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July 5th and beyond Severe Weather thread


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130+, that's just so crazy, I had no idea straight line winds without any weird topographic enhancement or something could get that high, so wicked.

This was really a case where you had classic conditions for a strong cold pool that was balanced by low level shear (>25 kt). The process of advecting convective cells rearward in the system develops the rear inflow jet (RIJ), which can be enhanced by the development of bookend vorticies. We know this was occurring not only due to the wind speeds observed but the development of a nice rear inflow notch on radar (the relatively weak echo region behind the bow). The longer the RIJ stays elevated the more rapidly it descends near the updraft and the stronger the wind speeds due to buoyancy and dynamic effects. That's how you can have 50 kt mid level winds turn into 100 kt surface winds. Similar in a sense to how dynamics drive RFD winds to over 100 mph.

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This was really a case where you had classic conditions for a strong cold pool that was balanced by low level shear (>25 kt). The process of advecting convective cells rearward in the system develops the rear inflow jet (RIJ), which can be enhanced by the development of bookend vorticies. We know this was occurring not only due to the wind speeds observed but the development of a nice rear inflow notch on radar (the relatively weak echo region behind the bow). The longer the RIJ stays elevated the more rapidly it descends near the updraft and the stronger the wind speeds due to buoyancy and dynamic effects. That's how you can have 50 kt mid level winds turn into 100 kt surface winds. Similar in a sense to how dynamics drive RFD winds to over 100 mph.

Thanks for the info and sorry you weren't still in the area.

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Thanks for the info and sorry you weren't still in the area.

You're telling me, I arrived just after July 2008 and left just before July 2011. :axe:

Environment looking pretty juicy again for the southeastern DVN CWA and for eastern EAX and LSX. Nice supercell (likely producing significant hail (70 dBZ to over 35 kft)) is tornado warned near Kirksville. It will probably grow upscale into an MCS with time, as conditions look pretty good for wind again.

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Nice supercell (likely producing significant hail (70 dBZ to over 35 kft)) is tornado warned near Kirksville. It will probably grow upscale into an MCS with time, as conditions look pretty good for wind again.

2" hail reported by the public in Novinger, with a 60 mph gust from IRK.

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I think the strongest straight line winds I ever witnessed was right around 75mph.

The strongest one I was ever caught in was a 67mph gust during a thunderstorm about 20 years ago.... As to how I got caught outside in it, well, there's a "stupid ex-wife" story behind it..

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If anyone has access to the Euro instability values...look the CAPE forecast and checkout the values being printed out from friday to next weds in the northern plains to the upper miss valley. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see another textbook derecho event diving southeast at somepoint during that timeframe.

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That is the ECMWF valid at 00z on the 20th (so Tuesday evening). The shaded is MUCAPE (>4000 is white), and maximum values are pushing 5000 J/kg. The thin black lines with numbers is precip (to give an idea of expected convection) and as one might guess the Euro is developing something north of the strongest instability and cap. Black barbs are 850 mb winds, with a decent 30 kt LLJ already at 00z. Light blue barbs are roughly 0-2 km storm relative winds, and you can see values near the convection in excess of 35 kt, indicating the potential to balance the motion of the cold pool as well as its likely rapid movement if it does develop. Finally, tan barbs are 0-3 km shear values, in excess of 30 kt, which again is good for wind producing MCSs.

Conditions as they stand at 180 hours on the Euro would appear favorable for some wind events. The usual caveats still apply of course, as these are mesoscale processes they are highly changeable. But strictly on an overviews, you would think with that kind of heat and humidity that the northern periphery of the high will see some big complexes.

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That is the ECMWF valid at 00z on the 20th (so Tuesday evening). The shaded is MUCAPE (>4000 is white), and maximum values are pushing 5000 J/kg. The thin black lines with numbers is precip (to give an idea of expected convection) and as one might guess the Euro is developing something north of the strongest instability and cap. Black barbs are 850 mb winds, with a decent 30 kt LLJ already at 00z. Light blue barbs are roughly 0-2 km storm relative winds, and you can see values near the convection in excess of 35 kt, indicating the potential to balance the motion of the cold pool as well as its likely rapid movement if it does develop. Finally, tan barbs are 0-3 km shear values, in excess of 30 kt, which again is good for wind producing MCSs.

Conditions as they stand at 180 hours on the Euro would appear favorable for some wind events. The usual caveats still apply of course, as these are mesoscale processes they are highly changeable. But strictly on an overviews, you would think with that kind of heat and humidity that the northern periphery of the high will see some big complexes.

I'd love to nudge that instability axis a touch East more, for personal storm reasons. :P

Although I think in this pattern MN/N WI/ MI should do well with storm complex potentials.

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I'd love to nudge that instability axis a touch East more, for personal storm reasons. :P

Although I think in this pattern MN/N WI/ MI should do well with storm complex potentials.

Well I will be flying back to Iowa for a little vacation and county fair action next Wednesday, so I'm rooting for the ridge to get beaten back a bit. Definitely not rooting for the 95+/80 stuff.

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Well I will be flying back to Iowa for a little vacation and county fair action next Wednesday, so I'm rooting for the ridge to get beaten back a bit. Definitely not rooting for the 95+/80 stuff.

Yeah especially if its sunny, then that sun just beats you into submission.

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That is the ECMWF valid at 00z on the 20th (so Tuesday evening). The shaded is MUCAPE (>4000 is white), and maximum values are pushing 5000 J/kg. The thin black lines with numbers is precip (to give an idea of expected convection) and as one might guess the Euro is developing something north of the strongest instability and cap. Black barbs are 850 mb winds, with a decent 30 kt LLJ already at 00z. Light blue barbs are roughly 0-2 km storm relative winds, and you can see values near the convection in excess of 35 kt, indicating the potential to balance the motion of the cold pool as well as its likely rapid movement if it does develop. Finally, tan barbs are 0-3 km shear values, in excess of 30 kt, which again is good for wind producing MCSs.

Conditions as they stand at 180 hours on the Euro would appear favorable for some wind events. The usual caveats still apply of course, as these are mesoscale processes they are highly changeable. But strictly on an overviews, you would think with that kind of heat and humidity that the northern periphery of the high will see some big complexes.

That is just ugly....

180 hours out...yeah it can change. Better? Worse? going to keep an eye on this one. Supposed to be a hot weekend.....

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I really don't miss those 80 dewpoints, but that's why they make beer cold.

Just a monster ridge the Euro builds into the heart of the country. Nearly 600 dm at 500.

What is the record 500 height for DVN area, I want to say DTX's is something like 597dm.

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What is the record 500 height for DVN area, I want to say DTX's is something like 597dm.

That's a good question. I don't know it off the top of my head, but it might be buried in the records at the office. I would imagine it has to be over 600 dm, due to their proximity to the ridge axis.

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Tor warning for this cell

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO

444 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

NORTHWESTERN MACOUPIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 442 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD...AND MOVING

SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WHITE HALL...ROODHOUSE...CARROLLTON...ATHENSVILLE...GREENFIELD...

MILTON...MONTEZUMA...BEDFORD...PEARL...BEECREEK...HILLVIEW...

PATTERSON...HAYPRESS...WALKERSVILLE...BARROW...BELLTOWN...BERDAN...

WRIGHTS AND SCOTTVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

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That's a good question. I don't know it off the top of my head, but it might be buried in the records at the office. I would imagine it has to be over 600 dm, due to their proximity to the ridge axis.

Yeah I would imagine something like 602-604dm would probably be close to it.

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Off the top of my head I know Washington, IA (AWG) recorded a 123 mph gust in the June 1998 derecho.

IIRC right around that same time (June '98) there was an event in Wisconsin east of Lacrosse where some airforce base measured winds over 125mph. Don't quote me on that, but I think it was something like that. I'll have to look it up when I get back, gotta head out for the evening.

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IIRC right around that same time (June '98) there was an event in Wisconsin east of Lacrosse where some airforce base measured winds over 125mph. Don't quote me on that, but I think it was something like that. I'll have to look it up when I get back, gotta head out for the evening.

Nevermind I looked it up quick. It was only 100mph. I could have swore I read somewhere that some Air Force base recorded a gust well over 100mph.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/events/june27case.php

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