July Obs.

[buckeyefan1]

Not the first drop again yesterday...*sigh*....CAE still gives me a 50% chance again today....fingers crossed

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THE LINGERING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND HEATING

SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE

AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE

CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE

NORTHWARD. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2

INCHES SUPPORTS POSSIBLE FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE NAM

INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS HEAVY

RAINFALL LOADING MAY SUPPORT NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF

THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GUIDANCE WAS INCONSISTENT WITH THE POP

TODAY WITH THE NAM MOS INDICATING A POP LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. BOTH

THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAYED THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE STRONGER

UPPER-LEVEL LIFT TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE

LIMITED BY THE SLOW STORM MOTION. HOWEVER...STILL LEANED TOWARD

THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE. USED THE

GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

[FoothillsNC]

Not the first drop again yesterday...*sigh*....CAE still gives me a 50% chance again today....fingers crossed

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

THE LINGERING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND HEATING

SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE

AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE

CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HELPING TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE

NORTHWARD. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2

INCHES SUPPORTS POSSIBLE FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE NAM

INDICATES MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY PLUS HEAVY

RAINFALL LOADING MAY SUPPORT NEAR-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF

THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE GUIDANCE WAS INCONSISTENT WITH THE POP

TODAY WITH THE NAM MOS INDICATING A POP LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. BOTH

THE NAM AND GFS DISPLAYED THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THE STRONGER

UPPER-LEVEL LIFT TODAY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD ALSO BE

LIMITED BY THE SLOW STORM MOTION. HOWEVER...STILL LEANED TOWARD

THE HIGHER GUIDANCE POPS BECAUSE OF THE HIGH MOISTURE. USED THE

GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

think today (more like tonight) is your time. We've got the sunny zone for now, helping with instability from Ga right through the heart of the CArolinas, then the incoming strong 5h, lee trough which should help trigger a large mass of storms by 5pm or after. I think it will be a good size event, followed overnight by a stretching out of the rain zone from Ala -Ga-SC roughly I-20. Hope you get it.

[buckeyefan1]

think today (more like tonight) is your time. We've got the sunny zone for now, helping with instability from Ga right through the heart of the CArolinas, then the incoming strong 5h, lee trough which should help trigger a large mass of storms by 5pm or after. I think it will be a good size event, followed overnight by a stretching out of the rain zone from Ala -Ga-SC roughly I-20. Hope you get it.

Thanks Robert

Looking at the radar it's nice to see our coastal peeps finally getting some much needed action

[Psalm 148:8]

Its going to be an interesting day. There's a good onshore flow of subtropical air at the coast of GA to the Carolinas, and an incoming strong 5h system through the Tenn. Valley., and an upper low in the Gulf which should help create good convergence for widespread storms in Ala, GA and the Carolinas piedmont today and afternoon. There's enough shear to keep the storms moving , but with convergence and opposing forces esp. in Ga to the 85 corridor of the Carolinas, some steady, widespread storms and backbuilders could bring good rains over a big region by late today. I think its the first time in a long time to get as many places as possible with significant rains.

Just cked the vis satellite imagery and saw clouds north of me and south of me...hoping that lack of clouds aid in storm development.....however FFC and BMX both think that the northern and southern parts of the state do ok and me in the center gets not very much. Hope you are right Robert....the storms of the last few days really struggled to get going before they fizzled.

[LithiaWx]

Agreed for the most part although a 97 or 98 at Katl wouldn't shock me. This map looks very similar to one from early this month (maybe 1-2 degrees warmer), when the hottest at Katl ended up being 95.

I am just not as sure as everyone else that the GFS will bust. This time it is slightly different. The GFS is being more persistent with the heat, along with it being a tad hotter this time. The GFS is also not alone. I can't see modeled temps on the Euro but it had a very hot look at 500mb. I think this has just a good a chance of verifying as it does of busting. I think Atlanta breaks 100 this time but we shall see what happens!!!

[shaggy]

I'm sitting at 1.85 for the week so far which is really good. Everything has turned green really fast and its like i'm watching spring happen all over again. Some areas very nearby have seen as much as 6-8 inches under slow moving storms so you never know when its gonna be your turn to get dumped on with these kind of airmasses. VERY humid and tropical like this morning so i'm sure the storms today will be heavy rain producers again.

[buckeyefan1]

Hopefully this tropical moisture will unleash a deluge of rain on top of the fires

...SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL IMPACT THE

CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN MIDLANDS

OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL

SAVANNAH RIVER AREA PARTS OF THE WESTERN MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA

LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. SMOKE

MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE AT TIMES DURING THE PERIOD.

THERE MAY BE A STRONG SMELL OF SMOKE AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD

IMPROVE BY 2 PM WHEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE

EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

[kennedy]

Wow last night was unreal, a nice light show. And plenty of rain to boot. Have a great weekend all!

[jrips27]

FFC has dropped me to 40% for today I hope Robert is right though!

[GaWx]

I am just not as sure as everyone else that the GFS will bust. This time it is slightly different. The GFS is being more persistent with the heat, along with it being a tad hotter this time. The GFS is also not alone. I can't see modeled temps on the Euro but it had a very hot look at 500mb. I think this has just a good a chance of verifying as it does of busting. I think Atlanta breaks 100 this time but we shall see what happens!!!

1) Hawksfan,

Points well-taken and we're also getting closer to the hottest time of year climowise. Also, at 850 mb at 0Z on 7/13, both the 0Z 7/8 Euro and the 6Z 7/8 GFS have KATL at ~+23C. So, I'll even admit that 100 F wouldn't be a total shock. However, as of 0Z on 7/14, whereas the 6Z GFS is at a near record-breaking sizzling +25.5 C to +26 C, the 0Z Euro is "only" near +22 C. Also, keep in mind that the Euro continues to have its own warm bias though not nearly as strong as the current version of the GFS.

2) Folks,

Per today's (7/8) 6Z gfs (per MeteoStar), it has KATL's highs up to 103 F for both 7/12 and 7/13. Alltime hottest is only two F hotter at 105 F. Keep in mind that KATL is at 1,000 foot elevation. 850's are predicted to get as hot as +25.5 to +26 C as of 8 PM on 7/13 (0Z on 7/14)! Looking back at past intense heatwaves there, I don't recall having ever seen anything hotter than +25.5 to +26 C at 850. (The hottest may be ~+25.5 C per my memory.) So, I'm educatedly guessing that the 850's will verify at least a couple of degrees C cooler than this...say +23 C or cooler. Let's see what actually verifies at both the surface and at 850. I'll say this: if KATL were to somehow achieve +26 at 850, then I would expect 103 F to verify. I just don't see it getting nearly as hot as +26 C at 850.

[eyewall]

My forecast is now updated at http://www.sandhillswx.com . I left some things I wanted to say in the discussion out but the general idea is there. I am pressed for time.

[LithiaWx]

1) Hawksfan,

Points well-taken and we're also getting closer to the hottest time of year climowise. Also, at 850 mb at 0Z on 7/13, both the 0Z 7/8 Euro and the 6Z 7/8 GFS have KATL at ~+23C. So, I'll even admit that 100 F wouldn't be a total shock. However, as of 0Z on 7/14, whereas the 6Z GFS is at a near record-breaking sizzling +26 C, the 0Z Euro is "only" near +22 C. Also, keep in mind that the Euro continues to have its own warm bias though not nearly as strong as the current version of the GFS.

2) Folks,

Per today's (7/8) 6Z gfs (per MeteoStar), it has KATL's highs up to 103 F for both 7/12 and 7/13. Alltime hottest is only two F hotter at 105 F. Keep in mind that KATL is at 1,000 foot elevation. 850's are predicted to get as hot as +25.5 to +26 C as of 8 PM on 7/13 (0Z on 7/14)! Looking back at past intense heatwaves there, I don't recall having ever seen anything hotter than +25.5 to +26 C at 850. (The hottest may be ~+25.5 C per my memory.) So, I'm educatedly guessing that the 850's will verify at least a couple of degrees C cooler than this...say +23 C or cooler. Let's see what actually verifies at both the surface and at 850. I'll say this: if KATL were to somehow achieve +26 at 850, then I would expect 103 F to verify. I just don't see it getting nearly as hot as +26 C at 850.

It's a pretty safe bet it's going to be very hot next week. How hot is the question it appears! I did notice the Euro warm bias also in your post about the GFS verifying too warm in the main section of the forums.

[NC_hailstorm]

Good rain chances all week but I'm 0 for 5 so far,just a few sprinkles a couple times.

I'd be nice to get something soon.

[LithiaWx]

FFC has dropped me to 40% for today I hope Robert is right though!

They bumped us back up to 60% they also updated their graphic to include us in the numerous section! Game on brother!!!!111!

[jrips27]

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE

MID OHIO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH...WITH AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF

CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. CLOUD

COVER THINS ALONG/EAST OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND FROM SRN NEW

ENGLAND ACROSS THE DELMARVA ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND TN

WHERE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ARE OCCURRING.

IMMEDIATELY SOUTH/EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A BAND OF STRONGER

WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS IS PRESENT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS

ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE VERTICAL

SHEAR OF 30-45 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE

LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...WITH STRONGER STORMS

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

[jrips27]

They bumped us back up to 60% they also updated their graphic to include us in the numerous section! Game on brother!!!!111!

Woohoo!

[FoothillsNC]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

[LithiaWx]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

Last update I was sitting at 72 dewpoint also! Very muggy.

[NCBlizzard]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

Yea definitely muggy, about died while working outside. Really hoping we can catch some more rain today.

[dsaur]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-14067245

Snow in the Atacama desert. Very cool footage. Reasonably rare event - even to get any amount of precip.

Wow! I was expecting to see flurries I'm curious what the ratio was for that snow. That looks like a lot of liquid for the Atacama. Tony

[CLTwx]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

Robert....you guys getting the smoke from the S. Georgia fires. South Charlotte is haze covered "smokiness".

[MountainMarvel]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

Same here. but the rain started about 25 minutes ago, and it's still falling. After the heavy rains on Wednesday night, the creeks are full again, and everything is very green. Here are two pics I made last evening at sunset. The thunderstorms were forming between Shelby and Lincolnton, but it was cool to watch them boil up into such a deep blue sky.

[dsaur]

I remember that... awesome rainfall. I think we had 14" or so.

That was Alberto back in 94. One of my all time favorite weather events for amazement factor. Americus, Ga. got nearly 28 inches.

I got another .8 last night after dark. A storm blew up over me for a change, instead of down the road. T

[oconeexman]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

Same here with a temp of 93°...it's friggin unbearable and feels stormy. I'm looking forward to another dose today, already have a little over 3" for the week.

[kennedy]

Robert....you guys getting the smoke from the S. Georgia fires. South Charlotte is haze covered "smokiness".

I am in Pineville and work , we couldn't figure out if it was haze or smoke.

[FoothillsNC]

Robert....you guys getting the smoke from the S. Georgia fires. South Charlotte is haze covered "smokiness".

I was just looking outside and saw a haze, but didn't really think about it anything other than being so humid today. But that may be it.

Great pics Marvel! I was just looking at my old records, and seen that the Summer months of 2009 were dry here at my place...a total of just over 6" for June, July And August. I think I'm past that already and last Summers June and July were only trace amounts, so definitely well past those months. Also, usually when dewpoints are this high here, showers and storms are pretty much a given, so I *think* I'll end up with more rain in this area. Hopefully others get nailed too.

[buckeyefan1]

Same here. but the rain started about 25 minutes ago, and it's still falling. After the heavy rains on Wednesday night, the creeks are full again, and everything is very green. Here are two pics I made last evening at sunset. The thunderstorms were forming between Shelby and Lincolnton, but it was cool to watch them boil up into such a deep blue sky.

Beautiful

Currently a very muggy 91/72 here. This is the 42nd day in a row of temps above 90.....looks like the record could be in jeopardy

Mesoscale Discussion 1538< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SC...NC...SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081701Z - 081830Z AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN VA...NC AND SC THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE IN THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND FOOTHILLS OF SC AND NC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SC AND SRN NC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE PULSE STORMS. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS NRN NC AND SRN VA...WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB SUGGESTING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS STORMS INITIATE AND CONGEAL OVER WRN NC AND WCNTRL VA...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2011 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

[shaggy]

Dewpoint of 73 right now at my house, 72 airport. Extremely unusual to have this kind of dewpoint here, especially in the afternoon. It usually happens once or twice a year, and some Summers not even that. Feels extremely muggy.

DP is 72 here right now but earlier this morning we were extremely muggy. This is the obs from PGV this morning witht he DP bolded.

09:35SW 610.00Mostly CloudySCT011 BKN0198179

[buckeyefan1]

Mesoscale Discussion 1539< Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SC...GA...SRN-ERN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 081800Z - 081930Z AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN AL...GA AND WRN SC THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN SC SWWD ACROSS CNTRL GA INTO SE AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM....NEW CELLS WILL INITIATE WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMING NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE MCD AREA FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F AND 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS. AS THE STRONGER CELLS BRIEFLY PULSE UP AND DOWN...ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..BROYLES.. 07/08/2011 ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

[eyewall]

Just updated my forecast discussion:

http://www.sandhillswx.com