LithiaWx Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 It appears that some convection is going to try and push from NW Georgia into metro Atlanta if it can hold together long enough. I sure hope it does we have been really unlucky on the rain front here in NW Atlanta the last several days. We need it. Come on!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I'm beginning to wonder if clouds will help keep things a little cooler than forecast this week. I'm sitting at 85 degrees at nearly 4pm. I was expecting to be 90-95 at this time of the day. I notice FFC has lowered my temps a bit. Now they are forecasting the hottest temp all week to be 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Dew point here is 78F. with temperature at 89F = heat index being 103F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 I have my doubts about the GFS highs of 100 in many places of the Southeast, but the closer you get under the ridge in Tn and MS/AL I think its going to be very close to 100. Talking about the actual temps as opposed to HI numbers. This is going to be a dirty ridge, with many areas not even capped, so there will be plenty of shallow cumulus and moisture in the air to help offset the sun's heating, which is probably going to help shave off just a few degrees from the GFS forecast temps, as Larry's been showing. In NC piedmont especially, I really doubt of 100 on the thermo. thanks to extremely wet grounds around GSO-CLT region, but dewpoints could easily get into low 70s, maybe a few 75's in spots. There are going to still be places getting afternoons storms, and big ones at that, due to so much moisture and slow steering currents. The GFS later on has another backdoor front coming into the Carolinas and dropping into GA, with a good southeast Upslope component, which the model drops several inches of rain pretty widespread in the Savannah River Valley back to near ATL and into the Western Carolinas later next week/weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 That sure is a sharp cutoff in the precip in GA. .25-.50" for Atlanta, and 3+ just east of Atl ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 That sure is a sharp cutoff in the precip in GA. .25-.50" for Atlanta, and 3+ just east of Atl ??? One of the maps I saw had 5" in spots around Athens, I think for the 7 day total. Right now the dewpoints in western Tn , the bootheel of Mo. and eastern Ark/western KY are in low 80's. Heat Index of 107 to 110 all along that region. And to think tomorrow it looks worse. The middle 80's dewpoints are very possible there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Very quiet in here tonight. Nada here again today. On to tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Not liking our HWO from RAH... THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS COULD RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX BEING AS HIGH AS NEAR 105 TO NEAR 110 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Insane moisture and heat combo in the air right now. At midnight, Columbia is in with 81 deg and 78 dewpoint. 81 and 74 in Charlotte. I don't EVER recall a dewpoint that high for CLT. I'm assuming that recent rains / ground moisture are significant factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 I have my doubts about the GFS highs of 100 in many places of the Southeast, but the closer you get under the ridge in Tn and MS/AL I think its going to be very close to 100. Talking about the actual temps as opposed to HI numbers. This is going to be a dirty ridge, with many areas not even capped, so there will be plenty of shallow cumulus and moisture in the air to help offset the sun's heating, which is probably going to help shave off just a few degrees from the GFS forecast temps, as Larry's been showing. In NC piedmont especially, I really doubt of 100 on the thermo. thanks to extremely wet grounds around GSO-CLT region, but dewpoints could easily get into low 70s, maybe a few 75's in spots. There are going to still be places getting afternoons storms, and big ones at that, due to so much moisture and slow steering currents. The GFS later on has another backdoor front coming into the Carolinas and dropping into GA, with a good southeast Upslope component, which the model drops several inches of rain pretty widespread in the Savannah River Valley back to near ATL and into the Western Carolinas later next week/weekend. With all that moisture, is that a potential tropical development off SC spinning from a dying front and heading back west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 With all that moisture, is that a potential tropical development off SC spinning from a dying front and heading back west? Looks like it. The GFS has a mcc come into the coast of NC, then with a weak ridge to the east and strong onshore flow, it develops it into a weak circulation and moves it west. The GGEM does it too, but not Euro. Its probably overdone and convective feedback, but we'll see if future runs keep it. Onshore flow may still give good rains sometime between Friday/next weekend for the Southeast, with a ton of moisture and a dying front in the vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The 6Z GFS brought back the heat AGAIN for North Georgia. It has 25c 850 temps for Marietta on Wednesday with a high of 103. This is not in the 5-6 ay range anymore so the idea that's it is way off is less believable at this point imo. It's still hard to believe because the GFS has burned me a few times this year on temps being forecast way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 The 6Z GFS brought back the heat AGAIN for North Georgia. It has 25c 850 temps for Marietta on Wednesday with a high of 103. This is not in the 5-6 ay range anymore so the idea that's it is way off is less believable at this point imo. It's still hard to believe because the GFS has burned me a few times this year on temps being forecast way too high. How is your ground moisture there? I did see the GFS has spots of +24 and the 594 ridge comes and goes the next 2 to 3 days, but theres a lot of humidity and some areas have so much ground moisture that the heat will go into eating that up first, so I still have doubts of 100 actual temps being very common, but some places will see it, esp. in western GA , Al, TN and central SC. The heat index alone though will still feel terrible, with the GFS having dewpoints in upper 70's to low 80s in spots of Al and NC , and western TN/Ky at times. Those are extreme dewpoints, and they verified yesterday in western KY with Heat indicies of 115 pretty common. Comparing this heat wave with others, its a trade off. We've got high moisture this one, which cuts down on actual surface temps, but like I said, it may actually feel worse since the H.I. is through the roof. My nighttime lows have been staying the mid 70's and upper 70's may be coming tomorrow morning or Wed. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 How is your ground moisture there? I did see the GFS has spots of +24 and the 594 ridge comes and goes the next 2 to 3 days, but theres a lot of humidity and some areas have so much ground moisture that the heat will go into eating that up first, so I still have doubts of 100 actual temps being very common, but some places will see it, esp. in western GA , Al, TN and central SC. The heat index alone though will still feel terrible, with the GFS having dewpoints in upper 70's to low 80s in spots of Al and NC , and western TN/Ky at times. Those are extreme dewpoints, and they verified yesterday in western KY with Heat indicies of 115 pretty common. Comparing this heat wave with others, its a trade off. We've got high moisture this one, which cuts down on actual surface temps, but like I said, it may actually feel worse since the H.I. is through the roof. My nighttime lows have been staying the mid 70's and upper 70's may be coming tomorrow morning or Wed. morning. For Cobb County where Marietta is we have very dry grounds right now. We have missed out on the pop up storms for a week plus. This morning is starting out extremely hot, it will easily be the hottest day of the year so far in terms of heat index and might actually be the hottest day in terms or actual temp too. Everyone I have talked to this morning has been complaining about the heat and this is all before 10 AM. My car thermometer bounced from 86-87 the entire ride into work this morning. That is very hot for this early around here. It's officially already 87 at Hartsfield at the 9:55 AM update. It's going to be a scorcher today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 By my best count the Tri-Cities(TN /KTRI) have hit 90 degrees (or above) twenty-one times this year beginning in May. We only average thirteen days at or above 90F for the entire year. We have set five record highs since May including the all-time record high for the month of May. We will approach record territory tomorrow. It's not even late July or August yet. May was +2. June was +3.4. July is +4.1 already. It's amazing those departures aren't more extreme. Some cool nights and a cool stretch in June have helped modify those numbers. Truly staggering numbers for this area. Again, we haven't even hit the heart of summer yet and are just at the beginning of a new heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Currently 85 in Emerson. Our ground is still soaking wet from last Monday (3.5") and Tuesday (.7") so maybe it won't be too bad. This weather leaves me longing for football and colder weather. I have a question for some of you guys. We have some pretty epic damage around Emerson from a wet microburst last Monday. I've never reported anything to FFC so is this something they would care to hear about. It was pretty localized but there are a lot of trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 It's been equally humid here in the mountains, too, despite the GFS showing lower dewpoints. We have had dewpoints at or over 70 for about 48 hours now, and Asheville just set a record high min for July 10 at 71 degrees. At my house, I had a peak dewpoint of 76F on Saturday afternoon, and 74 yesterday afternoon. It's impressive to say the least. While our temperatures will not be as hot as nearby, the real kicker is the non-existent surface wind field (i.e., calm conditions) during peak heating. So 90 over 72 will feel awful, even here in the "cooler" mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 dewpoint is 75 at 11 am. ugh - it is steamy outside. not liking this week of weather so far. and last week was bad with 60%+ probs of rain all week. myb? maybe .25 if it was lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted July 11, 2011 Author Share Posted July 11, 2011 82.9 here at 11:00. Having wet ground helps, I'm sure, but we've been in full sun all morning, unlike that last few days' cloudy starts. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Going for 100 here tomorrow with heat index values from 110-115. However, the late week/weekend period is looking good for wetter weather and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 We're at 84 in Columbus... The morning fog helped keep temperatures down a good 3-4 degrees so far... At least there are storms possible in Alabama and maybe west central Georgia, otherwise it would be another boring noon show It will be interesting to see how warm we actually get the next few days. The GFS had us above 100 for the 4th and we didn't get close to that, while the Euro was mid 90s. Just a few days ago it again had us near 100, with the Euro about the same. I'm still waiting to see how it verifies, but I feel it will get to about 98/99 which wouldn't be too far off, but the HUMIDITY is ridiculous. Mind you, I grew up on the west coast of Florida, where humidity is a way of life. This is a totally different kind of humidity though, as there isn't as much wind... As we go into the weekend, it looks like we'll get into a wetter pattern (like Foothills mentioned above). The bulk of the heat will again over the Southern Plains, where the drought just keeps getting worse and worse for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Even hurting to run in the early morning during the next few days. This weather just sucks it out of you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Just updated my forecast. I think today was one of my better discussions so far as I find my groove! http://www.sandhillswx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Temp 89 DP 79! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 Temp 89 DP 79! Lawrenceville is at 77 dewpoint and you are at 79. Mine is only 72 right now. I'm curious as to why Dacula's DP is always higher than mine and higher than the reporting station near you in Lawrenceville. Are you near a lake or some form of water? EDIT : I just went to weather underground and looked at the stations around here and most are way higher than the 72 DP at Dobbins. It's more like 75-80 DP. I don't know why the official reporting station in Dobbins is lower than all the personal weather stations people have linked onto weather underground,. I honestly don't know which is correct. There are many, many personal stations all way over a 72DP around here but the official station is 72. Puzzling. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=30064 http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=GAZ032&local_place=2+Miles+W+Marietta+GA&zoneid=EDT&offset=14400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 here is the current soil moisture for the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 If you go to the NWS pages for current conditions... you'll only see updates every hour. Most METAR stations report every 15 minutes. What you see in my sig and on my website are updated every 8 seconds or so. No water around my yard! It's just hot! There are clouds just to my NW to SE, a thunderstorm to my south, which might be effecting some of the readings around the area. I currently have lots of clouds but get breaks where the temp shoots up. DP now down to 74.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 If you go to the NWS pages for current conditions... you'll only see updates every hour. Most METAR stations report every 15 minutes. What you see in my sig and on my website are updated every 8 seconds or so. No water around my yard! It's just hot! There are clouds just to my NW to SE, a thunderstorm to my south, which might be effecting some of the readings around the area. I currently have lots of clouds but get breaks where the temp shoots up. DP now down to 74.7. ok, that makes perfect sense. The personal stations around here are showing temps from 92-95 with DP's of 74-76. Really, really hot, HI already over 105 here. http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=30064 I work in Fair Oaks, reporting station recording 95.2 with a DP of 74. Fits really well as we have been rain free for many, many days around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 12Z GFS says it will hit 101 today in Marietta 98 Tuesday and 102 Wednesday. The 101 is a real possibility today but I do think it's over done by a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted July 11, 2011 Share Posted July 11, 2011 GSP stated this morning that heat advisories will likely be issued for Tuesday...given the temps and humidity, placing these type of products can be tricky. There's always the risk of dewpoints mixing out east of the mountains but indications are that this may be one of those rare occasions where dp's will hold steady if not rise some. I would guess that they'll have them hoisted along and south of I-85 for tomorrow...they may even consider the US 74 cooridor if model data indicates such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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