18Z NAM coming north? GFS as well ---baby steps

[WinterWxLuvr]

If DC is to have any shot, 00Z tonight will need to jump quite a bit. It happened last year a few times. A couple of the storms had me fringed to the north until about 24-36 hours out. I remember Randy and trixie flipping out about it. Like clockwork all the models jumped north. Even beyond that, the best snows always set up 50-75 miles north of where the best band was progged.

This.

Precip in Minnesota looks North of where the GFS shows it not much but some

And this.

And, looking at the WV loop, you can see the SE movement of the moisture, but you can also see the east movement in it also. It may very well lay down that precip exactly where it is forecast, but with much more east movement that's going to be tougher to do, and more east movement would seem to cause that precip to be a little more to the NE than forecast. I don't think we'll see this get back to the solutions of Wed. afternoon, but after last year, I don't count anything out.

[Yeoman]

When do the weenie tags get implemented? We have a couple of strong candidates in this thread.

[yoda]

When do the weenie tags get implemented? We have a couple of strong candidates in this thread.

We are all weenies when waiting for our first snow

[chris21]

We are all weenies when waiting for our first snow

Very true

[WinterWxLuvr]

When do the weenie tags get implemented? We have a couple of strong candidates in this thread.

Why do you care? What's wrong with us "weenies" watching a model, or current conditions and hoping for the best. The models have taken a turn for the better over the past couple of runs. Sometimes it turns out good. Jan of last year is a prime example.

[SeVa]

Local mets here in South Hampton Roads are calling for flurries. If this north trend continues we might be in the running for 0.01in of the white stuff...

[Coach McGuirk]

Slater going 0-dusting for lower Hampton Roads and a dusting to an inch for NC.

[Wonderdog]

You might as well give me a weenie tag too. I like the fact that the clipper is exploding in the ocean closer and closer to the coast with each run

[mdsnowlover]

You might as well give me a weenie tag too. I like the fact that the clipper is exploding in the ocean closer and closer to the coast with each run

It helps too that instead othe lowf forming near sc its forming farther north. Maybe the low in new england is slightly further north now and that this is a trend??? time wil tell. I,m not expecting any snow in cent md , like bowie, laurel, columbia.

[mdsnowlover]

btw the ''weenie tag'' is by itself ridiculous. Let people be.

[Ian]

btw the ''weenie tag'' is by itself ridiculous. Let people be.

there won't be weenie tags here

i need a new model run stat

[yoda]

there won't be weenie tags here

i need a new model run stat

90 mins

[Riptide]

The national mosaic(radar) looks pretty obnoxious, the surface map says the low is way down in Nebraska though.

[WinterWxLuvr]

there won't be weenie tags here

i need a new model run stat

If your meaning is NOW, can't help you. But if it means statistic, many of the GFS ensemble members look even better than the OP.

[yoda]

If your meaning is NOW, can't help you. But if it means statistic, many of the GFS ensemble members look even better than the OP.

Oh? Please do share

[WinterWxLuvr]

Oh? Please do share

I wouldn't know how. I just looked at them on Allan's site.

[yoda]

I wouldn't know how. I just looked at them on Allan's site.

Oh ok. Do you have link?

[Riptide]

Oh ok. Do you have link?

Suspicious. The ensemble mean isn't really that impressive but he is probably talking about individual members.

http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html

[WinterWxLuvr]

Oh ok. Do you have link?

Sorry Yoda, I thought you had it.

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/index.php

Just click on the "Real Time Models" and then the GFS ensembles are on the right side of the page.

[mdsnowlover]

btw the ''wennie tag'' is by itself ridiculous. Let people be.

[yoda]

21z SREFs coming in...looks like they edged south again

[Coach McGuirk]

What's the link to the SREF?

Better question, is it even worth looking at?

[WinterWxLuvr]

21z SREFs coming in...looks like they edged south again

Yes it does.

[winter_warlock]

Yes it does.

yep so much for the move north lol

[Huffwx]

oz NAM is running out to 12 hours on twister data.

[derecho]

NAM looks to be coming in farther south than 18Z.

[Ian]

18z always plays tricks despite those curvy lines that say it's not that bad

[Huffwx]

NAM looks to be coming in farther south than 18Z.

Bingo...

[winter_warlock]

18z always plays tricks despite those curvy lines that say it's not that bad

for it to move north enough, its gonna have to move alot in 24 hrs . just dont think its going to IMO.

[Ian]

for it to move north enough, its gonna have to move alot in 24 hrs . just dont think its going to IMO.

i agree but i'd still like a flurry... it's been way south a while... that 500 low to our northeast isnt lifting