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June 29th - July 4th Severe Weather Threat


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

935 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN CENTRAL COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 931 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP

TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DOUGLAS PARK...OR NEAR CHICAGO...AND MOVING

SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

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Apparently Matt Petkovic had a tornado near Kenosha.

This guy's a complete jackass. He shouldn't be allowed to make official spotting reports, and should be blackballed from the whole chasing community. He apparently stole photos off the internet from chaser Mike Hollingshead, and also made numerous false reports to the NWS over the last year or two. Just found out that he was the one who reported the tornado here in Eire on June 15th which the NWS never confirmed. Why anyone would pull this kind of **** is beyone me.:axe:

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This guy's a complete jackass. He shouldn't be allowed to make official spotting reports, and should be blackballed from the whole chasing community. He apparently stole photos off the internet from chaser Mike Hollingshead, and also made numerous false reports to the NWS over the last year or two. Just found out that he was the one who reported the tornado here in Eire on June 15th which the NWS never confirmed. Why anyone would pull this kind of **** is beyone me.:axe:

I thought the Erie event seemed odd. Sometimes there will be an erroneous tornado report but that one was accompanied by actual damage reports.

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I thought the Erie event seemed odd. Sometimes there will be an erroneous tornado report but that one was accompanied by actual damage reports.

Yeah it was strange, especially since the NWS never did come out and publicly say they didn't find anything. I drove all over the damn place and couldn't even find tree damage lol. I was a bit pissed at myself for missing what I thought was a tornado right in my own town, especially since I had been filming it for almost an hour lol.

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This guy's a complete jackass. He shouldn't be allowed to make official spotting reports, and should be blackballed from the whole chasing community. He apparently stole photos off the internet from chaser Mike Hollingshead, and also made numerous false reports to the NWS over the last year or two. Just found out that he was the one who reported the tornado here in Eire on June 15th which the NWS never confirmed. Why anyone would pull this kind of **** is beyone me.:axe:

Ahh, I didn't know it went that far.

I did find it a bit suspicious how he went about things on the Erie day and that he didn't post any pics/video and/or share it with the NWS...guess I know why now.

I guess i'll add him to the growing list of dumbass chasers.

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Ahh, I didn't know it went that far.

I did find it a bit suspicious how he went about things on the Erie day and that he didn't post any pics/video and/or share it with the NWS...guess I know why now.

I guess i'll add him to the growing list of dumbass chasers.

Looks like the NWS is onto him also, not one tornado report.

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Svr warning this am for southern Lake and Porter County area. Cap expected to build but storm train goes up the length of the lake at present. Here on the eastern side of the jet configuration in Elkhart we had a nice lightning show to our west Thursday evening but most of the action was in Chi town area.

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Yesterday really was a sweet storm, the timing of it rolling in off the lake near sunset with towering CU all around an the sun setting to clearish skies in the far west made for some great cloud formations and the complex was a prolific lightning producer, just non stop CGs.

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Hmmm, the resemblance is striking...

000

FXUS63 KDTX 041411

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1011 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

.UPDATE...

THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS MCS TRACKED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA

WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS

AFTERNOON. AT 13Z...A WARM FRONT WAS NUDGING INTO SW LOWER MI.

THIS FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE

FRONT WILL USHER IN A HOT HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT LIFTS

ACROSS SE MI. FULL MORNING SUN WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION.

GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON

HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE

FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 90 OVER 70 YIELDS

ROUGHLY 3500 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. CAPE DENSITY ON THE SOUNDING

WAS ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP...THE 12Z DTX

SOUNDING DOES SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 750 MB.

THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL

SHORT WAVES EXTENDING FROM SE MN INTO NRN KS. THESE WAVES WILL

ROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY...LEADING TO SOME MID LEVEL

HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN MI. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING

ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA

THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL

LIKELY BREAK THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR STRONG

TO SEVERE STORMS. 0-6KM UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO

40 KNOTS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR LINEAR

MODES OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW

A SFC MESO LOW DEVELOPING OVER SE MI...WHICH WOULD INCREASE 0-3KM

HELICITY. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE

OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH IS NOW ROLLING INTO HURON COUNTY. THUS CAN NOT

RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUPERCELLS.

FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON

THUNDERSTORMS AND ADD A MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE. THE DEGREE OF

WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO WARRANT

BOOSTING MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE CONSIDERED A HEAT

ADVISORY FOR METRO DETROIT. THE DURATION OF HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY

HOWEVER BE BRIEF IF THUNDERSTORM ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING.

Again, doesn't that look familiar?

*One Day Passive Heat Wave

*Extreme Instability & Moisture

*Lack Of Well-Defined Trigger In A Weakly-Capped Atmosphere

*Capping/Subsidence Inversion

000

FXUS63 KDTX 011111

AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

711 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAKE FIRMER CONTROL OF THE

SITUATION LATER IN THE NIGHT. THERE IS EVEN A NOTICEABLE

DRYING/COOLING OF THETA-E IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER, SYMPTOMATIC OF

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO GO ALONG WITH THE

CUSTOMARY CAPPING INVERSION SETTING UP STRONGLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY

MORNING. THIS WILL ENSURE DRY BUT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT DOWN INTO SE

MICHIGAN. HIGHS YESTERDAY MADE IT WELL INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE

90S AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE

EQUALLY ACHIEVABLE HERE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX MAKING

A RUN AT 100. SLIGHT UPWARD TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS PACKAGE,

AND PERHAPS IN THE NEXT, MAKE IT MORE LIKELY THE HEAT INDEX WILL

REACH CRITERIA SUBJECT ALSO TO REFINEMENT OF THE DEWPOINT

EXPECTATIONS.

WITH ALL THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND WITH

THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING, SEVERE WEATHER

WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG WITH A

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB QUALITATIVELY INDICATING

STRONG DOWNDRAFT CAPE AS WELL. HOURLY NAM SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH

TROUBLE WITH THE CAP BUT THIS REMAINS A CONCERN DUE TO THE

SHALLOWNESS OF THE FRONT AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THIS FAR

SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THE

RESULTING WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILE IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR BUT THE CAPE

MAGNITUDE DOES MERIT CONCERN AND IS WORTHY OF THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

MAYBE the only caveat this time is we won't have that massive MCS blasting through SW Ontario again (though based on today's outlook and last night's pattern shifting eastward it's certainly not out of the question). I still believe that screwed us up too.

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This guy's a complete jackass. He shouldn't be allowed to make official spotting reports, and should be blackballed from the whole chasing community. He apparently stole photos off the internet from chaser Mike Hollingshead, and also made numerous false reports to the NWS over the last year or two. Just found out that he was the one who reported the tornado here in Eire on June 15th which the NWS never confirmed. Why anyone would pull this kind of **** is beyone me.:axe:

I met him once in Iowa (the day of the Mapleton tornado) and he seemed a little odd, but he also claimed to be a National Weather Service Meteorologist. He added me on facebook and the more I watched, the more I became suspicious as there is no mention of him working for the NWS on his facebook page and he chases like every day of the year. When he pulled up and talked to us that day in Iowa, he told us that he had just chased the Mapleton, Iowa tornado and that there were "dozens" of fatalities. Obviously that wasn't anywhere close to being accurate.

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