tacoman25 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 No love for DCA's anomaly? (It's +3.2, BTW) Cooler weather? Maybe... still normal to above normal, especially with clouds and decently high dewpoints keeping the mins up. Eh, everyone knows DC has been running much warmer. But a lot of people predicted significant + anomalies for NYC and BOS this month, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 DCA: +1.7 NYC: +1.0 BOS: +0.6 Cumulative: +3.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Eh, everyone knows DC has been running much warmer. But a lot of people predicted significant + anomalies for NYC and BOS this month, too. We/They made a forecast for the whole month, not three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 We/They made a forecast for the whole month, not three days this!, plus I really think the ridge axis that is positioned in the mid west may start to slide off to the east. Until this happens small troughs will be able to slide down from canada around the periphery of the HP. If the ridge axis remains in place then my predictions will be off, maybe not for DC because I think they excape most of the influences of the canadian troughs but areas like NYC and BOS will have temperatures closer to average where I and alot of others have them around 1-2°F above for the month. I wouldn't be surprised if DC runs 3°F above for the month, maybe even a chance for records if the ridge shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 ? The deadline was last night. There are currently no late entries. How is the deadline three days into the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Copy the pasta for July since Mallow's slackin. The rules are in the January thread. Late rule: you can be up to 3 days late, but for each day late, you get a 25% penalty to your monthly score. Forecasts are due by 11:59 PM EDT, Sunday, July 3rd Remember, all you have to do is guess the monthly departure for the following three sites. July... DCA: NYC: BOS: Haha, yes, I've been very busy recently. Not due 'til the end of the day (11:59 PM EDT), Sunday, July 3rd. How is the deadline three days into the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 We/They made a forecast for the whole month, not three days Yup, but there was a lot of speculation that the month would start off hot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted July 8, 2011 Share Posted July 8, 2011 No love for DCA's anomaly? (It's +3.2, BTW) Cooler weather? Maybe... still normal to above normal, especially with clouds and decently high dewpoints keeping the mins up. Yeah, and I'm not seeing all this colder weather. It's now BOS +4.0, NYC +2.0 and DCA +3.6 through 7 days. And today looks like more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Forecasts should be based on 1971-2000 normals. tacoman, if you want to adjust your forecast to account for that normal, please let me know. July forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 After 9 days ... DCA +3.3 NYC +1.8 BOS +3.3 would not expect much change today (current temps 92, 84, 80) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 lol @ me smack-talking the torchers. Early congrats if/when next week's heat verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 My predicted torch hasn't torched yet.... If it does.... My picks could be low. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 After a rare below normal day on the 14th, the anomalies are: DCA +3.6 NYC +2.2 BOS +3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Forecasts should be based on 1971-2000 normals. tacoman, if you want to adjust your forecast to account for that normal, please let me know. July forecasts: Why is that, since the NWS is going by 1981-2010 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Why is that, since the NWS is going by 1981-2010 now? Because it's easier on me and everybody else. It seems most people based their forecast on the 1971-2000 normals, probably out of habit. Moreover, unless I go in and re-code everything, my spreadsheet is using either one or the other set of "normals"... and since the first half of the contest was based on the earlier normals, it's just easier for me if the rest remains the same. As I said, I'll allow you to adjust your forecast to base it off the old normals if you want (since you obviously were making your forecast based on the new normals). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Because it's easier on me and everybody else. It seems most people based their forecast on the 1971-2000 normals, probably out of habit. Moreover, unless I go in and re-code everything, my spreadsheet is using either one or the other set of "normals"... and since the first half of the contest was based on the earlier normals, it's just easier for me if the rest remains the same. As I said, I'll allow you to adjust your forecast to base it off the old normals if you want (since you obviously were making your forecast based on the new normals). Ok, can you let me know the old July averages so I can adjust then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ok, can you let me know the old July averages so I can adjust then? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Remember also that the daily updates are based on that part of the month already finished, reported against the new normals I would presume, so they will not end up at the contest values. I was looking at the figures that I posted earlier today, and they would all be slightly smaller positive anomalies against the July means, but whether that applies to July 1-14 is another question. Because of this change, if I report these values late in the month, I will switch to the monthly values in the 1971-2000 table as the base, after the 25th. That should reduce the "surprise" value of the adjustment. This early in the month, I don't think it's a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 21, 2011 Share Posted July 21, 2011 My numbers will surely be off. The heat building is pretty rough right now along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 My numbers will surely be off. The heat building is pretty rough right now along the east coast. Looking at the advance forecast, I am beginning to wonder if I torched enough for this month??? As of right now, for August, I will be going with a bigger torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Feel pretty good about DC, but I'm looking way too cool for NYC and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Feel pretty good about DC, but I'm looking way too cool for NYC and BOS. My picks were the warmest on the board. And they may be too low. I just wish this summer would end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 22, 2011 Share Posted July 22, 2011 Ballsy. That would be the hottest month on record in Washington, if true. I feel pretty comfortable with my forecast for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Very ballsy. Would shatter the record hottest month in D.C. set last July. OhSnow - With only 8 more days left in the month, I may bust too low. Wait until you get a load of my August picks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 Anomalies for the period July 1-23 as reported on NWS website. It appears to me that the NWS is also comparing on a daily basis with 1981-2010. DCA +4.2 NYC +4.3 BOS +4.6 If the last eight days of the month including today averaged +2 then here's where the month would end up: DCA +3.6 NYC +3.7 BOS +4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 DCA .. +4.5 NYC .. +4.1 BOS .. +3.7 (July 1-26) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Very ballsy. Would shatter the record hottest month in D.C. set last July. I can't believe this came true. I play these forecasts way too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well I was way way too conservative.. :x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 29, 2011 Author Share Posted July 29, 2011 Well I was way way too conservative.. :x This will be a good month for the mid-pack people to catch up... though it looks like there shouldn't be too much shifting going on in the top 5-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 My Super Torch pick has got to win this month. Get a load of my August picks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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