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July Obs.


dsaur

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Folks,

The 12z Euro, which was just released, has another heatwave starting around next weekend for the SE US. For example, it has 20+ C 850's from hour 132 through 240 at KATL and lows of upper 70's for days 8-10! it even has `+23 C 850's for day 10, which would be slightly warmer than this last heatwave's 850's! I'll take the details/intensity with a grain of salt for now, especially given the Euro has a moderate warm bias. However, signs are becoming clearer that another heatwave may be around the corner. Hopefully, it won't be nearly as bad as this week's heatwave.

Just looking over model runs after getting home from work and it seem the EURO and GFS are in decent agreement in the 7-10 day period in showing a substantial heatwave for Georgia and the Carolinas. In fact the GFS is going bonkers with highs reaching 100+ for 8 consecutive days here in Charlotte starting next Wednesday. Like the last heatwave its showing extremely high humidity values with dew points staying at or above 70 degrees for most of us while 80+ degree dew points show up for the eastern Carolinas Thursday into the weekend making it feel like 115-120 degrees! EURO is not as hot with its surface temperatures but shows similar dew point temperatures with 80 degree dewpoints showing up in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. However the second half of the weekend into early next week the EURO shows more of a downsloping component allowing dew points to mix out a lot more than what the GFS is currently showing east of the mountains. With the agreement the EURO and GFS are showing one has to raise an eyebrow, however there has been a strong trend this summer to dampen these heat waves in the east as you get to within the 5 day forecast period so I am somewhat skeptical right now given seasonal trends and the warm bias of the models so far.

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what was your high today. I see CAE is at 82 right now. I'm one of the cooler spots in NC (or southeast for that matter) Sitting at 63 here, Hickory and 59 in Boone. I wish I could bottle it up and share with everybody, plus its been raining lightly all day long since around 10 am.

The high temp here is going to be 75, which occurred at 12:01 AM, and has been going down slowly ever since. Charlotte was 78 at midnight, so thats their high.

CAE has 87 and I've got 86 with no complaints here :hug:

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Just looking over model runs after getting home from work and it seem the EURO and GFS are in decent agreement in the 7-10 day period in showing a substantial heatwave for Georgia and the Carolinas. In fact the GFS is going bonkers with highs reaching 100+ for 8 consecutive days here in Charlotte starting next Wednesday. Like the last heatwave its showing extremely high humidity values with dew points staying at or above 70 degrees for most of us while 80+ degree dew points show up for the eastern Carolinas Thursday into the weekend making it feel like 115-120 degrees! EURO is not as hot with its surface temperatures but shows similar dew point temperatures with 80 degree dewpoints showing up in eastern Tennessee and Kentucky. However the second half of the weekend into early next week the EURO shows more of a downsloping component allowing dew points to mix out a lot more than what the GFS is currently showing east of the mountains. With the agreement the EURO and GFS are showing one has to raise an eyebrow, however there has been a strong trend this summer to dampen these heat waves in the east as you get to within the 5 day forecast period so I am somewhat skeptical right now given seasonal trends and the warm bias of the models so far.

I agree. I haven't seen the euro's surface temps yet, but it waits until late to move the ridge directly overtop the Southeast. Its later panels almost always flip a good bit on the next run, so I don't give it nearly the credence I actually give GFS these days. But with its ridge so far west, this fits the pattern of whats been going on most of the season, where the immediate east coast can get snipped with nw flow, and occasionally get into the serious heat for a day or 2, in between convective complexes. The GFS shows much more realistically the MCC activity, or if you infer between the lines on its setup, its there, with Tue or Wed being a chance of an MCC, then after that it moves the ridge bodily east, so if that happens we'd get truly hot and dry , but again probably briefly, as the core always goes back west.

Eventually we'll shift to a bermuda ridge pattern, but we'd probably need the GFS to be right in it moving the heat ridge over teh Southeast before that can happen. That way, other areas will get into traditional southwest flow, but until I see good signs, I'd say we stay in the same old pattern roughly of slightly above normal temps, in NC, and hotter immediately south and west toward western GA especially and into Tenn. Valley, with occasional storm complexes dropping down the front of the ridge into the Virginias and Carolinas, and possibly rotating west under the ridge. Usually August is when the pattern begins to break and I think by then we'll be into a period of time with a good setup for hurricane or tropical system that comes into the Southeast or gulf...but only when the major ridging in Tex/ok/Mo eases up.

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Shelby's dropped to 59 degrees. Who would've thunk that in what could be the hottest day of the year. And its daylight out.

post-38-0-76387100-1310772551.jpg

It is chilly out, currently my thermo says 64. I still can't get over how during the hottest part of the day in the hottest part of the year we were in the mid-upper 60's

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I just looked at the calendar and sure enough it is July 15th. I wouldn't have known it by today's weather, feels like September and early October out here.

Current temp is 65 with a dewpoint of 60 and the wind is blowing out of the NE at 3mph gusting up to 21mph!!!!!! :snowman:

It rained lightly for most of the morning and it rained last night for about a full hour. Also the sun hasn't even peeked out today, what a great day for golfing.

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From FFC:

---------------------------

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS MID SUMMER WEDGE IN PLACE FROM THE

EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SW GEORGIA WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK THE

RESULT. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE PRESENCE OF INVERTED TROUGH AXIS

OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING WHICH WILL

LIKELY MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE FOR TODAY. MODELS ALL

TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS FROM NW TO SW

WITH THE GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS ASPECT. SEE NO REASON TO

STRAY FROM TYPICAL MODEL BIAS WHICH IS TO CLEAR THINGS OUT TOO

QUICKLY IN THESE SETUPS. THEREFORE...PLAN TO SHOW LIMITED CLEARING

CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SHAVE A FEW MORE

DEGREES OFF ANTICIPATED HIGH TEMPS.

AS FAR AS POP COVERAGE...CURRENT GRID SET LOOKS LARGELY ON TRACK.

WHERE THERE IS SOME CLEARING OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREAS HOWEVER...COULD

SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN MODELS FORECAST AND ALTHOUGH

STILL LIMITED...THIS COULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHALLOW

CONVECTION AND HIGHER POPS. SOME AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF

CWA DID RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...SO MAY NEED TO

MONITOR SHOULD ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ENSUE.

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My name is Casey and I am also from the northern foothills. Seems like we fair pretty well with rain and cooler temps than other parts of the state.

yeah we're in prime position for CAD, compared to places farther east in the piedmont. I love winters that have alot of CAD events.

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Awesome :) I am a fan of warm season CAD following that heat.

Same here, Its just plain nice to go outside and do anything without being attacked by the bugs and sweating just sitting in the shade. Got a tone done in the yard finally since I've put it off since May or early June. Re-carving mulch beds which is easy since the soil is so soft. The ground is just right and workable...can't say that here very often , esp. in the Summer.

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