Ian Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The eastern cell is probably producing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Folks in Woodworth best be taking cover at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NWRN MN...EXTREME NERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 611... VALID 082238Z - 090045Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 611 CONTINUES. THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 611. A NEW TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. CELLS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS CNTRL ND...WITH MULTIPLE CELLS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ROTATION ON RADAR. SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AND...BRING GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. WITH CELLS REMAINING SUPERCELLULAR...TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ..JEWELL.. 07/08/2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 541 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/ * AT 538 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR DODGE...OR 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKINSON. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ZAP AROUND 555 PM CDT. HAZEN AROUND 620 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Will be interesting to see what happens when the LLJ really ramps up this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The MD seems to indicate the storms will remain largely discrete. EHI values across parts of ND are explosive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Tornado watch issued E of the current tornado watch. The watch is valid until 1 am cdt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 CoD crew is on the supercell south of BIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 sfc inflow and associated low level meso really wrapped up in the notch of the supercell south of BIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Tornado warning re-issued on that storm It also looks like it is absorbing that smaller cell that developed to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 NDC029-059-085-082345- /O.CON.KBIS.TO.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110708T2345Z/ EMMONS ND-MORTON ND-SIOUX ND- 639 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN SIOUX... SOUTHEASTERN MORTON AND NORTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT... AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CANNON BALL...OR 26 MILES SOUTH OF BISMARCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... CANNON BALL AND FORT RICE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE OR RIVER...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE LARGE CAPSIZING WAVES...EVEN ON SMALL BODIES OF WATER. MOVE INTO DOCK AND SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM. Storm to the east also went tor warned again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Looking like on radar that there is a broken line of storms starting to form W of Bismarck. Still got the supercells ahead of the line in Emmons County and Stutsman County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Rotation starting to ramp up again NW of Hazelton in northern Emmons County moving NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 That storm could go on for quite a while longer, considering it really doesn't have much to cut off its inflow. Still has a nasty couplet Edit: That could be quite a large tornado if it is on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Intense couplet continues on that supercell east of Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Napolean...oh my.. Double trouble there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Sundays starting to look a bit better, nice hodos and decent bulk shear around Fargo and eastern SD, with plenty of cape, but the nam is still in its own camp with bringing the boundary all way back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 As strange as the GFS has predicted this storm, it seemed to relatively nail today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 As strange as the GFS has predicted this storm, it seemed to relatively nail today. I'm hoping the GFS nails this storm compared to the NAM, which has the whole system practically passing the Southern Great Lakes without even a whimper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 I'm hoping the GFS nails this storm compared to the NAM, which has the whole system practically passing the Southern Great Lakes without even a whimper. LOT isn't bullish, (are they ever?) on this system, but they aren't writing it off either. We are outlooked for a slight risk on Monday, according to the SPC. We'll see what happens. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EXITS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL HANG UP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. WITH NO REAL GOOD PUSH ALOFT...THIS BOUNDARY AND BETTER FORCING AND PRECIP WILL ALSO REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASING DURING THIS TIME WITH SREF GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEAK TO MODERATE UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH WITH BETTER FORCING REMAINING TO THE NORTH...FEEL THAT MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH GOOD 850MB FLOW ADVECTING MUCH WARMER AIR NORTH INTO THE REGION WILL HELP FOR A SECONDARY WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING AS LLJ INTERACTS WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. FRONT WHICH REMAINING TO THE WEST FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AS ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP LIFT THIS FRONT SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 LOT isn't bullish, (are they ever?) on this system, but they aren't writing it off either. We are outlooked for a slight risk on Monday, according to the SPC. We'll see what happens. Now it looks like Monday is our day. Might see a few storms sneak in on Sunday, but Monday looks to have the better instability for Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 The 12z GFS looks to form an MCS in Central Iowa tomorrow afternoon and propogate it eastward throughout the rest of the day into Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. It may have implications for the John Deere Classic. Hopefully if something like that does form, it moves just north of the Quad Cities so weather does not plague the finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 The GFS continues to show a nice H5 jet streak extending from the Quad Cities into the Chicago/Detroit areas on Monday. Directional shear is pathetic but I'm not expecting miracles here, just a decent damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 A little wary about the warm mid level temps on Monday. That is something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 geez....the 12z 4km wrf has a textbook bow echo tomorrow evening from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IA...can the waa wing nicely on the sim ref loop. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 geez....the 12z 4km wrf has a textbook bow echo tomorrow evening from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IA...can the waa wing nicely on the sim ref loop. http://www.emc.ncep....nt4km/conus/12/ Sweet stuff right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 geez....the 12z 4km wrf has a textbook bow echo tomorrow evening from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IA...can the waa wing nicely on the sim ref loop. If that were to work out, camping will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Interesting mid-level speed max over northern Illinois later tomorrow afternoon on the 12z GFS. NAM doesn't show it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 geez....the 12z 4km wrf has a textbook bow echo tomorrow evening from eastern IA into southern WI/northern IA...can the waa wing nicely on the sim ref loop. Also has a monster supercell over South Dakota. Things look pretty good in the Dakotas on Sunday with 40-50 knots of bulk shear, westerlies, and CAPE in excess of 3000 j/kg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 The GFS continues to show a nice H5 jet streak extending from the Quad Cities into the Chicago/Detroit areas on Monday. Directional shear is pathetic but I'm not expecting miracles here, just a decent damaging wind event. 12z has 3-4 kJ/kg of CAPE and 40-60 kts of sfc-500mb shear of SEMI Monday night....doesn't seem to have any precip initiate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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