baroclinic_instability Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 The caveats are more numerous than we realize I think given the models' poor handling of the convection and convective feedback issues. There doesn't look like there will be much capping and I think that the models are trying to signal early initiation. The NAM would support sig severe by 18z but for some reason has mixed-out low levels leading to LCLs around 1250m. I don't buy that but I don't think anything can honestly be ruled out at this point. The main underscore here is that the synoptic setup would be favorable for a tornado outbreak and that the mesoscale features need to be closely monitored. Yeah well said. I agree as there really is no other way to go it but monitor the details with the caveats in mind--as well as the significant potential. The synoptic setup alone is rather incredible for this time of year as well as geographic location. Talk about an IPV bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 From a pure synoptic perspective this system is absolutely beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 FWIW, the 12z SPC WRF run is an absolutely plastering for the western Dakotas tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 FWIW, the 12z SPC WRF run is an absolutely plastering for the western Dakotas tomorrow afternoon. Seems as though things will be going up pretty quickly tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully not too quick, though. If things can remain isolated enough in the afternoon, that could spell major trouble in W ND/SE SK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 New Day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate risk at some point for this setup (considering we're already at a high-end slight risk for the area). Edit: Although the SPC seems to be downplaying the tornado threat a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 For those potentially chasing in ND tomorrow, where would be a good starting point? Somewhere south of Minot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 For those potentially chasing in ND tomorrow, where would be a good starting point? Somewhere south of Minot? West of Minot, way west. My initial target would be Dickinson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 ALWAYS go to the centroid of the highest SPC tor probabilities Yeah, I'd go a little west of Bismarck, ND: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 As if the Missouri River needed any more rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 18Z NAM just bombed it out farther sub 988. Got to watch these late trends with the powerful PV's. Some mean looking hodos in western and central ND. Deep bombing also results in a frontal boundary displaced farther E on the latest NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 It looks like a powerful alberta clipper, except in summer time... Edit: 60+ knot shear in that ND/South Sask. area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I'd also start watching Sunday IA/MN/WI/IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Saturday looks to have petered out quite a bit, but Sunday could be definitely be something to watch, especially with trough being as strong as its projected to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Latest NAM blows up quite the big MCS in North Dakota/Manitoba tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 How late tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 How late tomorrow night? We'll probably see an MCS by mid evening already with the low level jet really cranking up. NAM would have a mature MCS by late evening/early overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 I'd also start watching Sunday IA/MN/WI/IL... keeping an eye on that as well..30kt westerly flow at H5 with alot of juice and southerly sfc winds could do the trick if things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Alberta TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:49 PM MDT THURSDAY 7 JULY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR SUNDRE =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR OLDS AND DIDSBURY =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR WATER VALLEY AND CREMONA =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR CARSTAIRS AND STIRLINGVILLE. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 4.40 PM A WEATHER WATCHER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF BERGEN ALBERTA. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THE STORM TRACKS TO THE EAST AT 15 KM/H. THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Already producing i see... Edit: That's a pretty intense storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 That Alberta storm is a beauty. Perfectly isolated. Very nice structure, I'd imagine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Alberta TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 4:49 PM MDT THURSDAY 7 JULY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR SUNDRE =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR OLDS AND DIDSBURY =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR WATER VALLEY AND CREMONA =NEW= MOUNTAIN VIEW CO. NEAR CARSTAIRS AND STIRLINGVILLE. Check out the hook visible on Environment Canada radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Check out the hook visible on Environment Canada radar Yeah, that could be a tornado on the ground. Olds may be in trouble. It's a slow mover but it's headed in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Yeah, that could be a tornado on the ground. Olds may be in trouble. It's a slow mover but it's headed in that direction. The supercell is sitting over the town of Sundre right now. If it continues moving due east Harmattan, Eagle Hill, Minaret and Olds are all in trouble. Olds is 30km east of Sundre so at least over an hour to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Here's a radio station in Olds, Alberta listen live link http://cklj.streamon.fm/ So far it's just been commercials and music. But, looks like they are an Alberta Emergency Public Warning System partner as indicated on their website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Tornado warning continued, looks like the hook is about 5km west of Harmattan as best as I can tell on EC radar ==DISCUSSION== EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT 4.40 PM A WEATHER WATCHER REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN JUST SOUTHWEST OF BERGEN ALBERTA. THIS REPORT WAS INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED BY A SECOND WEATHER WATCHER AND BY AN AIRCRAFT FLYING IN THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THIS ROTATING THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS THE STORM TRACKS SLOWLY TO EAST. IN ADDITION WE HAVE HAD NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 That supercell still looks incredibly healthy. Nothing to the south will be impeding that storm any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 That supercell still looks incredibly healthy. Nothing to the south will be impeding that storm any time soon. There's an area of 60dbz about over the town of Harmattan in the possible hook. It's too difficult to tell what it actually is, but that is about the closest thing to a debris ball I have seen yet on EC radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 If this is any indication, then tomorrow could get really dicey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 Here's a radio station in Olds, Alberta listen live link http://cklj.streamon.fm/ So far it's just been commercials and music. But, looks like they are an Alberta Emergency Public Warning System partner as indicated on their website. The station is live on about the tornado warning now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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