL WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG OVER NRN IL TO 2500-4000 J/KG OVER SRN IA...AND OBJECTIVE MESOSCALE ANALYSES ARE INDICATING THE CAP IS WEAKENING OVER THIS AREA. A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM NWRN IL ACROSS SRN IA AND THIS MAY PROVIDE A SUBTLE FOCUS FOR NEW STORM INITIATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING CUMULUS STREETS FEEDING NWD INTO THE BOUNDARY REGION WHERE GENERALLY WEAK /POSSIBLY ELEVATED/ CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED...INCLUDING NEW STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED RECENTLY OVER JONES CNTY IA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THIS REGION AND IF STORMS SHOW SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION...A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. ..WEISS.. 07/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Just upgraded to a moderate along the SD/ND/MN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Mean couplet on that northern cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Effective bulk shear up to 50kts over eastern Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Just got everything set up here at the park site. Nice developing line of storms off to the west set to move in within the next 1-2hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 That cell in southern ND continues to look beastly on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Looks like action will stay to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 That cell in southern ND continues to look beastly on radar. Watch, everyone will go after the northern dude, and it will die out, and tail end charlie will be a tornado producing machine..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 The southern cell is slightly behind, which is allowing the north cell to maintain its inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Rotation is folding over near Kulm, ND in SW LaMoure County. Highly likely this possible tornado is completely rain-wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 the storms in northwest IL don't look that great right now, lets see what happens over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Yeah, why does it insist on range folding? Why cant it just max out whatever scale you have, and then you have to go read the actual value?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 358 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... DICKEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWESTERN LAMOURE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MERRICOURT...OR 49 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF A LARGE TORNADO. THOSE IN AND NEAR MERRICOURT AND MONANGO SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MONANGO...FULLERTON...ELLENDALE...GUELPH AND OAKES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 The storms on the North Dakota/South Dakota state line are lining up some now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 436 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN DICKEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT * AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR OAKES...OR 51 MILES SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... OAKES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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