HoCoSnowBo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Tomorrow's set up is looking sort of meh right now... just hoping for a normal thunderstorm. A nice downpour and some thunder, is that too much to ask for these days? What are you guys thinking about tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 A non Ian/Ellinwood severe thread? Whoa. I just want precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 A non Ian/Ellinwood severe thread? Whoa. I just want precip. I thought I would have seen one by now, so I just started one instead! But yes, my lawn has been telling me the same thing for weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z high-res WRFs look decent. NAM is fair. GFS looks crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 A non Ian/Ellinwood severe thread? Whoa. I just want precip. Maybe this is what we need, a change for the area, LOL If it rains, HoCoSnowBo is the new thread starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I just want convective precip> .0.05" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Maybe this is what we need, a change for the area, LOL If it rains, HoCoSnowBo is the new thread starter Hey, worth a shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...THE LATEST NAM WHICH WAS MUCH SLOWER IN ITS EARLIER RUNS FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TOMORROW...HAS TAKEN THE LEAD AND NOW BRINGING SEVERAL WAVES OF SFC AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE - STARTING JUST AFTER DAWN. LOCAL HRRR RUNS SHOW THE CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF STORMS FROM CNTRL OH TO WRN NC DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...W/ ANOTHER SIMILAR LINE MOVING IN FROM BEHIND. WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL A DAY AWAY /CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NRN PLAINS-WRN GREAT LAKES REGION/... CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF AND WEAK EMBEDDED CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED...THE THICK CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE WILL KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY STABLE. A LIGHT SLY WIND AND WEAK MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRING DEWPOINTS BACK UP INTO THE U60S AND L70S...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WHATEVER MINIMAL INSTABILITY EXISTS. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE SITUATION SYNOPTICALLY - THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. DOWN ACROSS THE SRN APLCNS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A KINK IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO ACT AS A BETTER LIFTING MECHANISM - WHILE THE ENERGY OVER THE MID ATLC REGION WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND DISPERSED. AS THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS /BEHIND THE INITIAL BANDS OF MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY/...SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. BY THIS TIME...PARTIAL CLEARING AND MORE LOW LEVEL HEATING DURING THESE BRIEF FEW HRS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW TSTMS /SOME STRONG-SEVERE/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 May the force be with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 May the force be with us Hard to see the storm future is yes yes... clouded my vision is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 A non Ian/Ellinwood severe thread? Whoa. I just want precip. That's because there's absolutely no reason to have this thread... should have just kept it in the gen. obs. and/or gen. severe threads. Y'all can have fun spending 2-3 pages complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Latest RUC/NAM with decent looking soundings for pulse-type storms to briefly go severe, but still wondering why the SPC decided to throw in the 2% TOR risk for the area (though N of us isn't too bad)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 That's because there's absolutely no reason to have this thread... should have just kept it in the gen. obs. and/or gen. severe threads. Y'all can have fun spending 2-3 pages complaining. I'm going to laugh, and laugh hard, when we actually see something today. And 2-3 pages of complaining is better than 15+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I'm going to laugh, and laugh hard, when we actually see something today. So will I This damn summer convection! Vis. Sat. is okay this morning... a bit clearer than I though it'd be. We'll have to watch the cloud deck out west and see if/when that pushes further east into our local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 As always, HRRR showing love -- http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr%3A&runTime=2011062809&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR+Model+Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 As always, HRRR showing love -- http://rapidrefresh....omain=t3&wjet=1 Typically you don't trust a model that has initialized so poorly. HRRR is showing a nice squall line rolling through the area right now and the radar is almost a clean sweep for hundreds of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Typically you don't trust a model that has initialized so poorly. HRRR is showing a nice squall line rolling through the area right now and the radar is almost a clean sweep for hundreds of miles. Did notice that, just nice to look at when your as desperate for rain as I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Typically you don't trust a model that has initialized so poorly. HRRR is showing a nice squall line rolling through the area right now and the radar is almost a clean sweep for hundreds of miles. Did it ever occur to that perhaps the model is right, and reality is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Did it ever occur to that perhaps the model is right, and reality is wrong? I always prefer to watch models very closely than deal with my reality. The EM (Elle Macpherson) model has always been one of my favs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I always prefer to watch models very closely than deal with my reality. The EM (Elle Macpherson) model has always been one of my favs. Indeed. It seems to have a bias to forecast fog boobies, but I can live with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Sun! lies. DCA says there are 4 layers of clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 lies. DCA says there are 4 layers of clouds Mostly cloudy.. Lolz. Partly at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Sun's out downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Some fairly decent looking boomers popping on the eastern shore and in delaware. Looks like the southermost cell is passing through Cambridge right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Must be a weak vorticity amongst those coastal showers/storms... broad rotation with the center moving due E along the MD/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 SUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 SUN L-I-E-S! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 i hope the storms bust now! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/20755-ec-rocket-launch-tonight-if-weather-cooperates/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 L-I-E-S! no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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