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July 5th and beyond Severe Weather thread


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Wondering if that bow will pass east/ne and leave me on the southern edge here in Michiana as it crosses LM or if there will be a more se push. Lots of scattered convection behind the bow in southern IA moving ne. That is one strong heat ridge/theta axis.

The bowing segment along the WI/IL border looks like it's trying to push NE or at least ENE, slightly elongating the complex. I hope it doesn't break apart the bow into smaller segments.

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Wondering if that bow will pass east/ne and leave me on the southern edge here in Michiana as it crosses LM or if there will be a more se push. Lots of scattered convection behind the bow in southern IA moving ne. That is one strong heat ridge/theta axis.

Looks like it took a more east turn as opposed to ENE the last couple frames, the longer it survives, the better chances of a south turn.

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from new MD

1. BOW ECHO STRADDLING IL/WI BORDER...TURNING EWD AND MOVING ABOUT

55-60 KT. SIGNIFICANT TSTM-WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. BASED ON SEVERAL

MEASURED-SVR WINDS ALREADY RECORDED...PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS

EVIDENT IN VELOCITY DISPLAYS AND AIR MASS IN PROJECTED PATH...MCS IS

LIKELY DERECHO-PRODUCER EWD AT LEAST TO LAKEFRONT BETWEEN

CHI-MKE...PERHAPS FARTHER DOWNSHEAR ACROSS MICHIANA REGION. THIS

COMPLEX WILL ENCOUNTER AND LIFT FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL

AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER/WI

MCS...FORCING AIR WITH ABOUT 20 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO AND 2-2.25

INCH PW ALOFT TO REALIZE MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/KG. WELL-DEVELOPED

REAR-INFLOW JET WAS EVIDENT WITH THIS COMPLEX AT DBQ...WHERE 64-KT

FLOW WAS CLOCKED OVER 20 MIN AFTER INITIAL WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED

WITH GUST FRONT.

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56MPH gust at Freeport.

METAR KFEP 111155Z AUTO 25019G49KT 1 3/4SM +TSRA BKN006 OVC013 22/20 A2995 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0020

Looks like they took a pretty direct hit, so that isn't all that bad. Will be interesting to see what comes out of RFD, looks like best shear is displaced enough north to be keeping things in check.

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Looks like they took a pretty direct hit, so that isn't all that bad. Will be interesting to see what comes out of RFD, looks like best shear is displaced enough north to be keeping things in check.

Last ob from RFD was a 50MPH gust.

SPECI KRFD 111209Z 28028G43KT 2 1/2SM R01/5000VP6000FT +RA SQ BKN010 BKN018 OVC065 24/20 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 26043/1206 RAB05 P0000

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My parents in Center Point, IA just called on a cell - no power, tree down on house, large shed moved 30 feet off its foundation. Local TV reporting roof off school in Urbana and showing all sorts of homes damaged or even destroyed. My Dad sounded spooked, and that doesn't happen easily. Had to be winds 80MPH+. I'm heading down in a few minutes to help clean up. KCRG TV just showed a brick building in Vinton with what looked to be the top floor destroyed.

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Last ob from RFD was a 50MPH gust.

SPECI KRFD 111209Z 28028G43KT 2 1/2SM R01/5000VP6000FT +RA SQ BKN010 BKN018 OVC065 24/20 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 26043/1206 RAB05 P0000

Yeah, from what i'm seeing the line, at least across Illinois, isn't all that impressive.

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My parents in Center Point, IA just called on a cell - no power, tree down on house, large shed moved 30 feet off its foundation. Local TV reporting roof off school in Urbana and showing all sorts of homes damaged or even destroyed. My Dad sounded spooked, and that doesn't happen easily. Had to be winds 80MPH+. I'm heading down in a few minutes to help clean up.

Yeah, the two counties west of Cedar Rapids and the northern part of CR's county took the brunt as the line really bowed there. There are a lot of damage reports from that area.

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The slightly better DBZs seem to be across the southern row of counties in Wisconsin, but I'm not sure which part of the line has the worst damaging winds.

Decent comma head feature forming south of Madison, woudn't be shocked to see the best winds for the time being with or just behind that feature.

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from new MD

Impressive obs! This looks to be what SPC was talking about in their MCD, as the rear-inflow jet was sampled here.

KDBQ 111122Z 33034G48KT 2 1/2SM +TSRA BR OVC015 21/21 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 31064/1109 WSHFT 1103 VIS 1 1/4V4 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB1055 P0042 $

KDBQ 111117Z 33034G64KT 1SM +TSRA BR BKN013 OVC025 21/21 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 31064/1109 WSHFT 1103 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB1055 P0039 RVRNO $

KDBQ 111110Z 31041G64KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR SQ BKN009 BKN025 OVC100 21/21 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 31064/1109 WSHFT 1049 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB1055 P0030 RVRNO $

KDBQ 111107Z 27038G55KT 1 1/4SM +TSRA BR SCT009 BKN025 BKN037 21/21 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 28055/1107 WSHFT 1049 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB1055 P0027 $

KDBQ 111103Z 26027G52KT 3/4SM +TSRA BR SCT011 BKN025 BKN037 21/21 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 28052/1054 WSHFT 1049 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB1055 PRESRR P0020 RVRNO $

KDBQ 111055Z 27038G52KT 3/4SM R36/1400VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ SCT015 SCT027 BKN048 23/23 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 28052/1054 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB55 P0000 $

KDBQ 111053Z 28029G49KT 1 1/2SM R36/3500VP6000FT VCTS BR FEW009 SCT024 BKN100 25/25 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 28049/1053 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSB42RAB35E47 PRESRR SLP115 P0003 T02500250 $

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6z NAM has SBCAPE over 8000 J/kg here later. Nice fat CAPE profile but I guess it has to be to get a value that high.

mod risk coming your way

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN IL...SRN LOWER MI...INDIANA...OH...SRN

LM...WRN LE...EXTREME NRN KY.

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 111250Z - 111345Z

13Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE UPGRADED TSTM WIND PROBABILITIES

SUPPORTING CATEGORICAL MDT RISK ROUGHLY OVER OUTLINED REGION...GIVEN

EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION/MOISTENING OF AIR MASS TODAY AND POTENTIAL

FOR ONE OR MORE DAMAGING WIND-PRODUCING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEMS. REF 13Z SVR OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS.

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