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July Obs.


dsaur

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning for downtown Atlanta...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

332 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

MIDTOWN...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

ATLANTA...GRANT PARK-ZOO ATLANTA...HAPEVILLE...EAST POINT AND

COLLEGE PARK.

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97/73 = HI of 108 now at KJNX... I think at this point numbers are just numbers--- it's plain oppressive out there.

I was clicking surrounding sites on the NWS page to see where everyone was at temp wise and I came across this "official" NWS obs from Washington,NC. It HAS to be an error if not this may be the highest HI I have ever seen.

Washington, Warren Field Airport

Lat: 35.57 Lon: -77.05 Elev: 39

Last Update on Jul 12, 3:55 pm EDT

Fair

99 °F

(37 °C)Humidity:67 %Wind Speed:W 12 MPHBarometer:29.83"Dewpoint:86 °F (30 °C)Heat Index:135 °F (57 °C)Visibility:10.00 mi

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Yeah, read that earlier... I do like the fact that SPC more times than not explains their reasoning for changes in the risk assessment, instead of just posting a new map and disco. Guess we'll have to be satisfied with pop-ups for a few days to collect raindrops.

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Ok... :

-----------------------------------

95.3 F - High Temp - 2:40 pm

116.0 F - High Heat Index - 2:35 pm

81.1 F - High Dew Point - 11:56 am

wow what an ugly day, I think my numbers were similar but I don't think my neck of the woods had a DP quite that high. We may have been a degree higher in actual temps though.

edit : one of the most miserable days in recent memory in terms of how it felt outside today and last night. FFC is going with 99 tomorrow for KATL. and 98 for KMGE. WE shall see how it transpires. Regardless the GFS has been off it's rocker consistently with temps modeled 5 degrees higher than they verify. Really odd, it seems as though it's warm bias has decided to move to the short term instead of sticking to the 5-6 frame. Really disappointing to say the least. Larry I'm sure has some more insights as to why but if it is tied to the upgrade that happened recently then I hope they work hard on a solution to fix it. I wish I could fully understand the problem with the GFS but I don't. In this day and age you would think we could have some more reliable models. The thing that seems to bother me the most about the GFS is it initializing with numbers that are not accurate. The GFS is wrong right out of the gate it seems and gets worse after a few hours. The 2Pm temps and DP's on the GFS have been laughable recently.

edit 2 : no surprise FFC extended the Heat Advisory into tomorrow, stating air temps will be between 95-104 :arrowhead:

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS FROM 95 TO 104 DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

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Sitting at 93 now. We may go another degree, so 93/94 will be my high . The dewpoints really mixed out, at 64 now. Yesterday felt a little worse, with the extreme humidity here.

Gotta ask you...why did the dewpoints mix out big time just east of the mountains? I've heard some claim that last night's storm complex mixed in some drier air aloft...

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Gotta ask you...why did the dewpoints mix out big time just east of the mountains? I've heard some claim that last night's storm complex mixed in some drier air aloft...

I think it was from the outflow of the storms that collapsed mostly in western NC, and I noticed a cooler, much drier breeze from the north this morning. That wind eventually went west, and maintained the dry flow at the surface, while yesterday was mostly south or southeast flow which pulled air from a much more humid source. The dewpoints mixing into the mid 60's wasn't forecast too well, but it does happen a lot in a small region. Just look at the obs map and you can see it nicely right now. The west and nw flow was just enough downslope component to help continue the mixing. Huge difference in my dt right now and just 40 miles east at CLT, where its mid 70's...right about there is a Td transition or weak boundary and the wind changes. This happened a lot of the previous BIG heat waves here, including the all time record highs a lot of the Southeast set a couple years ago. Dewpoints in Rutherford, and Cleveland especially were very noticeable at upper 40's in the afternoon, while GSP and esp. CLT were upper 60's. That was the biggest disparity I've ever seen.

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I think it was from the outflow of the storms that collapsed mostly in western NC, and I noticed a cooler, much drier breeze from the north this morning. That wind eventually went west, and maintained the dry flow at the surface, while yesterday was mostly south or southeast flow which pulled air from a much more humid source. The dewpoints mixing into the mid 60's wasn't forecast too well, but it does happen a lot in a small region. Just look at the obs map and you can see it nicely right now. The west and nw flow was just enough downslope component to help continue the mixing. Huge difference in my dt right now and just 40 miles east at CLT, where its mid 70's...right about there is a Td transition or weak boundary and the wind changes. This happened a lot of the previous BIG heat waves here, including the all time record highs a lot of the Southeast set a couple years ago. Dewpoints in Rutherford, and Cleveland especially were very noticeable at upper 40's in the afternoon, while GSP and esp. CLT were upper 60's. That was the biggest disparity I've ever seen.

Thanks for your analysis...Next question I'm thinking is...Will they mix out again tomorrow? I'm betting with a front fairly close by, that there won't be as much mixing.

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Correct me if I'm wrong but don't you have to have a mornng low of at least 75 to be under a heat advisory ? FFC has me with a low of 71 but still under a Heat Advisory.

Technically yes, but I think their concern is the high temps and heat indexes. High DP's at night might help to override the low temp cutoff? Maybe Steve will chime in.

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Technically yes, but I think their concern is the high temps and heat indexes. High DP's at night might help to override the low temp cutoff? Maybe Steve will chime in.

The criteria is different for different areas. I tried looking it up and the Criteria for Georgia I'm not able to find it. I'd be interested to see if Heat index at night can override the 75 if that's even correct.

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I didn't ride the thermometer all day, but the hottest I saw was 91.7, and within a half hour, or around 3ish, the clouds disappeared the sun, as has been the daily ritual, and it was down around 87, My idea of a wonderful result via a heat advisory. I don't care if I never see 100 again...ever!! I've lived thru enough consecutive days of no breeze and 100+ temps to have me glutted forever. I'm loving the new GFS temp disorder...just wait until all those surprise snow/sleet events when it was supposed to be 8 degrees warmer, lol. Larry, I'm calling for 2 major sleets and a big, huge snow where it should have been 33 and rain :) T

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