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July Obs.


dsaur

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the models have about totally nixed the ideas of any upslope rains in n. Ga and western Carolinas now. Including the SREF. It made huge changes suddenly the last run, to match the NAM and recent GFS, it looks like the front is pushing so far south and west, that high pressure settles into the heart of the Carolinas. However, good rains along the Gulf Coast next few days and west of the front in Ala and TN some areas.

Old SREF rh:

post-38-0-98018100-1310653973.gif

New SREF :

post-38-0-07570300-1310654001.gif

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While the heat across the southeast this week was pretty rough (coupled with high dewpoints which made it much worse), it looks like we missed the brunt of the very high temperatures that affected those further to the west. I think this trend will generally hold up, even with the models showing another shot of very warm temperatures as the upper level ridge attempts to move eastward. I'm more in support of the GFS, which is keeping the Northeast under a trough which will likely keep us in flux between the unbearable heat further west, and the unsettled weather but cooler temperatures further east. In fact, the pattern we were stuck in for much of June looks to be ready for a repeat performance for the second half of July.

The Culprit... the continued persistant -NAO

2u91y5d.gif

Even though the NAO is attempting to approach neutral right now (and has let a bit of the heat in the Midwest and Plains move eastward) it looks like it will only be a temporary rise as we settle back into a consistent -NAO. Considering this has been the main trend for the better part of two months, I don't see much change occurring despite the ideas of the ECWMF. While things will likely remain somewhat above average temperature wise, I think most of us in the Southeast will escape the brunt of the major heat waves that have been, and will be occurring further west.

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I figured it for heat induced insanity as I stood outside with a nice wind in my face...and I could feel some cool in that wind! My thermomoter says 88.3, so I know I'm cracking up, but what the hey, it still feels good out compared to recently. Plus the ever welcome clouds are up there smiling down on me, and blocking that other thing that smiles :) T

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Video I took of yesterday's lightning:

There were some anvil crawlers on the backside (although not truly crawling like some do but some great spider lightning none the less).

Keep in mind this is shot at 210 fps (7x the frames at 7x slower speed than normal).

Great shots Jeremy!

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Well, Lookout, here I sit again....thunder crashing all around :lightning: ....and a radar thats 30 minutes old....no update....cked the East Alabama radar....same issues...Oh well, guess I'll do it the old fashoined way.....look out the window.:arrowhead:

It's very frustrating, especially when you're trying to cover storms from home! gun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gifgun_bandana.gif

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Well, Lookout, here I sit again....thunder crashing all around :lightning: ....and a radar thats 30 minutes old....no update....cked the East Alabama radar....same issues...Oh well, guess I'll do it the old fashoined way.....look out the window.:arrowhead:

can't believe it took me this long to look up Psalm 148:8. Nicely done!

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Well...that's all I got! The consolation prize! Thunder for an hour! but nary a drop.:thumbsdown: Sun was out in the back yard like there was no storm around....yet in the front, clouds and breeze....HA! And it was the only storm around.....everything else is to my west and south.....well maybe the cooler temps will keep me from burning my tail up when I have to water the azaleas tonite.

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can't believe it took me this long to look up Psalm 148:8. Nicely done!

:offtopic:

Used to have it in my sig at Eastern before the crash of the site....just never took the time to put it back....thanks for inspiring me to do so. If you've never listed to the song "Indescribable" by Chris Tomlin, you should....its awesome! Its on you tube.

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Love the look of this wedge! Storms firing up all along it, while to the north there's hardly a drop! Fortunately, south Georgia is getting much needed rain so hopefully the smoke from the Honey Prairie fire will be gone for a while! Looking forward to a respite from the heat and humidity for the next few days thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

post-1807-0-05910800-1310673999.gif

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Its storms everywhere lol. That thunder was explosively loud and the lightning was amazing. Now its just raining lightly. A flood advisory in effect for the central part of the county. Not here though. At least the fire areas is getting rain. It rained yesterday and today. 2 days in a row lol.

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Looking ahead --- we've got another concert to go to next Friday. Toby Keith and Eric Church. Yes, we bought the country Megaticket --- 6 shows throughout the summer, and yeah, we know we're taking a chance with it being outdoors. Long range right now is clear and 98° at 18z on 7/22. Let's see how that changes over the next 8 days. All indications are that it's going to be HOT again, just a matter of HOW hot. Will take the break we're getting right now --- calling for 62 overnight. Already have the AC off and windows open in anticipation :thumbsup:

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