OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 IIRC right around that same time (June '98) there was an event in Wisconsin east of Lacrosse where some airforce base measured winds over 125mph. Don't quote me on that, but I think it was something like that. I'll have to look it up when I get back, gotta head out for the evening. The southern Great Lakes derecho, roughly a month prior (May 30-31) to the event in Iowa. 128 mph wind gust measured northeast of Watertown, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 The southern Great Lakes derecho, roughly a month prior (May 30-31) to the event in Iowa. 128 mph wind gust measured northeast of Watertown, WI. Yeah the storm surveys for the West side of Michigan estimated the winds at 130, interestingly enough this also was a nighttime to early morning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yeah, you are right, the storms weren't "good enough".... Perhaps if one of trees around my house had fallen on my car, or my house, would they have rated a "great" from you then? This is the 2nd time in less than 3 weeks I am going mulitple days without power, and this after just replacing everything I lost from my fridge and freezer after the last outage. (On this past Saturday, just finished restocking the meat and other losses from the last outage) Once again, I have to miss work, because I work from home. Since I have no power, I have no computers, so I cannot work. The first power outage cost me a couple of hundred bucks... this one is going to do the same, and its money my girlfriend and I don't have. I am not in the mood to read frivolous comments from some folks on on the sidelines, giving the storms a grade, like it was some sort of academic exercise. Or lamenting that the storms lacked power, or some other feature, denying them the "thrill" they were seeking, what ever it was.. Just so you know.: More trees than I can count were blown down in my neighborhood. Three of them just narrowly missed the houses they close to. At least two cars were damaged by falling trees... I had the sick feeling of watching the wind bend the tree over that is next to my driveway, until it touched my car....my new car... the one I just bought a few weeks ago.. The wind bent the tree over a couple of times, and each time I feared it would snap, and damage my new, hard earned vehicle... It's not a huge tree, but it's not a small one either, but it is big enough to substantially damage the vehicle. If you want to "rate" storms, please do so in a less than glib manner, and keep in mind just how these storms affect the people of the areas they pass through. Power crews are at the hotel I am at, and as they get ready to go to work, and even though they are working in this area, it is still going to be Wednesday evening at the earliest before my lights come back on. So, I am on the way home soon to clean out the fridge and freezer once again, and toss out $$$$ worth of meat, and other perishables. And, face the prospect of another short paycheck.... As far as I am concerned, your "not quite good enough" storms, were, "good enough"... perhaps, they were even, " a bit much". Now, when a prediction goes up for severe weather, I pay closer attention to it, and look at it with more concern. And I am giving serious concern to seriously curtailing a trip in the fall to see my son graduate basic training so we can buy a generator, so I am prepared for the next time... and based on what I have seen so far this summer, there WILL be a "next time" I didn't say the storms weren't good enough, I was responding to AppsRunner who said a meteorologist in Toledo said the severe weather event could have been locally worse if it wasn't for the cloud debris from the MCS, and I was agreeing with that thought as it was true. If you're going to respond to my posts at least what you're talking about first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yeah the storm surveys for the West side of Michigan estimated the winds at 130, interestingly enough this also was a nighttime to early morning event. "Area of Lower Michigan affected by the worst damage from the May 30-31, 1998 derecho. Red numbers are maximum measured wind gusts in mph. Orange numbers are estimated maximum gusts in mph, based on a damage survey by Grand Rapids NWS Forecast Office meteorologists. Thirteen Michigan counties (noted in black lettering and within light blue border) together were declared a Federal Disaster Area by the Federal Emergency Managers Association. The purple "S" represents where a "seiche" took place on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yeah the storm surveys for the West side of Michigan estimated the winds at 130, interestingly enough this also was a nighttime to early morning event. I'm sure there are more comprehensive studies out there, but the LLJ is pretty critical in sustaining these derechos. Hence the tendency for these to occur at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 That is the ECMWF valid at 00z on the 20th (so Tuesday evening). The shaded is MUCAPE (>4000 is white), and maximum values are pushing 5000 J/kg. The thin black lines with numbers is precip (to give an idea of expected convection) and as one might guess the Euro is developing something north of the strongest instability and cap. Black barbs are 850 mb winds, with a decent 30 kt LLJ already at 00z. Light blue barbs are roughly 0-2 km storm relative winds, and you can see values near the convection in excess of 35 kt, indicating the potential to balance the motion of the cold pool as well as its likely rapid movement if it does develop. Finally, tan barbs are 0-3 km shear values, in excess of 30 kt, which again is good for wind producing MCSs. Conditions as they stand at 180 hours on the Euro would appear favorable for some wind events. The usual caveats still apply of course, as these are mesoscale processes they are highly changeable. But strictly on an overviews, you would think with that kind of heat and humidity that the northern periphery of the high will see some big complexes. thanks for posting the image sir, It's nice seeing all the overlays on one image. Just looking at the CAPE loop on accuwx pro, its pretty insane the amount of instability being shown day after day up in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 thanks for posting the image sir, It's nice seeing all the overlays on one image. Just looking at the CAPE loop on accuwx pro, its pretty insane the amount of instability being shown day after day up in that area. I can already foresee the future here. I fly to Iowa, bake under oppressive heat and humidity, while a ridge roller slams northern New England (and I would be scheduled for midnights if not for this vacation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I can already foresee the future here. I fly to Iowa, bake under oppressive heat and humidity, while a ridge roller slams northern New England (and I would be scheduled for midnights if not for this vacation). hopefully we can get a few southeastward moving complexes around here this coming weekend/next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Crossing my fingers up here in southern Manitoba for some MCS action, too. Looks like I'll be very close to the top of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 hopefully we can get a few southeastward moving complexes around here this coming weekend/next week. An obvious factor that the models have no hope of resolving is the previous day's OFB. Much like today the derecho lays out a boundary to the south that fires the storms the next day. Maybe one will be able to beat the heat back far enough south to bring I-80 into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 An obvious factor that the models have no hope of resolving is the previous day's OFB. Much like today the derecho lays out a boundary to the south that fires the storms the next day. Maybe one will be able to beat the heat back far enough south to bring I-80 into play. Yeah this is part of the reason why I think my area is certainly in play for some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Saskatchewan TORNADO WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 6:17 PM CST TUESDAY 12 JULY 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= R.M. OF VANSCOY INCLUDING DELISLE ASQUITH AND VANSCOY =NEW= R.M. OF MONTROSE INCLUDING DONOVAN AND SWANSON R.M. OF PERDUE INCLUDING PERDUE AND KINLEY R.M. OF HARRIS INCLUDING HARRIS AND TESSIER. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AS OF 6:16 PM CST, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO LOCATED 10 KILOMETRES NORTH OF HARRIS HEADING EAST AT 30 KM/H. IN ADDITION, IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS STORM IS PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED OR LARGER HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Thought you all might like to see this--- "This photo shows the lightning damage to the WYSO antenna and the fiberglass casing that covers it. The antenna bay is 405 above the ground, attached to the WYSO tower on Clifton Road south of Yellow Springs. Photo taken by Jeremiah Harmeling, a member of the crew that climbed the tower to assess the damage on Tuesday, July 12." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 http://stormchasermovies.com/shelf-cloud-timelapse/ Just a few videos of the derecho coming east off lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 All the models show this ridge lasting for a pretty darn long time... -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 If anyone has access to the Euro instability values...look the CAPE forecast and checkout the values being printed out from friday to next weds in the northern plains to the upper miss valley. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see another textbook derecho event diving southeast at somepoint during that timeframe. Because of that observation, I am going ahead and starting a fresh July 15-20 severe weather thread for the possible upcoming threat next week--which would include the latest Day 3 from the SPC. But we can still use this one for any events today and tomorrow (plus further discussion on the Chicago storms, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 like two targets for tomorrow....ABR and eastern MT, say around Miles City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 yeah i guess i should have been more specific, I'm talking straight line, convective winds without any topographic enhancement. I think there were thunderstorm winds of 150 mph winds in Virginia many years ago. 5/31/98 also had extreme winds topping out in the 130-140 mph range. Not really sure how extensive the record keeping is, but suffice to say anytime you get into the 120+ range, that is mighty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Stumbled upon this and thought it was pretty great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I beat the game... Also, wouldn't be surprised to see some things go up in South Dakota today. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 142055Z - 142300Z A WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. GIVEN LINGERING INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...TIMING OF STORM INITIATION REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. BUT A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT OF WYOMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY EVENING...STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED...AND LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG. AT THE PRESENT TIME...GUIDANCE APPEARS SUGGESTIVE THAT VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO 15/00Z NEAR THE MOBRIDGE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTION NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OFF/EAST NORTHEAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS BEING AIDED BY AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT THAT COULD SUPPORT STORMS WEST OF MOBRIDGE PRIOR TO 15/00Z. REGARDLESS...ONCE STORMS FORM...AND BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING...VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR A 40-50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...BEFORE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BECOME MORE PROMINENT WITH AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. ..KERR.. 07/14/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think there were thunderstorm winds of 150 mph winds in Virginia many years ago. 5/31/98 also had extreme winds topping out in the 130-140 mph range. Not really sure how extensive the record keeping is, but suffice to say anytime you get into the 120+ range, that is mighty impressive. I don't know any specifics of Virginia, but one for the rare file the March 1993 Superstorm produced a serial derecho through the Gulf of Mexico. The Institute for Meteorology of Cuba surveyed and estimated winds of up to 130 mph in and around Havana. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/papers/Alfonso_1996.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Des Moines' NWS did a very nice write up about the July 11th Derecho as it exploded in Iowa along with some great reflectivy/velocity loops http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dmx/?n=july2011derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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