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July 5th and beyond Severe Weather thread


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Yep, it looks like the MCS forming in se ND right now will be the one to watch overnight as it swings se to impact MN, IA, WI and northern IL perhaps by dawn. Would be real surprised if areas closer to Chi town get anything significant around 00Z from the MCV but who knows? Weather always surprises me. We could actually use some rain here in Michiana.

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Did SPC trim the eastern part of the slight risk because they don't think the MCS will be able to maintain into Eastern Wisconsin and the Chicago area, or because it will happen too late at night or early tomorrow morning to be considered today's severe weather risk?

The outlook goes through 12z, so they don't expect it to remain severe when/if it reaches southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois. The part of the risk that got cut was because the MCV and associated mid-level winds failed to ignite severe convection.

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I think we're going to have a very interesting overnight in the Upper MS river valley.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

756 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNC041-121-145-153-110145-

/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-110711T0145Z/

DOUGLAS MN-POPE MN-STEARNS MN-TODD MN-

756 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN

TODD...WESTERN STEARNS...POPE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM

CDT...

AT 752 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CARLOS TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST

OF BENSON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LONG PRAIRIE...ROSE CITY...OSAKIS...SEDAN...CLOTHO...BROWERVILLE...

LITTLE SAUK...SAUK CENTRE...BELGRADE...ELROSA...MEIRE GROVE...

GEORGEVILLE...MELROSE...GREY EAGLE AND NORTH SHORE

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I think it was LSX that mentioned the severity of the storms throughout the night would be contigent on the MCS developing a cold pool, and the main way that would be hindered is if convection further south robbed the system of moisture. Given that the development in Nebraska is well west, I'm assuming moisture's ample for this MCS.

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Widespread wind damage reported across Pope and Douglas counties....and then this update...

MNC041-121-145-153-110145-

/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-110711T0145Z/

DOUGLAS MN-POPE MN-STEARNS MN-TODD MN-

822 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN

TODD...WESTERN STEARNS...POPE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM

CDT...

AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. THESE STORMS

WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CLOTHO TO SUNBURG...MOVING

EAST AT 60 MPH.

THE SEVERE WINDS MAY LINGER WELL AFTER THE INITIAL GUST MOVES

THROUGH.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

803 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0747 PM TSTM WND GST ALEXANDRIA 45.87N 95.38W

07/10/2011 M79 MPH DOUGLAS MN MESONET

MNDOT I-94 AND MN HWY 29 MILE POST 46

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

849 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

MNC067-093-110200-

/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-110711T0200Z/

KANDIYOHI MN-MEEKER MN-

849 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN MEEKER AND

EAST CENTRAL KANDIYOHI COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 843 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SPICER...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF WILLMAR...

MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS TORNADO NORTHWEST OF GROVE CITY AT 844 PM

CDT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN KANDIYOHI AND NORTHWESTERN

MEEKER COUNTIES.

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Yup, it was a couplet.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

852 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

NORTHWESTERN RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MINNESOTA FALLS. RADAR SHOWED THE TORNADIC STORM MOVING EAST AT 40

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

OLIVIA...

MINNESOTA FALLS...

SACRED HEART...

RENVILLE...

DANUBE...

BIRD ISLAND...

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That is some powerful straight line wind...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

842 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0810 PM TSTM WND GST SAUK CENTRE 45.74N 94.96W

07/10/2011 E0 MPH STEARNS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED TIME...ENHANCED UNIDIRECTIONAL DAMAGE LARGE

GRAIN EQUIPMENT TRAILERS FLIPPED.

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Last night's NSSL WRF caught the Minnesota complex pretty nicely, although it was off on the timing. Also doesn't show the storms blowing up in Nebraska currently.

rflslp23.png

Did you see the new RUC? It has CAPE over 5000 in your area...at 9 AM. Even chopping some off, that is impressive.

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Did you see the new RUC? It has CAPE over 5000 in your area...at 9 AM. Even chopping some off, that is impressive.

Yeah that's pretty impressive. Verbatim it has us at 87/82 at 9am lol. Looks very doubtful though as we'll likely be shrouded in cloud cover from all the MCS activity that's currently ongoing to the west and northwest.

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My vantage pro recorded a 68 mph gust with the storm...some tree branches & limbs down in my yard & power went out for about an hour. Had a couple tornado warnings around the area & several reports of power outages & tree/small building damage...2nd time in 9 days this has happend in the same general area.

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My vantage pro recorded a 68 mph gust with the storm...some tree branches & limbs down in my yard & power went out for about an hour. Had a couple tornado warnings around the area & several reports of power outages & tree/small building damage...2nd time in 9 days this has happend in the same general area.

Call that in to the MPX office! Those reports help out a ton. Tell them your exact location and also that it was measured not estimated.You can call them now too--never a bad time to call.

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Today might be one of those RUC 9000-10000 SBCAPE days.  I'm betting central IL if happens lol.  Question is whether they will be too capped.

I am willing to bet with forecasted 25-27c air moving overhead that they should be capped, which is why I would actually disagree with the 30% wind area SPC is showing, I believe its too far South, move that axis north about 100 miles. The 4km SPC-WRF would also agree that it is too far South.

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Call that in to the MPX office! Those reports help out a ton. Tell them your exact location and also that it was measured not estimated.You can call them now too--never a bad time to call.

I really wanted to report an estimated wind speed but it'd be just a guess so i didn't call in to fgf. I was on the supercell in Richland County, ND I was on it before it got rain wrapped and impossible to chase then it ran me over and dominated the area. I had to move my car into the wind because i felt my back end lift up a couple times.

Before it got rain wrapped but right as it got outflow dominant and the RFD surged out in front

http://www.youtube.c...u/0/Ck5j_61B4OA

then I tried to get east and this thing ate me up winds were at times stronger than this but midway through I had the brilliant idea of actually recording it arrowheadsmiley.png]

http://www.youtube.c...u/1/UM79QK3xits

Edit: if you get bored just go to 45 seconds in pretty crazy wind, this was a NW wind so it was wrapping into the circulation as the storm passed just south east of me

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don't think I've ever seen the amount of instability still out there at 2am...MLCAPE of 5000 and MUCAPE of 6000 j/kg in southeast IA/western IL.

82/81 at OXV (southeast of DSM)

I have once, and it came with a monster MCS crossing Lake Michigan into Michigan.

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