Scuddz Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 i hope the storms bust now! http://www.americanw...her-cooperates/ I need to find a good viewing spot for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 SUN Confirmed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I need to find a good viewing spot for this yeah i'd like to see it if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Sun here now too. From early this am until 10 minutes ago, it looked like it was going to dump. The black skies have turned sunny..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 What's sun, precious? I see sun too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 What's sun, precious? I see sun too We are all grasping for straws, sun is better then clouds if we want severe wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1041 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...W/ THE TAIL END ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ALONG THIS WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY...ONE MCS AFTER ANOTHER HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND DRIFTING TOWARD THE SE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS A BIT FURTHER NORTH YESTERDAY...AFFECTING THE MID MS VLY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WASH-OUT ACROSS AREAS TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WHAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION IS THE AREA IN BETWEEN...WHICH WILL COME IN THE FORM OF THE PASSAGE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SFC COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN YESTERDAY...W/ SKIES HAVING CLEARED OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A WEAK MESO-LOW HAS MOVED ACROSS THE NRN TIER COUNTIES THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ABOUT TO MOVE NE OF THE BALTIMORE AREA. JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY FROM THIS FEATURE AND LITTLE ELSE HAS BESIDES THE CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WE STILL HAVE SEVERAL MORE HRS TO DESTABILIZE AND ALL INDICATIONS POINT TOWARD BARELY REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMP /U80S/ THIS AFTN. AFTER THE CAP IS BROKEN...THERE WILL BE 1500-2500 J/KG OF SFC- BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP 20-30KT SHEAR IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. EXPECTING INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED CELLS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEST. NEAR-TERM HI-RES MODELS POINT TO THE LOWER I-95 CORRIDOR S OF DC AS THE FOCAL POINT W/ SOME OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS EVE AND PUSH ALL THIS ACTIVITY OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 nasty humid out there this morning. glad to be back inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I need to find a good viewing spot for this Same here - suggestions welcome that are close to MoCO area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It sure it hot and sticky. Plenty of time for the sun to do its thing. Seems likely at this point that some good boomers are going to pop. Gettin tired of the popcorn stuff though. Just can't seem to get an organized line or cluster together this year. That hasn't been a problem just a couple hundred miles west this year. Everytime I look at radar there is some state sized comlpex cruising around out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Same here - suggestions welcome that are close to MoCO area I like the bridge over the train tracks on Gude Dr. in Rockville. Close to home and a pretty good unobstructed view to the west. The bridge over 355 on 370 is really good but you can't stop there. Before they closed it, the old landfill off Gude Dr. was ideal. Outstanding view and no one to bother you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I like the bridge over the train tracks on Gude Dr. in Rockville. Close to home and a pretty good unobstructed view to the west. The bridge over 355 on 370 is really good but you can't stop there. Before they closed it, the old landfill off Gude Dr. was ideal. Outstanding view and no one to bother you. Did you mean east? Ideally I'll find a place where the cops wont be all up on me and someplace where I'm not attracting a ton of attention. I always miss these things due to lack of good places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermanchild Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Latest RUC/NAM with decent looking soundings for pulse-type storms to briefly go severe, but still wondering why the SPC decided to throw in the 2% TOR risk for the area (though N of us isn't too bad)... With the clearing, there WILL be a decent lee trough from W NC up into C PA. This will locally back the sfc winds east of this feature. LL moisture is great, mid level Lapse Rates are also going to destabilize as the ULL moves closer, and this feature will also provide 30-35 kts bulk shear from ~ DCA into Albany, NY. 2% seems reasonable based on this. I bust badly all the time but as long as we can pop some storms, given the high instability around the area from W NC into S NJ, the storms should grow and form into a line. I say storm initiation by 2:30PM along a line from North central NC into N VA, intensifying by 3PM, forming a cold pool-ish thing over N VA around 4:30PM and surging ENE to the coast. Simultaneously, I think the cold front will advance into C Pa by 4PM and pop storms there which will move E and intensify by 5PM as they form a broken line and move into N MD/ W CT by 7PM. Also, we have good low level shear right now... I would not be surprised if we get bumped up into slight from DCA into TTN (Trenton, NJ) by the next outlook. Also also... This is by far the BEST sunshine we have had to start a day in a loooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 With the clearing, there WILL be a decent lee trough from W NC up into C PA. This will locally back the sfc winds east of this feature. LL moisture is great, mid level Lapse Rates are also going to destabilize as the ULL moves closer, and this feature will also provide 30-35 kts bulk shear from ~ DCA into Albany, NY. 2% seems reasonable based on this. I bust badly all the time but as long as we can pop some storms, given the high instability around the area from W NC into S NJ, the storms should grow and form into a line. I say storm initiation by 2:30PM along a line from North central NC into N VA, intensifying by 3PM, forming a cold pool-ish thing over N VA around 4:30PM and surging ENE to the coast. Simultaneously, I think the cold front will advance into C Pa by 4PM and pop storms there which will move E and intensify by 5PM as they form a broken line and move into N MD/ W CT by 7PM. Also, we have good low level shear right now... I would not be surprised if we get bumped up into slight from DCA into TTN (Trenton, NJ) by the next outlook. Also also... This is by far the BEST sunshine we have had to start a day in a loooong time. This is an impressive post - good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Did you mean east? Ideally I'll find a place where the cops wont be all up on me and someplace where I'm not attracting a ton of attention. I always miss these things due to lack of good places. Yea, MoCo is a challenge. All the high spots come with really high trees. I'll bet living in the upper floors of the Washingtonian in Gburg has it's moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 With the clearing, there WILL be a decent lee trough from W NC up into C PA. This will locally back the sfc winds east of this feature. LL moisture is great, mid level Lapse Rates are also going to destabilize as the ULL moves closer, and this feature will also provide 30-35 kts bulk shear from ~ DCA into Albany, NY. 2% seems reasonable based on this. I bust badly all the time but as long as we can pop some storms, given the high instability around the area from W NC into S NJ, the storms should grow and form into a line. I say storm initiation by 2:30PM along a line from North central NC into N VA, intensifying by 3PM, forming a cold pool-ish thing over N VA around 4:30PM and surging ENE to the coast. Simultaneously, I think the cold front will advance into C Pa by 4PM and pop storms there which will move E and intensify by 5PM as they form a broken line and move into N MD/ W CT by 7PM. Also, we have good low level shear right now... I would not be surprised if we get bumped up into slight from DCA into TTN (Trenton, NJ) by the next outlook. Also also... This is by far the BEST sunshine we have had to start a day in a loooong time. We've had some other good sunshine days this year which have resulted in not much of anything. Also shear isn't all that great - mesoanalysis showing no more than 30kts Awfully bullish call there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Did you mean east? Ideally I'll find a place where the cops wont be all up on me and someplace where I'm not attracting a ton of attention. I always miss these things due to lack of good places. Just find a high school or somethig that's wide open. As long as you've got a decent view to the SE above the treeline you should be able to see it. I've got one or two areas around Columbia I'm thinking of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yea, MoCo is a challenge. All the high spots come with really high trees. I'll bet living in the upper floors of the Washingtonian in Gburg has it's moments. No doubt - rooftop access would be nice (with good east views). I don't know of any really nice places that I could get access to though. Rockville has a lot of those new buildings with penthouses but good luck renting those out haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Just find a high school or somethig that's wide open. As long as you've got a decent view to the SE above the treeline you should be able to see it. I've got one or two areas around Columbia I'm thinking of A lot of the high schools around these parts (like my HS) have trees blocking pretty high into the sky. How many degrees should I try to have of clear view (degrees of elevation that is)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 the setup isnt terrible.. we've just been burned a lot already so it's hard to be uber excited. i considered making a thread myself yesterday but held back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Is this a storm thread or a rockets red glare disco? lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 the setup isnt terrible.. we've just been burned a lot already so it's hard to be uber excited. i considered making a thread myself yesterday but held back. Good. You have been bad luck as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 the setup isnt terrible.. we've just been burned a lot already so it's hard to be uber excited. i considered making a thread myself yesterday but held back. Good. You have been bad luck to us this year. Although........so have Yoda and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Good. You have been bad luck as of late. Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Good. You have been bad luck as of late. i shouldnt share my thoughts on everything... i've done well on the whole this season.. i was accurate with last week for the most part. still, we have a stacked low with a crappy surface reflection... im hopeful but not confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Good. You have been bad luck as of late. Good. You have been bad luck to us this year. Although........so have Yoda and I. I smell bannings in your future. Ian, I still you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 With the clearing, there WILL be a decent lee trough from W NC up into C PA. This will locally back the sfc winds east of this feature. LL moisture is great, mid level Lapse Rates are also going to destabilize as the ULL moves closer, and this feature will also provide 30-35 kts bulk shear from ~ DCA into Albany, NY. 2% seems reasonable based on this. The 2% to our N is fine... I just don't see DC/MD/NoVA getting in on the TOR risk. LL winds do some veering in the lowest levels, but wind speeds themselves are weak. combine that with a lack of stronger UL winds and you've got pulsers that can't stay organized long enough to get strong rotation. Going into NoPA/SoNY, you hit crappy lapse rates that will keep updrafts relatively weak, which will also work against tornado development (though in areas in PA with higher CAPE and better UL support we could see a TOR). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 The best part about today is even if the storms don't fire at all the next couple of days are going to be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 i shouldnt share my thoughts on everything... i've done well on the whole this season.. i was accurate with last week for the most part. still, we have a stacked low with a crappy surface reflection... im hopeful but not confident. I didn't say you have been wrong. Last week was marginal and rightfully tempered thoughts ruled. Today's difference to me is full sun since 8am. That is a luxury we seem to have been lacking on most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I didn't say you have been wrong. Last week was marginal and rightfully tempered thoughts ruled Mark busted. Today's difference to me is full sun since 8am. That is a luxury we seem to have been lacking on most days. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.