GaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 While the 6Z Tue 7/12 gfs has KATL at 106 F at the sfc and +25 C at 850 as of 2 PM Wed 7/13, the 0Z Tue 7/12 Euro has only ~ 88 F at the sfc and +20 C at 850. How about that for model agreement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 despite the strong ridging, looks like thunderstorms are going to affect some areas today. Currently southeast Kentucky and east Tn are still developing, and the SPC is eyeing the eastern Carolinas later today for a possible MCC VA INTO NC ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE NERN TROUGH. THUS...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MERGING INTO AN MCS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 the MCC rolled around the front of the ridge, all the way to southeast Tennessee and w. NC.If the clouds don't dissipate quickly enough today, they are going to put a real damper on the high temp forecasts in Tn, n. Al, n. Ga and the Carolinas. Robert, Woke up to a light rain this am. Full cloud deck with low & high clouds now. Hope it holds on long enough to squash the temp forecast. When we hit 90+ my ac unit just can't keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Robert, Woke up to a light rain this am. Full cloud deck with low & high clouds now. Hope it holds on long enough to squash the temp forecast. When we hit 90+ my ac unit just can't keep up. I think your forecast high is 90 today, but with so many clouds, and the new developing cirrus shield aiming straight at you from the anvils in southeast Kentucky, I doubt AVL makes it. Likewise here the forecast is upper 90's , which is about 9 degrees higher than yesterday, and all Summer long the forecasts here have been several degrees too high. I think neither you nor I make our forecast highs, especially considering the cirrus shield coming right for us from eastern KY, and the current cloud deck. That would be a good bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Little peek at the Euro and looky, looky a 1012mb low around Savannah at 192h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yep....evidence is knocking on my door as some showers just popped up in the past 20 minutes in response to it approaching north GA. wow what a storm - i didnt see this one coming until i heard the thunder. moving from the ne to the sw - an absolute deluge going on with a lot of lightning (not much wind). ditches and roads are covered in water and it is just pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Yep....evidence is knocking on my door as some showers just popped up in the past 20 minutes in response to it approaching north GA. Been watching those! There is still hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Current obs here on the surface of the sun (aka Concord, NC).... temp 88F, dp 75.... heat index 98 as of 9:15am. Going to be a scorcher boys and girls...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 83/76 here. About the highest dew point I've ever seen. Even if we don't hit 96 (forecast high) it will be brutal with this humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 wow what a storm - i didnt see this one coming until i heard the thunder. moving from the ne to the sw - an absolute deluge going on with a lot of lightning (not much wind). ditches and roads are covered in water and it is just pouring Lucky you on that one. I was wondering if it was hitting YBY. I heard a few rumbles of thunder earlier but that's about it. Glad you got it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I think your forecast high is 90 today, but with so many clouds, and the new developing cirrus shield aiming straight at you from the anvils in southeast Kentucky, I doubt AVL makes it. Likewise here the forecast is upper 90's , which is about 9 degrees higher than yesterday, and all Summer long the forecasts here have been several degrees too high. I think neither you nor I make our forecast highs, especially considering the cirrus shield coming right for us from eastern KY, and the current cloud deck. That would be a good bust. Haha!, Right on que GSP posted this in the morning update. Good call by you though I suspect one of your easier ones. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 820 AM EDT...WENT WITH OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE FA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS DENSE CONVECTIVE BLOWOFF WILL BE AFFECTING THE FA FOR A WHILE LONGER. ALSO ADDED SOME POPS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY WHERE IS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BNDRY. IN FACT...THERE IS YET ANOTHER LITTLE MCS OVER SE KY THAT IS HEADED THIS WAY. NOTCHED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE. I FIND IT HARD TO BUY INTO HITTING 100 ON A DAY WHEN MCS/S ARE DROPPING TO OUR WEST...PUTTING US UNDER A GOOD CI/AC DECK. IT WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID HOWEVER...AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAVY ADVISORY YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 dewpoint of 79 in Charleston now, 81 in Louisville. yikes. So far, my dewpoints have mixed down a good bit to 72. Mostly cloudy and 82 degrees. I don't think I'll be anywhere near 100 today...I'm expecting 92 or 93. If the cirrus debris doesn't thin or break much , then I'll having trouble getting past 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Near miss again yesterday afternoon.....this is really getting on my last nerve....I have been missed on all sides....I bet if you looked at a weekly rainfall map for Troup County, you would see me standing out with no rain ....compared to the storms that have missed me, the 5 minute rain I got Saturday was like the cloud sneezed!.....Ever hopeful that maybe today is the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I have a new page for my weather graphs that will probably replace my old ones http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_weather_graphs.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Full sun here at the office at Marietta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Full sun here at the office at Marietta Same! 86/76 with Heat Index of 96 at 9:55AM. Brutal, storms are going to miss to the west, high clouds will keep the temp down some but regardless it will still be in the mid 90's+ today I believe. I had a low of 76.5 at my home this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 As of 10am the temp is 88 with dp74..it's going to be a nasty day.hope everyone stays safe out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Lucky you on that one. I was wondering if it was hitting YBY. I heard a few rumbles of thunder earlier but that's about it. Glad you got it though. lol me too! its been a while since mby got a deluge. will be interesting to see how much rain fell - although the sun is coming out so i am sure the humidity is about to go sky high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Look at the DP's on this page, everything in the 77-82 degree range. Incredible stickiness this morning. These are all personal weather stations on the NW side of Atlanta. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=30064 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Not a drop, storms hit the brakes or did a hard turn to miss this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 My forecast now updated: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 My forecast now updated: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ Good discussion, Jeremy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I was just outside, and it feels so much better compared to yesterday. The dewpoint means everything. Its dropped to 72 here, 70 Hickory and 68 at GSP....so much more tolerable...even a slight breeze from the north, so obviously the morning MCC and outflow cooled air really helped to mix out as the air come down the mountains this morning. Next question is what happens after 2 pm or so? I'm leaning toward extensive Cirrus, but some breaks here and there, so there will be a wide range of temps...but each hour shows the anvil tops blowing and spreading out from eastern Tennessee, coming right over the western Carolinas and north Georgia. Its really a tough call as to how much sun can peak through now, but I'm very doubtful that 99 or 100 will verify anywhere in northeast Georgia, western SC or NC , especially west of Charlotte. Once east of CLT, the effects of the debris , plus the fact they're in a different wind flow (southwest), will make a huge difference. All things considered, I won't be surprised to see the Heat Advisories in this zone dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 My forecast now updated: http://www.sandhillswx.com/ nice forecast, it looks as if your finding your groove. It did not take you long that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 nice forecast, it looks as if your finding your groove. It did not take you long that's for sure. Thank you and yeah I definitely feel like I am. Hopefully I will be covering some interesting winter weather events down the road too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Lots of storms around the house in Emerson. I think its going to be pretty hard to take a run at any high numbers with all of them around. Currently 82.6/73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 DP's and Temps both rising, holy cow it's hot. HI over 100 now...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 15 years ago today I was experiancing my first real landfalling hurricane. By this time conditions were really going down hill fast, we actually took the eye here with a calm that lasted 30 mins or so, the winds either side of the eye were pretty nasty. For about a hr before we got into the eye winds were sustained in the 40-50 mph range I would guess with frequent gust into the 70-80's with a offical peak gust of 76 knts (87 MPH ), after the eye it was more like 40 mph sustained gust to the 60-70's but for 2-3 hrs it was pretty intense with lots of trees down, power out etc. Little did we know that as bad as Bertha was it would get trumped a few months later by Fran with sustained winds of 60-70 mph and gust over 100...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 Hawksfan/folks, I realize that regardless of how hot it actually gets, the conditions are really bad from a comfort/danger standpoint. Be that as it may, we have a real forecast problem for Wed. The 18Z Mon gfs has seemingly gone off the deepend with an alltime record tieing high of 105 F forecasted for KATL!!! :arrowhead: So, even if it were to end up 5 F too hot, KATL hits 100 F. Also, it is back to predicting extreme 850's..this time +24.5 C. Folks, if 24.5 C were to actually verify at 850, then, yes, 100+ F would be likely. However, the 12Z Euro has only ~+21.5 for its highest at 850. Also, when the 18Z gfs has the sfc at 105 F (2 PM on Wed. 7/13) under mostly sunny skies, the 12Z Euro has only upper 80's with showers in the vicinity! So, Hawksfan and others, based on these two models, what would you forecast for Wed's high at KATL?? Keep in mind that I'm on record as fcasting that KATL wouldn't exceed 97 F this week. Will I likely be right or wrong? The drama of this neverending hot summer continues. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL By the way, notice that today's 18Z gfs still forecasted a high of 99 F at KATL today! Tony, is there anything you can do about this neverending hot summer? Larry, my friend, you have already done the best thing possible to void Atlanta heat. You are now living in Savannah, where ocean breezes cool the fevered brow, and sea nymphs grace the vistas...if you go out to where the sea nymphs cavort I'm with you..I don't think Atl. sees 100 today, but they might get close. Here, at 11:20 I have 85 and high cloudyness, that will later translate into some cooling sun blockers, I expect. Atmospheric memory, I like to call it. The clouds remember how much they like it over TonyLand and will always return to the favored position...I hope, lol. I think I'll break 90 today, but not by so much as the "heat island". T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 DP's and Temps both rising, holy cow it's hot. HI over 100 now...... Are you still full sun? I'm cloudy and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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