Trent Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The new 30 year normals were released today. The new normal snowfall here in Cleveland rose to 68.1" from 63.1" ... a pretty big jump. New Yearly Avg Temp and increase over past normals: Max: 59.6 +1.4 Avg: 51.4 +1.7 Min: 43.3 +2.1 Our January high rose from 32.6 to 34.4 and our January low rose from 18.8 to 21.7! So the new January average is a whopping 2.4 degrees warmer now!!! There's so so much data to sift through, but discuss away! directory: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/products/ Cleveland: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/products/station/USW00014820.normals.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 This might make below average temps a little more frequent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 This might make below average temps a little more frequent. The bar has definitely been raised for snowfall. Also, with such big jumps in wintertime temperatures it makes it hard to compare by departures anymore. e.g last winter could have been 2 degrees above normal, but that same winter would now be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The new 30 year normals were released today. The new normal snowfall here in Cleveland rose to 68.1" from 63.1" ... a pretty big jump. New Yearly Avg Temp and increase over past normals: Max: 59.6 +1.4 Avg: 51.4 +1.7 Min: 43.3 +2.1 Our January high rose from 32.6 to 34.4 and our January low rose from 18.8 to 21.7! So the new January average is a whopping 2.4 degrees warmer now!!! There's so so much data to sift through, but discuss away! directory: http://www1.ncdc.noa...-2010/products/ Cleveland: http://www1.ncdc.noa...820.normals.txt Yeah, I was just going through this. These new numbers seem ridiculously high -- even with global warming, it shouldn't be this high. Some of the new summer "normals" are within 2 degrees of the top ten warmest on record. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 This might make below average temps a little more frequent. Y'think? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Max temp change by month January +1.8 February +1.7 March +0.5 April +1.8 May +0.9 June +1.2 July +1.2 August +1.6 September +1.6 October +1.5 November +2.1 December +0.9 Min temp change by month January +2.9 February +2.6 March +1.3 April +1.8 May +1.8 June +2.1 July +2.0 August +1.9 September +1.7 October +1.7 November +2.0 December +1.5 Mean temp change by month January +2.3 February +2.1 March +0.9 April +2.2 May +1.3 June +1.7 July +1.6 August +1.8 September +1.7 October +1.6 November +1.9 December +1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Yeah, I was just going through this. These new numbers seem ridiculously high -- even with global warming, it shouldn't be this high. Some of the new summer "normals" are within 2 degrees of the top ten warmest on record. WTF? And a "normal" year in Cleveland is now apparently just 1.1 degrees from the top ten warmest year since 1871. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 And thanks to these idiots i get to contact Grand Rapids WFO, The city of Battle Creek and as well the local paper to find out why KBTL/Battle Creek is not listed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 More data from CLE's CWA -- New Annual Temps for Each Station New CLE 59.6/43.3/51.4 YNG 58.4/39.8/49.1 TOL 60.0/40.7/50.3 MFD 58.8/40.3/49.5 CAK 58.9/40.9/49.9 Old CLE 58.2/41.2/49.7 YNG 58.2/38.8/48.5 TOL 58.9/40.0/49.5 MFD 58.6/38.9/48.8 CAK 58.9/40.0/49.5 Change CLE +1.4/+2.1/+1.7 YNG +0.2/+1.0/+0.6 TOL +1.1/+0.7/+0.8 MFD +0.2/+1.4/+0.7 CAK +0.0/+0.9/+0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Yeah, I was just going through this. These new numbers seem ridiculously high -- even with global warming, it shouldn't be this high. Some of the new summer "normals" are within 2 degrees of the top ten warmest on record. WTF? I'm not sure that's so amazing, really. Think about it: summer has a much smaller temperature spread than winter. The warmest/coolest months won't stray nearly as far from average. For example, here in Denver, only 2.4 degrees separates the average August from a top 10 warmest August, and that's going by the old 1971-2000 normals. The U.S. as a whole saw about .5F warming going from 1971-2000 to 1981-2010 averages, so Cleveland has obviously seen a warmer period than most over that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 This might make below average temps a little more frequent. Especially now that we have switched to a -PDO, more -NAO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Yeah, I was just going through this. These new numbers seem ridiculously high -- even with global warming, it shouldn't be this high. Some of the new summer "normals" are within 2 degrees of the top ten warmest on record. WTF? Maybe the elimination of the unusually cold 1970s from the averages helped raised the normals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Maybe the elimination of the unusually cold 1970s from the averages helped raised the normals? It did. Now you have no cold '70s but warm '90s and early '00s. No balance. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Odd. It looks like DTW lost 1.3" from the new snowfall normals. If I'm reading this right, 42.7" is the new seasonal snowfall average?!? http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/normals/1981-2010/products/station/USW00094847.normals.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I'm not shocked really. I did a paper my sophomore year in high school on Northern Ohio and the Great Lakes and how temps have changed...it's even noticeable up here in Northern Michigan. Bottomline is the climate is becoming more mild around the Great Lakes area and has been since 1803 when Ohio became a state. Thewxman is right though, the bitter 70s are gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 MKE is way warmer in the winter. If I'm reading this right we lost about 6 inches per year of snow and the average low in January is up to 16F now at its coldest. Love it. Let's get these warm and snowless winters back. The last few winters have been torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Odd. It looks like DTW lost 1.3" from the new snowfall normals. If I'm reading this right, 42.7" is the new seasonal snowfall average?!? http://www1.ncdc.noa...847.normals.txt Well, when I add the average snowfall from the 1980s (45.2"), 1990s (37.2") and 2000s (45.3"), I get 42.6", so thats actually quite close. HOWEVER, when I replace the 2000s with the 1970s (45.6") the average is 42.7", not the 44" that was used. I always knew some quality control went into the process, but Im not sure how or what? A few low snow winters of the early 2000s, not to mention very lowball measuring in the 2003-05 period, no doubt had a role too. But if the trend of recent winters continues (average of the past 4 winters is 63", average of past 10 winters, even with the below avg years of '01-02, '03-04, '05-06, '06-07, is still 50"), averages will surely go up to never-before-seen levels the next decadal cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Odd. It looks like DTW lost 1.3" from the new snowfall normals. If I'm reading this right, 42.7" is the new seasonal snowfall average?!? http://www1.ncdc.noa...847.normals.txt The biggest culprit there is probably the 37" from the 90s. It would have had to been 45" also to bring up the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 6, 2011 Author Share Posted July 6, 2011 The 30 year average is kind of arbitrary, no? What makes a seasonal snowfall in 1981 more relevant than one in 1978? Also, redoing the averages every even 10 years is kind of arbitrary too. A 1977-2007 average could have a much different number than say 1974-2004 or 1980-2010. I also find it absurd that with such dramatic rises in the new normals for temperatures that a "normal" winter in 2011 is now a "below normal" winter in 2012. An "above normal" winter in 2010 could now be a "normal" winter in 2012. Warming, in a sense, is normal. If it cools to a level that was normal for 1970-2000, well that's just below normal now. Explain that to the public without getting all political about global warming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The 30 year average is kind of arbitrary, no? What makes a seasonal snowfall in 1981 more relevant than one in 1978? Also, redoing the averages every even 10 years is kind of arbitrary too. A 1977-2007 average could have a much different number than say 1974-2004 or 1980-2010. I also find it absurd that with such dramatic rises in the new normals for temperatures that a "normal" winter in 2011 is now a "below normal" winter in 2012. An "above normal" winter in 2010 could now be a "normal" winter in 2012. Warming, in a sense, is normal. If it cools to a level that was normal for 1970-2000, well that's just below normal now. Explain that to the public without getting all political about global warming! You have to have a cutoff somewhere. It's not perfect but it's an attempt to catch the "recent" trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ORD Annual Snowfall 1971-00: 38.0" 1981-10: 36.7" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00......11.3....8.3....6.0....1.6....0.3....1.8.....8.7 1981-10......10.8....9.1....5.6....1.2....0.3....1.2.....8.5 MDW Annual snowfall 1971-00: 43.1" 1981-10: 37.1" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00......12.9....10.3..6.0....1.4....0.1....2.3.....10.1 1981-10......11.5....9.1....5.4....1.0....0.1....1.3.....8.7 IND Annual Snowfall 1971-00: 26.9" 1981-10: 25.9" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00.......9.3.....6.1....3.0....0.4....0.4....1.3.....6.4 1981-10.......8.6.....6.5....2.6....0.2....0.4....0.7.....6.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 ORD Annual Snowfall 1971-00: 38.0" 1981-10: 36.7" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00......11.3....8.3....6.0....1.6....0.3....1.8.....8.7 1981-10......10.8....9.1....5.6....1.2....0.3....1.2.....8.5 MDW Annual snowfall 1971-00: 43.1" 1981-10: 37.1" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00......12.9....10.3..6.0....1.4....0.1....2.3.....10.1 1981-10......11.5....9.1....5.4....1.0....0.1....1.3.....8.7 IND Annual Snowfall 1971-00: 26.9" 1981-10: 25.9" Monthly breakdown Normals........Jan....Feb....Mar....Apr....Oct....Nov....Dec 1971-00.......9.3.....6.1....3.0....0.4....0.4....1.3.....6.4 1981-10.......8.6.....6.5....2.6....0.2....0.4....0.7.....6.9 Ouch, MDW taking it on the chin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Ouch, MDW taking it on the chin. Well, 89.7" and 82.3" come off the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Well, 89.7" and 82.3" come off the books. It looks like the non-LES sties in the midwest have generally declined for snow on the new normals. The opposite is true for New England. The 2000s were a very snowy decade...snowier than the 1970s so the averages go up. The 1970s weren't all that great even though they had some pretty good years in there. It was kind of an overrated decade here. It was obviously much more prolific in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 It looks like the non-LES sties in the midwest have generally declined for snow on the new normals. The opposite is true for New England. The 2000s were a very snowy decade...snowier than the 1970s so the averages go up. The 1970s weren't all that great even though they had some pretty good years in there. It was kind of an overrated decade here. It was obviously much more prolific in the midwest. Yeah the 70's as a whole were very good in the Midwest. Of course the late 2000's (since 2007) have had a nice bounce back after some real clunkers in the late 80's and 90's. I guess the numbers could have been worse if not for the recent good run. Seasonal amounts for ORD since 80-81. There was certainly a good winter occasionally, but as a whole there's a lot bad ones below. Good times have returned though, starting with 07-08. 1980-1981: 35.0 1981-1982: 59.3 1982-1983: 26.6 1983-1984: 49.0 1984-1985: 39.1 1985-1986: 29.0 1986-1987: 26.2 1987-1988: 42.6 1988-1989: 24.5 1989-1990: 33.8 1990-1991: 36.7 1991-1992: 28.4 1992-1993: 46.9 1993-1994: 41.8 1994-1995: 24.1 1995-1996: 23.9 1996-1997: 40.6 1997-1998: 29.6 1998-1999: 50.9 1999-2000: 30.3 2000-2001: 39.2 2001-2002: 31.1 2002-2003: 28.6 2003-2004: 24.8 2004-2005: 39.4 2005-2006: 26.0 2006-2007: 35.6 2007-2008: 60.3 2008-2009: 52.7 2009-2010: 54.2 2010-2011: 57.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 It looks like the non-LES sties in the midwest have generally declined for snow on the new normals. The opposite is true for New England. The 2000s were a very snowy decade...snowier than the 1970s so the averages go up. The 1970s weren't all that great even though they had some pretty good years in there. It was kind of an overrated decade here. It was obviously much more prolific in the midwest. What is the new avg for BOS? Its really not a surprise. The 1970s were the benchmark decade for much of the midwest, actually Detroit is one of the few places that had near idential snowfall in the 1970s/2000s, the 1970s just SLIGHTLY higher, whereas in some midwest cities the 1970s killed the 2000s. As I posted above, the average for DTW in the 1970s was 45.6" and the 2000s was 45.3", so I dont know why the difference really, the new 42.7" normal makes sense by my figures, but then again it shouldve been about that in the 1971-2000 normals as well, not the quality controlled 44.0". Actually, the 2000s saw 4 winters of 60"+ at DTW while the 1970s saw only 2 such winters. Aside from a few infamous blizzards and overall snowfall totals, the brutal cold that accompanied many 1970s winters are what really makes that THE decade of winter lore in the midwest. Looking ahead... Average snowfall past 4 winters: ORD: 56.3" (1981-2010 avg 36.7") DTW: 62.6" (1981-2010 avg 42.7") While 4 years isnt a big sample size, it is still significant to have accumulated about 80 inches above normal for both Chicago/Detroit in just 4 years time. Its too early to tell, obviously, what the coming years would bring, but I would bet money that snowfall averages would increase, possibly dramatically for some, for the 1991-2020 normals. The 1970s (45.6") 1980s (45.2") and 2000s (45.3") were remarkably similar for DTW, but for many midwest cities, the 1970s were well above a longterm average while the 1980s were not nearly impressive. Region-wide above to well above-normal snowfall since the mid-2000s certainly will leave its mark the next averages cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 The 30 year average is kind of arbitrary, no? What makes a seasonal snowfall in 1981 more relevant than one in 1978? Also, redoing the averages every even 10 years is kind of arbitrary too. A 1977-2007 average could have a much different number than say 1974-2004 or 1980-2010. I also find it absurd that with such dramatic rises in the new normals for temperatures that a "normal" winter in 2011 is now a "below normal" winter in 2012. An "above normal" winter in 2010 could now be a "normal" winter in 2012. Warming, in a sense, is normal. If it cools to a level that was normal for 1970-2000, well that's just below normal now. Explain that to the public without getting all political about global warming! Yeah, regardless of what Eltacoman says, these new figures are absurd (at least for CLE). It would have to be 1.7 degrees cooler than normal just to be what was considered normal now (and 1961-1990 normals were even a bit lower than 1971-2000 normals), yet it would only have to be 1.1 degrees warmer than normal to be a top ten warmest year since 1871. So, to the average layperson, it sounds like the 1.7 degrees below normal is impressive -- yet that would probably be warmer than 60-70% of all years since 1871. The 1.1 degrees above normal doesn't sound warm at all, until you realize it's around the top 7 or 8% of warmest years! Ridiculous! To be above normal at all, it's going to have to be a complete torch. Should be a lot of below normal years, if this is all just an oscillation as some have said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 What is the new avg for BOS? Its really not a surprise. The 1970s were the benchmark decade for much of the midwest, actually Detroit is one of the few places that had near idential snowfall in the 1970s/2000s, the 1970s just SLIGHTLY higher, whereas in some midwest cities the 1970s killed the 2000s. As I posted above, the average for DTW in the 1970s was 45.6" and the 2000s was 45.3", so I dont know why the difference really, the new 42.7" normal makes sense by my figures, but then again it shouldve been about that in the 1971-2000 normals as well, not the quality controlled 44.0". Actually, the 2000s saw 4 winters of 60"+ at DTW while the 1970s saw only 2 such winters. Aside from a few infamous blizzards and overall snowfall totals, the brutal cold that accompanied many 1970s winters are what really makes that THE decade of winter lore in the midwest. Looking ahead... Average snowfall past 4 winters: ORD: 56.3" (1981-2010 avg 36.7") DTW: 62.6" (1981-2010 avg 42.7") While 4 years isnt a big sample size, it is still significant to have accumulated about 80 inches above normal for both Chicago/Detroit in just 4 years time. Its too early to tell, obviously, what the coming years would bring, but I would bet money that snowfall averages would increase, possibly dramatically for some, for the 1991-2020 normals. The 1970s (45.6") 1980s (45.2") and 2000s (45.3") were remarkably similar for DTW, but for many midwest cities, the 1970s were well above a longterm average while the 1980s were not nearly impressive. Region-wide above to well above-normal snowfall since the mid-2000s certainly will leave its mark the next averages cycle. While the 70s had it's share of massive snowstorms/Blizzards ( 18+ type events ) up this way ( Michigan ) most of the state did not do as well as places just south/se of here etc with seasonal snowfall except right in the Lake belts ( colder winters played a role for sure ) and thus just west of here. Around here atleast the 2000s has blown the 70s out of the water. Heck even the 80s were a tad snowier then the 70s atleast at a few of the climo sites around here including here. 2000s 2000-2001 88.5 2001-2002 88.2 2002-2003 59.6 2003-2004 48.4 2004-2005 81.3 2005-2006 46.2 2006-2007 97.5 2007-2008 93.0 2008-2009 109.6 2009-2010 73.1 Vs 1970s 1970-1971 38.4 1971-1972 52.2 1972-1973 52.9 1973-1974 40.4 1974-1975 56.8 1975-1976 44.1 1976-1977 38.7 1977-1978 61.8 1978-1979 64.4 1979-1980 38.6 Ofcourse though the 70s does have some missing data which has always been a issue here. Still waiting to here back from GRR about KBTL. Still not sure they use 5nw Battle Creek vs KBTL? BTW.. They said they did update that 5 NW but i can't seem to find it? Anyone else that can find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted July 23, 2011 Share Posted July 23, 2011 Managed to find Battle Creek 5nw. They show the new average at 58.1" which is surprising as they do have alot of blank spots ( missing data and thus see 01-02/05-06 etc ) in the data. YES Keep in mind they still add it all up regardless if there is missing data. The old average ( 1970-2001 ) they had was 53.1" and thus a decent increase despite the missing data. Grand Rapids went from 70.2" up to 74.9" Muskegon lost nearly 10" inches and they went from a average of 102.4" down to 93.7" OUCH.. Lansing went from 53.0" down to 51.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 New normals start today. For Indianapolis, here's the new numbers for August versus the old numbers. August (1981-10 - 1971-00 - change) Average high temperature: 84.0º - 83.7º (+0.3º) Average low temperature: 64.4º - 63.3º (+1.1º) Average mean temperature: 74.2º - 73.5º (+0.7º) 90º+ days: 5.0 - 4.7 (+0.3) Total precipitation: 3.13" - 3.82" (-0.69") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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