FoothillsNC Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 My temperatures today, and generally the forecast temps from here to HKY CLT and this region have been below forecast all Summer long. Only made it to 90 here, 92 CLT, 93 GSP, 88 AVL, 89 HKY. I don't think this area hits 100 Tuesday, because of the extreme humidity and low level moisture, wet grounds, offsetting the strong ridge. The hottest weather I'm forecasting east of I-77 in NC esp. near RDU, south to FAY and into central SC. And again in the Tenn. Valley . Regardless, heat index values are going to be well over 100 for many places, and some areas could touch 115 in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 On 7/11/2011 at 10:40 PM, Itunis said: That sounds right. Notice how Cobb County kinda sticks out from the rest of the county? That's because areas like Marietta have enough of an UHI effect to allow the county to meet the >75 morning low criteria. There is sound reasoning going into the advisory area coverage, no need to bash FFC. I was outside this afternoon and while it was hot, it wasn't as bad as I was expecting. We were in the lower 90s with DPs in the lower 70s, nothing compared to the upper 90s with DPs close to 80 out in the Mississippi River Valley. Well someone is going to be wrong, either FFC or BMX and unfortunately I have to side with BMX in a head to head battle between the two offices. BMX felt the need to put advisories all along the border but FFC did not. Someone is gonna bust. Edit : interestingly BMX has areas in the Heat Advisory under the 75 degree threshold. The problem I really have is BMX and FFC not collaborating on advisories and warnings. It happens with winter storms and severe weather too. FFC also has a problem working with GSP. They need to learn how to work together so you avoid someone on one side of the border under an advisory/warning/watch and someone on the other not. It's really quite ridiculous and I have no problem bashing FFC/NWS for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 the MCC is still droppng south, looks like it will make it into NC before dying out. Extreme NE TN has to watch as well, since these things usually are at their strongest on the southwest side of the bow. We've seen these come into the southern Apps a few times this season, but this one probably is going to die quickly once it just enters northwest NC. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Watching that line of storms in KY/WV drop south and southeast. It's gonna to be a close one for me but if it holds up it looks like it will make it into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 The storm approching me has the most lighting I've seen in a long time. It is constant thunder and lighting!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 83/76 here...just like Charleston without any of the benefits of Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/11/2011 at 11:48 PM, Hawksfan said: Well someone is going to be wrong, either FFC or BMX and unfortunately I have to side with BMX in a head to head battle between the two offices. BMX felt the need to put advisories all along the border but FFC did not. Someone is gonna bust. Edit : interestingly BMX has areas in the Heat Advisory under the 75 degree threshold. The problem I really have is BMX and FFC not collaborating on advisories and warnings. It happens with winter storms and severe weather too. FFC also has a problem working with GSP. They need to learn how to work together so you avoid someone on one side of the border under an advisory/warning/watch and someone on the other not. It's really quite ridiculous and I have no problem bashing FFC/NWS for it. So you want to bash FFC for following the guidelines correctly but not BMX even though BMX has areas under the 75 degree temp??? Great logic. And why bash anyone for anything, especially since you have no idea what went into any of the decisions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Under a warning now but think most of the line will miss to the east and looks to be weakening somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Ive got an awesome view out of my front window of that warned storm over Calhoun. There is a beautiful anvil with the sun still lighting the mammatus. Lots of lightning looping around as well. Dont know how hot we got today but it didnt feel thàt bad. Just a little humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 12, 2011 Author Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/11/2011 at 8:37 PM, DixieBlizzard said: Glenn Burns got out his handy dandy thunderstorm forecaster for tomorrow and gave Peachtree City a "head's up" where thunderstorms would develop tomorrow before those areas reach advisory criteria. Actually, a heat advisory is probably one advisory that I could do without. It is still stinking hot! And a snow cone to the winner! YOu are right sir! Today for example I never got out of the 80's, nor have I for days. It clouds up in the afternoons before it gets to ultra heat time, and bingo, it cools off I even got about 14 minutes of light rain about 4ish. It has been a daily event that it clouds up and cools off before the worst can strike, and I'm betting on more of the same tomorrow...hope I'm right, or I'll have to have you design me an anti-heat advisory mojo thingy, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 1:05 AM, BIG FROSTY said: The storm approching me has the most lighting I've seen in a long time. It is constant thunder and lighting!!!! all lightning no rain, storm all over king, nc and no rain in it. never seen anything like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 1:11 AM, DaculaWeather said: So you want to bash FFC for following the guidelines correctly but not BMX even though BMX has areas under the 75 degree temp??? Great logic. And why bash anyone for anything, especially since you have no idea what went into any of the decisions? On 7/11/2011 at 11:48 PM, Hawksfan said: Well someone is going to be wrong, either FFC or BMX and unfortunately I have to side with BMX in a head to head battle between the two offices. BMX felt the need to put advisories all along the border but FFC did not. Someone is gonna bust. Edit : interestingly BMX has areas in the Heat Advisory under the 75 degree threshold. The problem I really have is BMX and FFC not collaborating on advisories and warnings. It happens with winter storms and severe weather too. FFC also has a problem working with GSP. They need to learn how to work together so you avoid someone on one side of the border under an advisory/warning/watch and someone on the other not. It's really quite ridiculous and I have no problem bashing FFC/NWS for it. Please read what my post said again, FFC has areas under 75 in the heat advisory also. I was careful not to lay all blame with FFC. I actually said FFC/NWS in terms of offices not working together is who I was bashing. I think the problem is with the NWS not a particular office. But you do consistently see a big areas void of WW in Georgia when you see them in SC and AL. The public pays for the NWS with tax dollars. I do feel I have every right to question why they do things the way they do especially when it makes no sense. Can you honestly say it makes sense for one side of a imaginary line to be under a watch/warning/advisory and not the other? I feel really bad for folks living near the GA/AL border because of this and I do not have a solution bu tI can recognize it seems to be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I wouldnt' be surprised at all to see convection the next several hours spark up some in NC and possibly northern SC, with the outflows coming from the earlier MCC and the cell dropping down 77 may get to CLT by midnight if it survives. This kind of pattern is interesting because with so much heat and humidity, even the slightest outflow can generate a storm, or a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/11/2011 at 6:51 PM, Hawksfan said: ok I give up... Atlanta now down to 91... Dobbins only at 93 at 3PM I'm just gonna sit back and watch it unfold, no more predictions......The GFS is really disappointing me right now. How can it be so off, something is seriously messed up with that model now. The GFS used to only psych me out in winter. Well apparently that's not enough it has to mess with me during summer too. Larry, do you have any insights on this issue? Hawksfan/folks, I realize that regardless of how hot it actually gets, the conditions are really bad from a comfort/danger standpoint. Be that as it may, we have a real forecast problem for Wed. The 18Z Mon gfs has seemingly gone off the deepend with an alltime record tieing high of 105 F forecasted for KATL!!! :arrowhead: So, even if it were to end up 5 F too hot, KATL hits 100 F. Also, it is back to predicting extreme 850's..this time +24.5 C. Folks, if 24.5 C were to actually verify at 850, then, yes, 100+ F would be likely. However, the 12Z Euro has only ~+21.5 for its highest at 850. Also, when the 18Z gfs has the sfc at 105 F (2 PM on Wed. 7/13) under mostly sunny skies, the 12Z Euro has only upper 80's with showers in the vicinity! So, Hawksfan and others, based on these two models, what would you forecast for Wed's high at KATL?? Keep in mind that I'm on record as fcasting that KATL wouldn't exceed 97 F this week. Will I likely be right or wrong? The drama of this neverending hot summer continues. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL By the way, notice that today's 18Z gfs still forecasted a high of 99 F at KATL today! Tony, is there anything you can do about this neverending hot summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 2:35 AM, GaWx said: Hawksfan/folks, I realize that regardless of how hot it actually gets, the conditions are really bad from a comfort/danger standpoint. Be that as it may, we have a real forecast problem for Wed. The 18Z gfs has seemingly gone off the deepend with an alltime record tieing high of 105 F forecasted for KATL!!! :arrowhead: So, even if it were to end up 5 F too hot, KATL hits 100 F. Also, it is back to predicting extreme 850's..this time +24.5 C. Folks, if 24.5 C were to actually verify at 850, then, yes, 100+ F would be likely. However, the 12Z Euro has only ~+21.5 for its highest at 850. Also, when the 18Z gfs has the sfc at 105 F (2 PM on Wed. 7/13) under mostly sunny skies, the 12Z Euro has only upper 80's with showers in the vicinity! So, Hawksfan and others, based on these two models, what would you forecast for Wed's high at KATL?? Keep in mind that I'm on record as fcasting that KATL wouldn't exceed 97 F this week. Will I likely be right or wrong? The drama of this neverending hot summer continues. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL By the way, notice that today's 18Z gfs still forecasted a high of 99 F at KATL today! With rain chances beginning to go up on Wednesday, and maybe some increasing cloud cover, I'll go with a high of 96oF for KATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 the 00z NAM is showing a pretty good setup in the Southeast and eastern Gulf region by 72 to 84 hours. Has a weak 850 low, and a surface inverted trough, and cool damming with a decent high pressure in Canada, strange for the middle of the Summer. But the GFS has been hinting at this as well. That would be good news for many areas that get showers, and north of the front somewhere in GA or the Carolinas ( or all ) will be the recipients of good stratiform, overrrunning, upslope type of rains. Its a perfect setup up for many places to get atleast some rain, and really good setup for GA and the Caroinas and eastern Tenn/eastern AL to get some really good rains. Its just the long range NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 2:35 AM, GaWx said: Hawksfan/folks, I realize that regardless of how hot it actually gets, the conditions are really bad from a comfort/danger standpoint. Be that as it may, we have a real forecast problem for Wed. The 18Z Mon gfs has seemingly gone off the deepend with an alltime record tieing high of 105 F forecasted for KATL!1!! :arrowhead: So, even if it were to end up 5 F too hot, KATL hits 100 F. Also, it is back to predicting extreme 850's..this time +24.5 C. Folks, if 24.5 C were to actually verify at 850, then, yes, 100+ F would be likely. However, the 12Z Euro has only ~+21.5 for its highest at 850. Also, when the 18Z gfs has the sfc at 105 F (2 PM on Wed. 7/13) under mostly sunny skies, the 12Z Euro has only upper 80's with showers in the vicinity! So, Hawksfan and others, based on these two models, what would you forecast for Wed's high at KATL?? Keep in mind that I'm on record as fcasting that KATL wouldn't exceed 97 F this week. Will I likely be right or wrong? The drama of this neverending hot summer continues. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL By the way, notice that today's 18Z gfs still forecasted a high of 99 F at KATL today! Larry, I think your in line with 97. Maybe a degree to two higher at most. In contrast to the 18z GFS meteostar you posted, 18z GFS MOS only has 99 on Wednesday. Off this topic I only hit 89.9 today so still no 90s for me yet in July but that should change tomorrow. I was able to get out and enjoy a 5 mile jog in Alpharetta at 4pm on the Big Creek Greenway today in the heat. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Hawkins Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I recorded my first 100 degree day of the year today. Looking for some rain the next couple days to cool things off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I think Atlanta will go over 97 this week. It was 97 in parts of Cobb today and it seems like it should be hotter tomorrow. I think what saved Atlanta today was an outflow boundary came through mid day and knocked the temp down a bit. The drama continues for sure. 82 degrees with a HI of 88 at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 I just wonder how much effect the debris field from this next incoming MCC in WVA has on temps in Va and the Carolinas tomorrow. There's bound to be opaque sky tomorrow, as opposed to full sun in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 The humidity is disgusting here now. At this hour the DP is 77 and the heat index is still 97. We hit 99 today despite showers and clouds hanging around. I bet we see 100 tomorrow. EDIT: ugh. now the DP is up a degree to 78. This is about as high as I have ever seen it get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 The gfs has officially gone bonkers. The 7/12 0Z has KATL at a new alltime high of 106 F on Wed. 7/13. It has 850's at a near record high of +25 C. I think I've had enough model entertainment for one day. So, on that insane note, nighty night. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Well, it looks to be another hot one here in Columbus and surrounding areas. The humidity wasn't too out of control here yesterday afternoon, only because we had a few showers roll through the area and some outflow boundaries blow through. Today, the better rain chances will be around my neck of the woods, but even then, they will be isolated in nature. I'm looking forward to Thursday/Friday, as a frontal boundary attempts to move in from the north. Hopefully it can provide us with some steady rain, but I'm not holding my breath... Also, as far as the GFS being ridiculously warm... I've noticed here in Columbus that the GFS MOS has done a pretty decent job, though it made us WAY too warm for the 4th, but the overall set-up didn't allow the ridge to build in like it did this time. If you only use one model, you will bust more often than not, especially in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Got .8" out of that storm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/11/2011 at 11:48 PM, Hawksfan said: Well someone is going to be wrong, either FFC or BMX and unfortunately I have to side with BMX in a head to head battle between the two offices. BMX felt the need to put advisories all along the border but FFC did not. Someone is gonna bust. Edit : interestingly BMX has areas in the Heat Advisory under the 75 degree threshold. The problem I really have is BMX and FFC not collaborating on advisories and warnings. It happens with winter storms and severe weather too. FFC also has a problem working with GSP. They need to learn how to work together so you avoid someone on one side of the border under an advisory/warning/watch and someone on the other not. It's really quite ridiculous and I have no problem bashing FFC/NWS for it. Are you happy now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 the MCC rolled around the front of the ridge, all the way to southeast Tennessee and w. NC.If the clouds don't dissipate quickly enough today, they are going to put a real damper on the high temp forecasts in Tn, n. Al, n. Ga and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 5:14 AM, GaWx said: The gfs has officially gone bonkers. The 7/12 0Z has KATL at a new alltime high of 106 F on Wed. 7/13. It has 850's at a near record high of +25 C. I think I've had enough model entertainment for one day. So, on that insane note, nighty night. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL Well if you think that is entertaining then just take a look at the extracted data for Gainesville GA...shows 102 today and 106 tomorrow....NOT gonna happen. http://charlie.wxcas...FC/GFS_Kgvl.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 Lol, the 6Z 7/12 gfs at KATL has an alltime high by 3 degrees for tomorrow Wed 7/13 with 108 F for a high!!! :arrowhead: I'm not talking about MOS, but rather the raw output as per MeteoStar. No, that is not a typo. The gfs has now been certified as being 100% insane. The accompanying 850 is still near +25 C. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 11:18 AM, MotoWeatherman said: Well if you think that is entertaining then just take a look at the extracted data for Gainesville GA...shows 102 today and 106 tomorrow....NOT gonna happen. http://charlie.wxcas...FC/GFS_Kgvl.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted July 12, 2011 Share Posted July 12, 2011 On 7/12/2011 at 11:11 AM, FoothillsNC said: the MCC rolled around the front of the ridge, all the way to southeast Tennessee and w. NC.If the clouds don't dissipate quickly enough today, they are going to put a real damper on the high temp forecasts in Tn, n. Al, n. Ga and the Carolinas. Yep....evidence is knocking on my door as some showers just popped up in the past 20 minutes in response to it approaching north GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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