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June 29th - July 4th Severe Weather Threat


SEMIweather

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Day 2 to Day 3 Outlooks skip past SEMI....DTX AFD sounds a bit more promising

THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK

SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPING UNCERTAINTIES STAND...BUT

WILL SAY THE NAM THERMAL PROFILE IS GREATLY PREFERRED OVER THE GFS

(PECULIARITIES IN SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS). AS LONG AS CIN IS ABLE TO

ERODE BY THE AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF

A FOCUS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASED TO A HIGH

CHANCE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNFAVORABLE ISSUES WITH THE SATURDAY

SETUP...THAT BEING THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ALOFT

(RESIDE WILL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND IT IS POSSIBLE

CONVERGENCE COULD FALL APART ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST GUESS ON

INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THIS

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE

BRINGS A GOOD BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE

ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

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Day 2 to Day 3 Outlooks skip past SEMI....DTX AFD sounds a bit more promising

THE COLD FRONT WILL SINK

SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. CAPPING UNCERTAINTIES STAND...BUT

WILL SAY THE NAM THERMAL PROFILE IS GREATLY PREFERRED OVER THE GFS

(PECULIARITIES IN SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS). AS LONG AS CIN IS ABLE TO

ERODE BY THE AFTERNOON...THE SHALLOW FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF

A FOCUS TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASED TO A HIGH

CHANCE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNFAVORABLE ISSUES WITH THE SATURDAY

SETUP...THAT BEING THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY ALOFT

(RESIDE WILL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES) AND IT IS POSSIBLE

CONVERGENCE COULD FALL APART ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST GUESS ON

INSTABILITY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE UPWARDS OF 3500-4000 J/KG. THIS

DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE

BRINGS A GOOD BET FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY STORMS THAT INITIATE

ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN.

Saturday looks pretty good to me...going to be on the south edge of the good shear and the north edge of the cap. Just need a trigger...instability is plentiful so things should go severe if the weak cap can be overcome.

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HRRR isn't showing much of anything in the risk zone today. Then again, it did show discrete supercells firing in W ND last night.

Lots of sunshine right now in southern Manitoba. We'll see if the weak convection this morning was able to put down any low level boundaries to aid in development late this afternoon. If things can fire, there is a lot of energy to work with.

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Saturday looks pretty good to me...going to be on the south edge of the good shear and the north edge of the cap. Just need a trigger...instability is plentiful so things should go severe if the weak cap can be overcome.

This upcoming setup is similar to the June 4th setup for us, and we know how well that one played out.

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This upcoming setup is similar to the June 4th setup for us, and we know how well that one played out.

:lmao: I was thinking the same thing, but I still feel the cap was pretty close to breaking on June 4th (had a lot of TCU around 3 p.m. that day) so I guess we can give it another go.

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Nice cell/line with 74dbz up to nearly 30kft with the cell just east of Racine not too long ago.

Likely some nice sized hail with it out over the lake.

Racine just gusted to 66mph.

It's moving south-southwest, which may bring it into the city in about 2 hours.

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Alek should be pumped.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1456

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0807 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...GREATER CHICAGO METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 010107Z - 010130Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT

HOUR OR TWO ACROSS FAR NERN IL AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN IND /GREATER

CHICAGO METRO/.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING WWD

ACROSS SERN WI AND NERN IL. 00Z GRB RAOB SHOWED AMPLE ELEVATED

POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2400 J/KG MUCAPE/ ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A

STOUT PLAINS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. SLY SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO NLY

IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR

PROFILE ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED

STORMS--INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. RADAR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE STORMS

OVER SRN LAKE MICH DEVIATING TO A WEST OF SOUTH COMPONENT...FAVORING

THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS INTO THE GREATER CHICAGO METRO

OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. KRAC RECENTLY MEASURED A 57 KT WIND GUST.

LARGE TO PERHAPS VERY LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE

NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AREAS OF THE CHICAGO METRO.

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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 579

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

815 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS

PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA

LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM 815 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

TH

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 577...WW 578...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS OVER SRN LM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD

ACROSS CHICAGO METRO AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA

2500 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NOT ONLY VERY LARGE

HAIL BUT DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE INLAND.

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MKE radar showing what may be a couplet just NE of WAUKEGAN

as the RFD part skims the lakeshore

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK...

AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT.

GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM

CDT.

LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840

PM CDT.

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MKE radar showing what may be a couplet just NE of WAUKEGAN

as the RFD part skims the lakeshore

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK...

AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT.

GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM

CDT.

LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840

PM CDT.

Now a very intense couplet offshore...

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

826 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0820 PM WATER SPOUT 9 ESE WINTHROP HARBOR 42.44N 87.67W

06/30/2011 LMZ777 IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF ZION

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

826 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0820 PM WATER SPOUT 9 ESE WINTHROP HARBOR 42.44N 87.67W

06/30/2011 LMZ777 IL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SPOUT SPOTTED EAST OF ZION

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

ILC097-010145-

/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0106.110701T0121Z-110701T0145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

821 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

EASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM ZION TO BEACH PARK TO 11 MILES EAST OF BEACH PARK...

AND MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...

GURNEE...GRANDWOOD PARK AND WAUKEGAN AROUND 830 PM CDT.

GAGES LAKE...THIRD LAKE...GRAYSLAKE AND PARK CITY AROUND 835 PM

CDT.

LIBERTYVILLE...MUNDELEIN...LAKE FOREST AND HIGHLAND PARK AROUND 840

PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE LAKE

BLUFF...HIGHWOOD AND METTAWA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR WITHOUT ANY RAIN. DO NOT

WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER OR RAIN BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK

SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.

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