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July Obs.


dsaur

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12Z GFS says it will hit 101 today in Marietta 98 Tuesday and 102 Wednesday. The 101 is a real possibility today but I do think it's over done by a few degrees.

Yeah the nearest WU station puts me at a temp of 91.5oF with a DP of 77oF. That's a heat index of 105oF! Don't think we will break 100, but our heat index could easily exceed 110.

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12Z GFS says it will hit 101 today in Marietta 98 Tuesday and 102 Wednesday. The 101 is a real possibility today but I do think it's over done by a few degrees.

1) -KMGE is at 92 F as of 2 PM. The 12Z gfs has them at a whopping 100 F at 2 PM! It is off by 8 F!

-KMGE's TD is at 72 F as of 2 PM. The 12Z gfs has it at only 65 F.

KMGE:

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Kmge

2) KATL: The 12Z gfs has them at 99/66 at 2 PM. Actual is 94/71 at 2 PM. the 12Z gfs is forecasting them at 100 F today for the high. I'm expecting more like 96-7 F.

Getting a nice shower now here in Savannah.

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1) -KMGE is at 92 F as of 2 PM. The 12Z gfs has them at a whopping 100 F at 2 PM! It is off by 8 F!

-KMGE's TD is at 72 F as of 2 PM. The 12Z gfs has it at only 65 F.

KMGE:

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=Kmge

2) KATL: The 12Z gfs has them at 99/66 at 2 PM. Actual is 94/71 at 2 PM. the 12Z gfs is forecasting them at 100 F today for the high. I'm expecting more like 96-7 F.

Getting a nice shower now here in Savannah.

I think dobbins will top out at 98 today which would only be three degrees off the high predicted by the GFS. We shall see but I think it's very likely. Many reporting stations around here are in the 94-96 degree range now. Hartfield is already at 94, they will be pushing the upper 90's very soon here.

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ok I give up... Atlanta now down to 91... :axe: Dobbins only at 93 at 3PM

I'm just gonna sit back and watch it unfold, no more predictions......The GFS is really disappointing me right now. How can it be so off, something is seriously messed up with that model now. The GFS used to only psych me out in winter. Well apparently that's not enough it has to mess with me during summer too.

Larry, do you have any insights on this issue?

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Lmao at FFC. Georgia is a lone island in a sea of Heat Advisories. Literally surrounded on all sides except the north.

edit : well maybe they are going to be one of the only areas to actually verify that heat advisory, or lack there of.

Here's much of the criteria used to determine watches, warnings, advisories, etc. Some of it varies by region.

http://www.daculaweather.com/spotter_criteria.php

HEAT ADVISORYHEAT ADVISORY

Issued when there is at least an 80 percent chance that daytime heat indices will exceed 104 degrees AND nighttime lows will be no lower than 75 degrees for at least 2 consecutive days.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING

Issued when there is at least an 80 percent chance that daytime heat indices will exceed 109 degrees AND nighttime lows will be no lower than 75 degrees for at least 2 consecutive days.

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WOW!!! GSP has issued heat advisories for tomorrow all the way up to the escarpment...it's been several years since they have done that. Look forward to their discussion...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

248 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-

510-SCZ004>014-019-120900-

/O.CON.KGSP.HT.Y.0001.110712T1500Z-110713T0100Z/

STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-

ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-

GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-

GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-

GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-

LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...

STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...

LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...

GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...

ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD

248 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT

TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE

CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 95 TO 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO

109 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN

POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR

EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT

STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE

AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND

HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS

IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT

SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN

EMERGENCY - CALL 9 1 1.

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FFC just issued a heat advisory!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

356 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

GAZ024-025-027-032>039-044>051-055>062-068>076-078>086-089>098-

102>113-120400-

/O.NEW.KFFC.HT.Y.0001.110712T1500Z-110713T0900Z/

BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-COBB-NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-

OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-

NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-CLAYTON-SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-

JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-

BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-

CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-JOHNSON-EMANUEL-MUSCOGEE-

CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-BLECKLEY-LAURENS-

TREUTLEN-STEWART-WEBSTER-SUMTER-DOOLY-CRISP-PULASKI-WILCOX-DODGE-

TELFAIR-WHEELER-MONTGOMERY-TOOMBS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARIETTA...ATLANTA...LAWRENCEVILLE...

ATHENS...EAST POINT...DECATUR...CONYERS...COVINGTON...GRIFFIN...

MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...SWAINSBORO...COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS...

DUBLIN...LUMPKIN...AMERICUS...CORDELE...VIDALIA

356 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A HEAT

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT

WEDNESDAY.

* THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON THROUGH

MARIETTA TO HOMER. THIS AREA IS EXPECTING TO HAVE HEAT INDICES

EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND MINIMUM

TEMPERATURES NO LOWER THAN 75 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY

MORNINGS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS FROM 95 TO 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS

EXPECTED. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED

ROOM AND STAY OUT OF DIRECT SUNSHINE. REMEMBER...THE

ELDERLY...VERY YOUNG...AND PEOPLE WITH HEART CONDITIONS ARE MOST

AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT. FRIENDS...RELATIVES... AND NEIGHBORS

SHOULD CHECK ON PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

WHEN POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING

OR AFTER SUNSET. KNOW THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION

AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN

POSSIBLE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER. TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR

WORK THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS

SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED

ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL

AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY - CALL 911.

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Heat advisory!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

356 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL

GEORGIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A very oddly shaped one I might add.

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Why on earth are areas west of Atlanta not under a Heat Advisory, but areas to our east ( Atlanta) and areas to our west ( Alabama) are under one ? We are sandwiched in between.

Very, very odd, I have no idea and frankly it makes no sense at all.

I'm gonna send Steve a PM and ask why....

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We have a forecasted high of 98 tuesday and Twc forecast says heat index near 115. NWS in Jax says we will be on the borderline for a heat advisory and our overnight low will be 76. I doubt accuweather real feel temp is right. Its doesnt feel like 118. . What are some of you alls forecasted temps with the heat advisory?

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Very, very odd, I have no idea and frankly it makes no sense at all.

I'm gonna send Steve a PM and ask why....

Glenn Burns got out his handy dandy thunderstorm forecaster for tomorrow and gave Peachtree City a "head's up" where thunderstorms would develop tomorrow before those areas reach advisory criteria. :arrowhead:

Actually, a heat advisory is probably one advisory that I could do without. It is still stinking hot! :sun:

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Glenn Burns got out his handy dandy thunderstorm forecaster for tomorrow and gave Peachtree City a "head's up" where thunderstorms would develop tomorrow before those areas reach advisory criteria. :arrowhead:

Actually, a heat advisory is probably one advisory that I could do without. It is still stinking hot! :sun:

What an utter and absolute joke. I know you were kidding but he is really a joke and I have seen his pinpoint forecasts before. He tries to get people to believe he can predict where a popup storm will hit 24 hours in advance.

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The only thing I can think of is that the areas not under a Heat Advisory will not be warm enough in the morning to meet the criteria.

That sounds right. Notice how Cobb County kinda sticks out from the rest of the county? That's because areas like Marietta have enough of an UHI effect to allow the county to meet the >75 morning low criteria. There is sound reasoning going into the advisory area coverage, no need to bash FFC.

I was outside this afternoon and while it was hot, it wasn't as bad as I was expecting. We were in the lower 90s with DPs in the lower 70s, nothing compared to the upper 90s with DPs close to 80 out in the Mississippi River Valley.

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That sounds right. Notice how Cobb County kinda sticks out from the rest of the county? That's because areas like Marietta have enough of an UHI effect to allow the county to meet the >75 morning low criteria. There is sound reasoning going into the advisory area coverage, no need to bash FFC.

I was outside this afternoon and while it was hot, it wasn't as bad as I was expecting. We were in the lower 90s with DPs in the lower 70s, nothing compared to the upper 90s with DPs close to 80 out in the Mississippi River Valley.

And even in Cincinnati the dp was near 80 today with heat index 110-115 !! Very unusual for that area I would think.

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