HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I'd caution against thinking that this will strengthen as long as it is over water...once it gets a little closer to landfall it could start to degrade. We saw that with Karl last year and definitely shouldn't underestimate the effects of land interaction on the western side of the BOC. Yeah, Karl fell apart, but there are also many examples of hurricanes that came ashore S of Tampico that were on strengthening trends at landfall-- including Dean 2007, Stan 2005, Gert 1993, and Diana 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Yeah, Karl fell apart, but there are also many examples of hurricanes that came ashore in the S of Tampico that were on strengthening trends at landfall-- including Dean 2007, Stan 2005, Gert 1993, and Diana 1990. sure...just pointing out that the just because there are x number of hours until landfall doesn't always equate to x hours of strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 sure...just pointing out that the just because there are x number of hours until landfall doesn't always equate to x hours of strengthening. Of course not. But the forecast here is strengthening. Lord knows-- intensity forecasts are such a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 The big area of light winds reported by recon (40nmi across) is showing up on IR as a warm spot. Bands are trying to wrap around, but for anything significant to happen, the "eye" has to contract. Yeah for sure. I'd like to see more heavy convection within the RMW...that convection further out, while nice looking, does little to nothing for intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Yeah, Karl fell apart, but there are also many examples of hurricanes that came ashore in the S of Tampico that were on strengthening trends at landfall-- including Dean 2007, Stan 2005, Gert 1993, and Diana 1990. Yep, and Dolly 1996, Debby 1988... Actually makes me wonder why Karl was "special," as I don't think weakening prior to landfall is the norm in this region. Edit: Lorenzo weakened slightly just before landfall. Still far more BOC storms strengthened up to landfall than weakened, but I see Kush's point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Another point re: CoC. With what we've seen today, I wouldn't be surprised to see further relocation a bit N when the next RECON mission arrives. As can be the case in these loose cyclones in the formative stages, center relocations can be common without consolidation. The models were never keen on Arlene being a wound up cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Good night Arlene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Nice to start the season with a bonafide TC. No subtropical mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 While Arlene has organized nicely today, but looking at the latest microwave... Its still doesn't have quite the inner core to think it has a legitimate chance at becoming a hurricane. In addition an IR loop shows the storm starting to speed up again, so we are looking at another 6 hours of so over open water before it makes landfall. I'm thinking we only see 50-55 knots at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Latest NHC forecast takes it to 60 knots before landfall... although I think it will the making landfall significantly before 12 hours like the NHC has in their latest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Latest NHC forecast takes it to 60 knots before landfall... although I think it will the making landfall significantly before 12 hours like the NHC has in their latest forecast. Agree....I think LF is about 8 hrs. away + 2 hrs. Your take on this system has been very good, right from the get go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really odd convective pattern. Just a weird-looking storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really odd convective pattern. Just a weird-looking storm: Those are some cold cloud tops. Where is the center of it at though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really odd convective pattern. Just a weird-looking storm: Yea I agree it looks strange... almost still looks monsoon-like in nature with the large mass of convection extending southward well into Central America. It seems like the convection is lining up with the very strong low level flow that is emanating well eastward from the center (widespread 35-40 knot winds at 850mb). In any event the elongated convective pattern certainly doesn't scream development tonight, and I suspect the circulation of Arlene is still rather broad and not really consolidating in its final hours before landfall. Here are my thoughts on Arlene on my blog, although the focus is staring to shift towards what might happen after, since it appears we might be entering into a very favorable MJO regime for the next couple of weeks. http://philstropical....wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Really odd convective pattern. Just a weird-looking storm: Lolllz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Looks like the center is just about to sweep ashore. As always, it looks like it would have become a 'cane if it had had just a little more time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I gotcha, but actually, I see a big difference between a 50-kt TS and a 70-kt 'cane. And, really, it can be said about any decently organized cyclone that the exact intensity isn't that important unless you're in the core. I'm really surprised how this is pulling together. The slowing down is a slightly ominous sign, as the amount of time over water has always been the limiting factor with this one: The presentation and appearance a lot different on satellite, of course...as are the impacts at/close to the landfall point but you go outside that immediate spot and it's a breezy rainstorm 40 miles on either side of the center. With that said, it's a nice debut storm for the year and thankfully wasn't a strung out halfastorm in the NE Gulf where 80% of the convection was east of the center with 40 mph max winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 700 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011 ...CENTER OF ARLENE OVER THE CABO ROJO AREA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 97.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM N OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Off the snide as far as named storms, generally beneficial rains for the lower RGV and Northeast Mexico, and a cool sounding with 2.65" PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 if only there had been more time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 This was painstakingly close to a hurricane... the inner core was just developing as it moved inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Same story different year. I bet frictional convergence from land helped tighten up the circulation, giving the illusion that this was about to become a cane if it just had a little more time. It's quite possible that even if it was over open water now it wouldn't be a cane yet, since the circulation would be loose. Remember, Fay was a teasing mess right until it hit Florida, at which point it finally developed an inner core due to frictional convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Same story different year. I bet frictional convergence from land helped tighten up the circulation, giving the illusion that this was about to become a cane if it just had a little more time. It's quite possible that even if it was over open water now it wouldn't be a cane yet, since the circulation would be loose. Remember, Fay was a teasing mess right until it hit Florida, at which point it finally developed an inner core due to frictional convergence. Oh my god you have a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Oh my god you have a degree. Walmart was having a sale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Kept it as a 35 knot storm this advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2011/ARLENE/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastLow Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I love that wispy cirrus/blown out look dead storms get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I love that wispy cirrus/blown out look dead storms get. If it quickly moves over the mountains it happens fast like Alex last year, It decoupled rapidly and the convection disolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 It was a decent looking storm while it lasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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