Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 GFS/GEM would support supercells here in southern Manitoba late Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Helicity values across North Dakota tomorrow look very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 That is an impressive Supercell picture from Red Deer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The 0z NAM develops a nice MCS near FSD sunday evening and takes it ESE to DBQ/DVN by 12z monday morning. I'll be out at White Pines Forest State Park, out in Ogle Co Sunday-Wednesday. Last year while we were out there we had two MCS's, flooding, and heat/humidity. At one point I thought we were going to float away. We seem to get in on some good storm action every year we go, so i'll be waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 I'll be out at White Pines Forest State Park, out in Ogle Co Sunday-Wednesday. Last year while we were out there we had two MCS's, flooding, and heat/humidity. At one point I thought we were going to float away. We seem to get in on some good storm action every year we go, so i'll be waiting... very nice, doing some camping I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Not many US Tornado outbreaks in July The Oakfield 1996 outbreak was the most intersting one I could find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 00z GFS has much better mid level flow over Indiana on Monday compared to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Not many US Tornado outbreaks in July The Oakfield 1996 outbreak was the most intersting one I could find. 7/2/97 was pretty respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 very nice doing some camping I'm guessing? Yea, with some family and friends. Probably will do a bit of hiking and fishing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 00z GFS has much better mid level flow over Indiana on Monday compared to the last run. you could say that again, brings a nice 40-50kt mid-level jet streak across IA into northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Hmmm, Day 1 only gave a 5% tornado risk.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Day 1 only gave a 5% tornado risk.... which is fine...what were you expecting?? There are alot of mesoscale details that have to be worked out tomorrow which some of the knowledgeable posters have pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Considering strength of the trough, some of the text on the outlook and looking at the models, I expected perhaps a little higher, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Monday is starting to look rather interesting around here...models have trended slower on the cold front timing, not to mention these weak fronts tend to get hung up during the day...so I'm not really worried about an early cold frontal passage at this point. Then as Hoosier and thundersnow12 mentioned, the 00z GFS shows a nice H5 jet streak in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Clouds aplenty right now in western ND with convective leftovers from last night. There are some holes in the clouds in eastern Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 12z GFS looks nice around here for some severe weather sunday...brings a 50kt mid level jet across northern IL with decent amounts of instability and dew points in the 70's and breaking out semi-discrete precip from southern WI down to southeast IA/western IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 17z RUC for SW of Jamestown/SE of Bismarck at 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 The threat seems to have shifted eastward than what was forecast earlier, which baro predicted with the deepening of the trough. The thing looks beautiful on satellite right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Clearing in western ND/eastern MT. It's not taking long for storms to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 230 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DICKINSON NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 610... DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME ERN MT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD AND INTENSIFY FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE AREA. AIR MASS IS CONTINUING TO WARM AND DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VAD PROFILES EXHIBIT CLOCKWISE TURNING HODOGRAPHS AND CONSIDERABLE LOWER LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY SUGGESTING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE BY EVENING AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...WEISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 17z RUC for SW of Jamestown/SE of Bismarck at 00z... Yeah things look to ramp up significantly here as those storms move into a far more favorable sheared environment. SPC mesoanalysis suggests some pretty beefy low level shear Dickinson east. Good clearing too farther E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 baro, SPC has extended the tornado probs and wind probs east in the latest. How are my prospects looking for an MCS tonight here in S MB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 baro, SPC has extended the tornado probs and wind probs east in the latest. How are my prospects looking for an MCS tonight here in S MB? Looks pretty good for elevated DMC up that way--there is a nice mid level theta e axis/zone of WAA ascent with elevated stuff already ongoing in northern ND and thay will spread N increasing overnight, but it will be highly dependent upon which cluster of storms becomes dominant first in terms of MCS development--which will prolly be farther S across eastern NODAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 0-1 KM SRH of 300 m2/s2+ as per mesoanalysis in the area that baro mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 storm southwest of Carson, ND getting really healthy core aloft and starting to spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Tornado warning in New Jersey of all places Edit: New Svr. Tstm warning box places that supercell on a direct path for Bismarck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 522 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT/445 PM MDT/ * AT 420 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO SOUTH OF HALLIDAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DODGE AROUND 430 PM MDT. GOLDEN VALLEY AROUND 540 PM CDT. ZAP AROUND 545 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. Also, Woodworth appears to be in the path of a possible tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 several nd supercells looking nice now. the one nw of jamestown is barely moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Pretty sure we're going down tornado outbreak road now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Seems like everything initiated perfectly, with the supercells crossing the most favorable areas at just the right time Mean couplet on that storm northwest of Jamestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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