Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 New Day 2 shows the slight risk expanded southward to include most of northern Illinois--Chicago and Peoria are now in play (but not quite here to Springfield yet--but I wouldn't be surprised if that changes on one of the Day 1 forecasts tomorrow): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 12z has 3-4 kJ/kg of CAPE and 40-60 kts of sfc-500mb shear of SEMI Monday night....doesn't seem to have any precip initiate though. Which IMO is weird because H7 temps are not progged to be that high, and it shows no CIN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Which IMO is weird because H7 temps are not progged to be that high, and it shows no CIN... It's not weird at all. You have no trigger. You're in a region of strong AVA at 00z. You'd have to wait until the vort max over Galena/Dubuque reaches you to provide a source of lift for convection. EDIT: Also, you have no sfc convergence to provide a focus for that lift, so even as that vort max approaches, you're not likely to see much in the way of at least sfc-based convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Sweet stuff right there. It's a beautiful thing, new day 2 extended SLGT further east into all of northern IL. thoughts on tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Reeeeeally reaching here, but the 24hr RUC shows convection kicking off over Iowa around noon tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 It's a beautiful thing, new day 2 extended SLGT further east into all of northern IL. thoughts on tomorrow? If the GFS and the 4km WRF are right we'll need a moderate risk. I don't trust the NAM. My house at 00z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Hmmmm, this could be bigger than originally forecast across the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest. Although, most thought we would see more than one severe weather day from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 The 12z NMM is also blowing up a cluster of storms in eastern IA into southern WI/northern IL tomorrow afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 backed sfc flow to 45kt westerly H5 winds around DVN tomorrow at 21z off the 18z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Pretty respectable swath of SFC-500mb bulk shear across the corn belt later tomorrow. Nice bullseye of 40kt bulk shear moving from Iowa into northern Illinois tomorrow evening. The vertical wind profile Thundersnow mentioned may help to develop strong mesovorticies along the leading edge of the QLCS after it matures/develops a cool pool. Assuming this evolves as shown by several of the models QLCS/MCS should make it all the way into Indiana as the stronger mid-level winds will maintain that far east. Instability will slowly tail off as it pushes east, but the maturity of it and the increasing nocturnal LLJ may keep it going well into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 For anyone interested, Ryan Maue runs 4 km graphics of the new NAM that will be nested within the new operational NAM's domain across the CONUS. This is NOT SPC 4 km wrf but something that will be new when the parallel NAM goes active. It will run 4 times a day just like the regular NAM products. It runs hourly to 36 then in three hour chunks to 60. http://www.coaps.fsu...cref_conus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 geez....the 12z 4km wrf has a textbook bow echo tomorrow evening from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IA...can the waa wing nicely on the sim ref loop. 0z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 0z run... Jesus...look at the WAA wing along the IL/WI border...that would be another historic derecho in all likelihood if the GFS thermos and shear profiles play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 holy smokes....and my 5pm tee time would work out too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Jesus...look at the WAA wing along the IL/WI border...that would be another historic derecho in all likelihood if the GFS thermos and shear profiles play out. holy smokes....and my 5pm tee time would work out too! Better tie the tent down well... I'm bringing my equipment with, so if it occurs i'll be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Jesus...look at the WAA wing along the IL/WI border...that would be another historic derecho in all likelihood if the GFS thermos and shear profiles play out. Ya we'll have to see kinda a messy pattern, high shear low surface convergence to the north could go up, or the WI, IL, IA stuff could go off, it'll be interesting to see the probs we could have a few areas of severe weather going on. Bulk shear sure is impressive up north just gotta see if the boundary can sneak up here. Down south you guys just need that 500 s/w to get things going hopefully it pops things because the maintenance and upstream growth potential is large. I think a decent MCS threat exists for Tony's region with a chance for discrete's at the beg. we could have some big hailers and a few tornadoes up here but still conditional on the boundary layer return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 For anyone interested, Ryan Maue runs 4 km graphics of the new NAM that will be nested within the new operational NAM's domain across the CONUS. This is NOT SPC 4 km wrf but something that will be new when the parallel NAM goes active. It will run 4 times a day just like the regular NAM products. It runs hourly to 36 then in three hour chunks to 60. http://www.coaps.fsu...cref_conus.html So are they replacing the NAM model with this newer version, or just nesting new parameters into the current NAM. I see it goes operational the 12th of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 So are they replacing the NAM model with this newer version, or just nesting new parameters into the current NAM. I see it goes operational the 12th of this month. No the current NAM is being replaced with a signficantly updated version. The "parallel" is already being tested on NCEP's parallel model website. http://www.nco.ncep....wpara/analysis/ http://www.americanw...grade-graphics/ The 4 km NAM will be a nested run over the CONUS within the operational domain. I as well as Chi Storm and I am sure others have been using the parallel NAM, and it has significantly outperformed the current operational with the biggest difference being it seemingly can actually get the synoptics right (something it could never do before and was typically worthless beyond 24-36 hours). Unfortunately, the launch has been delayed until sometime in August. (see the linked thread above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 holy sh**! What a whopper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 No the current NAM is being replaced with a signficantly updated version. The "parallel" is already being tested on NCEP's parallel model website. http://www.nco.ncep....wpara/analysis/ http://www.americanw...grade-graphics/ The 4 km NAM will be a nested run over the CONUS within the operational domain. I as well as Chi Storm and I am sure others have been using the parallel NAM, and it has significantly outperformed the current operational with the biggest difference being it seemingly can actually get the synoptics right (something it could never do before and was typically worthless beyond 24-36 hours). Unfortunately, the launch has been delayed until sometime in August. (see the linked thread above). Awesome, thanks for the info, and link! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 holy sh**! What a whopper! for some reason that link isn't opening for me, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'd be suprised to not see a 30% wind contour across the area on the new day 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 0z run... If this holds up, could be similar to the fast moving derecho on June 8, except a tad further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'd be suprised to not see a 30% wind contour across the area on the new day 1. I could see the potential, heck I could argue maybe 30 with hatching if trends continue for the afternoon update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I could see the potential, heck I could argue maybe 30 with hatching if trends continue for the afternoon update. The 6z outlook certainly hedges toward the conservative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 On another note, Monday is looking good across Southern and Central South Dakota with a shortwave trough moving east into the area along with 40-50 kts of bulk shear, favorable hodographs, CAPE in excess of 2000 j/kg and relatively weak capping. However, the relatively meager flow in the lower levels will likely limit tornadic potential. East of Rapid City along the I-90 corridor: SPC AC 100559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CONUS... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A BELT OF FASTER FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY...A VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. IN THE WEST...AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG SLOWLY SWD ALONG THE W COAST...MAKING VERY LITTLE IF ANY EWD PROGRESS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING ERN CANADA WILL EXPAND A BIT SWD...RESULTING IN THE EVOLUTION OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. LATE. AT THE SURFACE...GENERALLY WEAK FEATURES ARE EXPECTED...THOUGH A FAIRLY WELL-PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD IS PROGGED TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT. ...N CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... WHILE LARGER-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THIS REGION DOWNSTREAM OF THE W COAST TROUGH...MODELS FORECAST A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO SHIFT INTO/ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ASSIST IN AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE NEAR/N OF THE FRONT. WITH LOW-LEVEL SELYS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY WNWWD INTO MT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE RESIDING BENEATH MODERATE WLYS/SWLYS AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. WHILE SOME QUESTION EXISTS REGARDING OVERALL STORM COVERAGE GIVEN BACKGROUND RIDGING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. STILL...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 15%/SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM -- WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A PROBABILITY UPGRADE IN LATER FORECASTS. FARTHER E...LESS NUMEROUS/LESS VIGOROUS STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS A VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLE INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER SHEAR AS COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W SUGGESTS LESS SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK EWD INTO THIS REGION. ...THE SOUTHEAST... AFTERNOON HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. WEAK FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE STORMS...THOUGH 10-15 KT NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW A SEMI-ORGANIZED BAND OR BANDS OF STORMS TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS GA/AL AND VICINITY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT/ISOLATED WIND POTENTIAL. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I remember you saying that you are camping, but where exactly? I love severe weather, but I always hated it when I used to camp a lot. EDIT: oh, and obviously, we want reports...and pics. Better tie the tent down well... I'm bringing my equipment with, so if it occurs i'll be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 So what's the thinking on the storms in WC Wisconsin? Do they have the potential to become severe. Looks like they're at least holding their intensity for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I remember you saying that you are camping, but where exactly? I love severe weather, but I always hated it when I used to camp a lot. EDIT: oh, and obviously, we want reports...and pics. I'll be out at White Pines Forest State Park, which is just south of Mount Morris, IL. I'll probably throw up the live stream and/or pics if anything occurs in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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