MotoWeatherman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 MXX is working. Looks like your fixing to get wet. It looked pretty hopeless earlier today. Not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Feels like a different world here tonight. Temp 75, dewpoint 64. You can enjoy being outside again. Looks like the long range gets us hot again. But as Phil mentioned, still question marks on how hot. The ECMWF has the ridge come right over us eventually, as does GFS, with +24 in a couple spots under the 594 ridge, centered about over the Tenn Valley. A lot of times this season, they both don't capture some northwest flow s/w that seem to always pop up and end up dropping south or southeast. Still plenty hot for a lot of areas though. Its a wash-rinse-repeat pattern so far, with the worst of the heat remaining mostly in the central /so. Plains and Miss Valley. By August, we'll be entering a different pattern, which is climo for the Southeast. Normally, its a wetter month for most of the Southeast the last few Summers, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Feels like a different world here tonight. Temp 75, dewpoint 64. You can enjoy being outside again. Looks like the long range gets us hot again. But as Phil mentioned, still question marks on how hot. The ECMWF has the ridge come right over us eventually, as does GFS, with +24 in a couple spots under the 594 ridge, centered about over the Tenn Valley. A lot of times this season, they both don't capture some northwest flow s/w that seem to always pop up and end up dropping south or southeast. Still plenty hot for a lot of areas though. Its a wash-rinse-repeat pattern so far, with the worst of the heat remaining mostly in the central /so. Plains and Miss Valley. By August, we'll be entering a different pattern, which is climo for the Southeast. Normally, its a wetter month for most of the Southeast the last few Summers, so we'll see. Maybe the last few summers have been wetter in August, but typically August is a drier month than July, at least in Atlanta, due to the fact that afternoon storms tend to diminish, and unless we get rain from a ts or hurricane in august, it can often be extremely hot and dry. August is what i like to call the beginning of a our "dry" season, which usually lasts through October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Maybe the last few summers have been wetter in August, but typically August is a drier month than July, at least in Atlanta, due to the fact that afternoon storms tend to diminish, and unless we get rain from a ts or hurricane in august, it can often be extremely hot and dry. August is what i like to call the beginning of a our "dry" season, which usually lasts through October. That is true. August thru November are the driest months for the Atlanta area...but many places in the SE get a tick up in August. http://www.sercc.com...iMAIN.pl?ga0451 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks like your fixing to get wet. It looked pretty hopeless earlier today. Not anymore. I had all but given up on it, I've had 0.01" so far! Looks like it will be here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I had all but given up on it, I've had 0.01" so far! Looks like it will be here shortly. We have had some light rain for the last hour or so...no soaking thunderstorms, but I guess slow and steady wins the race......I cannot believe how close I was to that wicked little storm that passed just to my NE earlier...It went through Heard and Carroll and is now in Alabama....and still showing up some wicked lightning now in NE Alabama....Channel 111 on my TV is 11 alive's radar....24/7....Radar is about like intellicast (a bit overdone as to the reflectivity) but I have noticed that the little lighting stirkes on the map are the cg ones....found that out first hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Rain completely skipped over us in Carrollton. Missed me barely to the south and west. Lots of lightning though. Still only .25" since June 27. I feel like I'm in a small little desert surrounded by a tropical rain forest in alll directions. Seems like somehow, someway the storms will find a way to avoid my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Maybe the last few summers have been wetter in August, but typically August is a drier month than July, at least in Atlanta, due to the fact that afternoon storms tend to diminish, and unless we get rain from a ts or hurricane in august, it can often be extremely hot and dry. August is what i like to call the beginning of a our "dry" season, which usually lasts through October. I'm just going by rough memory here, but seems like the last few Augusts, that has been the wetter of the hot months in the Southeast in general, maybe I'm wrong. I know in my area to the Upstate for sure, we've had turnarounds in that month, from previous dry June/July. This year has been average wet for my area, so it'll be interesting to see if we beef up rain amounts then, or go the other way, or stay about the same. The long range GFS did look like it was changing the overall flow, and that would be getting us close to a change in August, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I'm just going by rough memory here, but seems like the last few Augusts, that has been the wetter of the hot months in the Southeast in general, maybe I'm wrong. I know in my area to the Upstate for sure, we've had turnarounds in that month, from previous dry June/July. This year has been average wet for my area, so it'll be interesting to see if we beef up rain amounts then, or go the other way, or stay about the same. The long range GFS did look like it was changing the overall flow, and that would be getting us close to a change in August, so we'll see. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/gsppcp.htm It has been kind of hit and miss at GSP, as you can see in the records above. Since 2000, 5/11 of the years had August as the driest month of the summer, with 4/11 being the wettest month of the summer. August 2007 still sticks out like a sore thumb in my mind in the Upstate of SC for unbearable heat with limited rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Been raining for about thirty minutes. Man, we needed it. High of 82 predicted for tomorrow. Sweet. Although, next week its back to the anvil w/ 95s showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Feels truly amazing outside with a slight breeze blowing from the north, feels like fall! Lower dp's really help. Temp is currently 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ended up with 1.21" which isn't bad, I'm now at 5.33" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Bottomed out at a delicious 59° this morning! Still gotta drag the water hoses around, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ended up with 1.21" which isn't bad, I'm now at 5.33" for the month. Nice! That turned out really well for you. Got dumped on just after midnight from that band moving north thru Atlanta. Ended up with 1.38". 0.94" of that fell in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 My yard is about as green as it gets! I can take the heat if I can get the rain too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 What a change....64 with rain and drizzle Feels great. Although I am a bit jealous of the folks that have been getting a lot of rain lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 picked up .98 last nite and it's still raining with a temp of 64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 picked up .98 last nite and it's still raining with a temp of 64. I'm not surprised. Your area will be the place with consistent clouds and light rain again today . Looks like the GFS wasn't that far off intially from several days ago, with its upslope and light rain, just a little overdone though. NWS has dropped my highs from mid 80's to near 80 now. The RUC has the flow remaining unchanged today, so the western Carolinas and northern GA are socked in with a much cooler, damp flow. Sitting at 69 here with a dewpoint of 58, and sprinkles in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Been raining for about thirty minutes. Man, we needed it. High of 82 predicted for tomorrow. Sweet. Although, next week its back to the anvil w/ 95s showing up. Incredibly nice outside here - cloudy and cool-ish....but models consistent in showing big heat returning next week. This matches climo though for late July - always seems to be baking at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Folks, Both the 6z gfs and 6z nam are hinting at something tropical forming off of the SE coast by Monday. With anomalously high sfc pressure (1025 mb) progged to persist to the N and NE of this area through the late weekend into early next week, this area will probably need to be monitored for the chance of a spinup that could subsequently threaten the SE coast around Tuesday. With this being July, this would be a pretty rare event (homegrown tropical cyclone that subsequently moves to the SE coast), but it has occured a handfull of times over the last 100 years in July. So, although the odds are against it, it wouldn't at all be shocking considering the anomalous sfc high to the NE. A later Invest wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 NC Avery County Ridgelines: Upper 40s to Low 50s This Morning Today looks to be one of those summer days in the mountains where along the ridgelines you will be able to look down to the tops of the cloud deck below out over the foothills and piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 82 was the 'low' temp at Dallas, TX this morning. Also, Port Aurthur, TX at 8AM is 81 temp, 81 dewpoint with calm winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Folks, Both the 6z gfs and 6z nam are hinting at something tropical forming off of the SE coast by Monday. With anomolously sfc high pressure progged to persist to the N and NE of this area through the late weekend into early next week, this area will probably need to be monitored for the chance of a spinup that could subsequently threaten the SE coast around Tuesday. With this being July, this would be a pretty rare event (homegrown tropical cyclone that subsequently moves to the SE coast), but it has occured a handfull of times over the last 100 years. So, although the odds are against it, it wouldn't at all be shocking considering the anomolous sfc high to the NE. A later Invest wouldn't surprise me. I agree Larry. I wouldn't trust the NAM with it yet since it spins up anything and everything off the SE coast when there's front in the area, but there are a couple cold core ULL that could turn tropical over time. But with the way the 5H is setup, the Southeast coast is in between a highly amplified flow that will continue for a while, as the strong closed ridge sits just to our west and northwest. The GFS has a strong MCC that tracks due south on Tuesday to hit Va, and the Carolinas and northern and eastern GA about then, and usually that is the case with strong closed highs to our west. That may then stall out and form a spin up from the MCV circulation left over..again rare, but has happened and we've seen a ton of these this season, so if ever one got going in a particular year, this year is the best chance. But that feature may disrupt any prelimary circulation that gets going (NAM) so I'm not sure which feature is correct on the models as of yet. The timing could be off,and of course nothing may happen at all, but the GFS MCC is probably likely correct, since we've been in that pattern all along. That also helps keep wicked heat out of the Carolinas a little while, even though we get bursts of heat just before they arrive. It also has that moisture working west and southwest once it gets to eastern GA and much like we have now, with the true oppressive heat remaining from western GA, westbound and northbound. If anything tropical can form, and not be captured by the northern stream early next week, it could easily work west into the coast of GA and northern FL, then crawl into Al or the northern Gulf of Mex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 ^^^^ Great post and anaylsis. Yesterdays rain put us at an for the month of july. By the coast in and around Brunswick,Ga they have seen totals of up to 3-5 inches today with those storms that are slowly drifting west. Forecasted High of only 87. Its 82 with a dewpoint of 81 and HI of 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I don't know about the NWS radars uptime on their site but my radars have been working the whole time. Link is in my signature if you want to use it the next time the NWS web site radars go out. I know about your site, but I try to avoid sites with lots of java script. No offense but I absolutely hate sites with lots of java/javascript...does nothing but freeze my computer and loads so slow, even on my new labtop. Anywho, was totally screwed again with the rain yesterday. Got nothing more than 5 minutes of light rain as usual. I've lost count on how many storms have gotten withing spitting difference and all I have gotten was sprinkles/light rain. It happened twice more yesterday, one in the morning and again overnight. Lake is dropping fast and will post a pic of it pretty soon. I would know but I have to leave for a few days in just a little bit. It's been so frustrating and the lookout screwzone has been in full effect for quite a while now, while everywhere around me seems to get a storm either every day or every other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know about your site, but I try to avoid sites with lots of java script. No offense but I absolutely hate sites with lots of java/javascript...does nothing but freeze my computer and loads so slow, even on my new labtop. Anywho, was totally screwed again with the rain yesterday. Got nothing more than 5 minutes of light rain as usual. I've lost count on how many storms have gotten withing spitting difference and all I have gotten was sprinkles/light rain. It happened twice more yesterday, one in the morning and again overnight. Lake is dropping fast and will post a pic of it pretty soon. I would know but I have to leave for a few days in just a little bit. It's been so frustrating and the lookout screwzone has been in full effect for quite a while now, while everywhere around me seems to get a storm either every day or every other day. Sorry to hear that, I haven't had that complaint before. The NEXRAD status page has two Javascripts that run, one for the banner and one for the menu float. The banner script is the most CPU intensive of the two. I'm considering changing my banner approach to get rid of the script which would speed things up. I currently have four of my pages open right now, along with 6 other tabs in Chrome, I have Adobe Fireworks and Dreamweaver loaded, I have a GRLevelX instance running, as well as WxMesg Map. Windows XP, 3GB memory, Toshiba Laptop 5 years old. You running Win7? What browser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 74/69 here. Wonder if we can avoid hitting 80 today? As long as we continue to have showers and a feed of cool NErly air, my fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know about your site, but I try to avoid sites with lots of java script. No offense but I absolutely hate sites with lots of java/javascript...does nothing but freeze my computer and loads so slow, even on my new labtop. Anywho, was totally screwed again with the rain yesterday. Got nothing more than 5 minutes of light rain as usual. I've lost count on how many storms have gotten withing spitting difference and all I have gotten was sprinkles/light rain. It happened twice more yesterday, one in the morning and again overnight. Lake is dropping fast and will post a pic of it pretty soon. I would know but I have to leave for a few days in just a little bit. It's been so frustrating and the lookout screwzone has been in full effect for quite a while now, while everywhere around me seems to get a storm either every day or every other day. There is no Java script on my site. All the loops are FLASH. I don't like java loops either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The rain is coming down in buckets outside. An inch per hour maybe. Surprised that there is no thunder but its coming down. Been raining very hard for about 30mins and the radar just starting to show the storm. Its gotten windy in the past few minutes too. Now its thundering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I know about your site, but I try to avoid sites with lots of java script. No offense but I absolutely hate sites with lots of java/javascript...does nothing but freeze my computer and loads so slow, even on my new labtop. Anywho, was totally screwed again with the rain yesterday. Got nothing more than 5 minutes of light rain as usual. I've lost count on how many storms have gotten withing spitting difference and all I have gotten was sprinkles/light rain. It happened twice more yesterday, one in the morning and again overnight. Lake is dropping fast and will post a pic of it pretty soon. I would know but I have to leave for a few days in just a little bit. It's been so frustrating and the lookout screwzone has been in full effect for quite a while now, while everywhere around me seems to get a storm either every day or every other day. I feel your pain While the airport shows over 3" for the month, I sit with approx .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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