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July Obs.


dsaur

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Finally I seem to be in a good spot I prolly had more rain in the last 30 mins than I have had in the last 30 days lol. Slow movers and the stuff to my west seems to be headed this way be nice to see a widespread 2-3" event for the area.

Hope you guys get it. Thats a pretty nice size mass in northeast SC and southern sandhills of NC. If it can hold together.

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Hope you guys get it. Thats a pretty nice size mass in northeast SC and southern sandhills of NC. If it can hold together.

I got home to find an inch in the rain guage which was awesome. Not as much as some parts of the county but its a welcomed sight. Smell of smoke is thick but these rains will hopefully help slow the spread of the fires and prevent any new ones from popping up.

Bozart is having internet problems but sent me a text saying he had 2.70 inches of rain at his place 20 miles west of me and he was still getting some light stuff. He has real potential to reach 3 inches before tonight is said and done.

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Ah...finally got a cell to develop and dump over me.

pretty interesting watching the 2 waves combine somewhat right over western NC tonight. One from the north, one from eastern TN and the outflows that worked west from the eastern/Sandhills convection. The infrared still shows cooling. Now I can hear thunder increasing rapidly, hopefully something hits. This is your 4th storm today?

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pretty interesting watching the 2 waves combine somewhat right over western NC tonight. One from the north, one from eastern TN and the outflows that worked west from the eastern/Sandhills convection. The infrared still shows cooling. Now I can hear thunder increasing rapidly, hopefully something hits. This is your 4th storm today?

Actually this is #3...the first two developed around 4 pm and then weakened. Tonight's storm is stalling out overhead pulsing up on the northern and southern ends of the county...

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Some video stills of lightning I caught today (will upload the clip soon):

Very nice pics! I'm still trying to learn how use my fiances Nikon D70 on some lightning. She is a photographer but she is not into weather shots. I am getting lessons from her and hope to start posting some HQ pics of my own here soon.

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I just saw the 18Z GFS. :sizzle::devilsmiley: The numbers are really ridiculous for a lot of areas. For instance it has north Georgia with temps of 104 in a few spots. I saw 850 temps of 25c in Rome and 24c in Marietta. Both with modeled highs of 104. The 12Z GFS did back off on the heat a tad but the 18Z GFS brought it back and some. Who knows if it verifies but that's the hottest GFS run of the year for me.

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Do you think we can overcome the late start to the atmospheric destabilization? I still see some crap clouds in that pic you have there. Could that inhibit convection still or has it burned off enough to allow for some storms to fire?

I thought we might have a chance to pop something but it just didn't pan out. The action in TN was sliding SE and our skies finally cleared out and my temp jumped form 71 at noon to 83 by 3pm. Too little too late. Those crap clouds were pretty thin by that point when I posted the cam image and I was getting some towering cumulus developing off the ridge line of the apps but they just couldn't quite pop.

That's a gorgeous piece of land.

Thanks! It's boat loads of fun to mow too. :arrowhead:

it sure is! and i cant believe how green it is. maybe i need to bribe him to come over and work on my yard :scooter:

the clouds earlier today were nice in keeping the temp down (just now reaching the low 80s) but it sure did stop the sun from heating things up and popping up the storms. oh well

It looks great from my webcam but it's nothing but field grass that we mow about every 1 1/2 weeks. I don't do anything to it but cut it. LOL. I guess the 4+" of rain we have received since June 22nd sure does help to keep it green....and growing. At the beginning of June it was starting to brown and I was hoping the mowing would subside a bit. Oh well...I'd rather have the rain anyway.

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I just saw the 18Z GFS. :sizzle::devilsmiley: The numbers are really ridiculous for a lot of areas. For instance it has north Georgia with temps of 104 in a few spots. I saw 850 temps of 25c in Rome and 24c in Marietta. Both with modeled highs of 104. The 12Z GFS did back off on the heat a tad but the 18Z GFS brought it back and some. Who knows if it verifies but that's the hottest GFS run of the year for me.

Several gfs runs for days 4-8 had just about as hot for the first few days of July at KATL (I remember seeing several 102-103's). However, although KATL made it to a hot 95 F on

the hottest of those days, those gfs runs verified to be about 8 F too hot. Is this the newfound gfs n. hemis. hot bias at work? Hopefully it is for the sake of those who don't want to broil. I currently give it little chance to verify. Besides, the just released 0Z gfs, 12Z gfs, and the 12Z Euro are not as hot as the 18Z gfs.

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Ended up with .67" yesterday - the first ½" fell in 20 minutes, the rest in light rain showers early last night. Looking more and more like I might need a pontoon boat for the Tim McGraw concert at Walnut Creek tomorrow night

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somehow we managed to miss the huge storms yesterday here at the beach :whistle:

I mean it poured a few times in Conway, 10 miles inland and not a dang drop in North Myrtle. Getting old FAST! I'm not one to complain but damn, talk about the haves and the have not. Geez, maybe today will be the day......

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I ended up with .13 yesterday while the airport again picked up 1.09 :arrowhead: I watch the storms get close, and then watch as they split to my north and south. Wind gusts of 58mph recorded 10 miles to my north and hail 15 miles to my south. dry.gif

Same story here. For the last two days, I have had storms all around me..literally within just 2 or 3 miles and somehow I got missed. 2 days ago in particular was just absurd with 3 storms within shouting distance of me and I managed to only get sprinkles. Ugh.

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I've managed a tenth of an inch combined from two showers in the last week. But, at least when it clouds up, it cools off, even though others get the rain. I can't complain about cool. And I can't complain about the new GFS warm bias either. This coming winter will be ever so nice when they predict 30 and I get a very nice 22 instead, lol. I'll take that every time..especially right about now! 96 beats the heck out of 104! T

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The stable core has eroded faster then yesterday. Therefore the morning transition period has ended sooner. The convective currents are rising sooner, therefore I think we will have a much greater chance for thunderstorms then yesterday.

3hr surface CAPE change:

sbcp_chg.gif?1310059413464

Current satellite image

VCG13-16312011188.jpg

Current Radar

NatLoop.gif

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I'm sitting in a parking lot under that cell in SW Durham county. We've had rain, wind, lightning and thunder, and even some hail. It's been quite the little storm. I bet we picked up a good inch of rain at least over the past 20-30 minutes. Totally worth being out and about for. I just wish it would let up so I could go inside (I have no umbrella :( ).

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Same story here. For the last two days, I have had storms all around me..literally within just 2 or 3 miles and somehow I got missed. 2 days ago in particular was just absurd with 3 storms within shouting distance of me and I managed to only get sprinkles. Ugh.

same here :( storms all around nearly every day. nothing here. and the same places a few miles away keep getting storms :gun_bandana:

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picking up a pretty decent cell right now. All the storms keep growing right after they pass this area. Wish I could get slammed with a huge mass coming from the Upstate, but that almost never happens in west to east flow. Or ever. I'd bet the piedmont of NC becomes a huge wash tonight when the cells form into a massive shield.

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