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Tropical Depression Arlene


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The new Discussion is a tad on the blah side, with the intensity forecast roughly the same-- i.e., calling for a of hurricane force or just under that prior to landfall.

i should point out that the new package does not reflect these most-recent recon obs.

Very typical for the NHC to do this when there isn't enough information yet. Totally won't be surprised if a special advisory is issued within the next 90 minutes if Arlene is indeed found to have strengthened.

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Looks like the center is around 21.6N and 95.7W... so it seems like the center relocated a bit northeast of the last advisory, which seems to agree with visible imagery.

On second thought, it looks like recon missed the center the first go around... latest obs suggest the center is further southeast of where it made the pass in the image below.

qq1unk.png

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Very typical for the NHC to do this when there isn't enough information yet. Totally won't be surprised if a special advisory is issued within the next 90 minutes if Arlene is indeed found to have strengthened.

Most of the time they already have an advisory written up and it takes time to redo things when new information comes in. That's why you often see special advisories right after a regular advisory is issued when new recon information comes in, because it gives them time to right out a new discussion rather than attempt to mash the old information with the new readings. They have deadlines to meet, and putting an advisory late because you are waiting on more information makes it very difficult to meet other deadlines for watches and warnings.

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The new Discussion is a tad on the blah side, with the intensity forecast roughly the same-- i.e., calling for a of hurricane force or just under that prior to landfall.

I should point out that the new package does not reflect these most-recent recon obs.

The bigger story with this is rain...as is typical of the slow moving storms of this type...some parts of Mexico could get 15"-20"...it doesn't matter if the storm is 50 mph of 80 unless you're right near the center with Arlene...and that may impact parts of Tampico but it's not like they've never been hit with a TS or Cat 1 before...

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 21:25Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011

Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3 seeall.png

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:11:20Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°20'N 95°30'W (21.3333N 95.5W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the ESE (112°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 163° at 64kts (From the SSE at ~ 73.6mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 20:26:50Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS

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Looks like a moderate-strong TS (or hurricane if you go with those SMRF winds, though contaminated) with 996mb, and a further NE COC.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 21:25Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011

Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3 seeall.png

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 21:11:20Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°20'N 95°30'W (21.3333N 95.5W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 163 miles (262 km) to the ESE (112°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 163° at 64kts (From the SSE at ~ 73.6mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 49 nautical miles (56 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 20:26:50Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS

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Idk about that...read the last line...convective elements can cause gusts unrepresentative of the true strength of the storm...

This.

If they don't get those types of winds on the next pass without the convective bursts, then this is likely just a 50 KT storm (and they'll probably just wait until 8 PM to update that statistic)

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000

WTNT61 KNHC 292231

TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE

A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND

HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA

NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE

TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS

ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS

SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.3N 95.6W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$

FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

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The bigger story with this is rain...as is typical of the slow moving storms of this type...some parts of Mexico could get 15"-20"...it doesn't matter if the storm is 50 mph of 80 unless you're right near the center with Arlene...and that may impact parts of Tampico but it's not like they've never been hit with a TS or Cat 1 before...

I gotcha, but actually, I see a big difference between a 50-kt TS and a 70-kt 'cane. And, really, it can be said about any decently organized cyclone that the exact intensity isn't that important unless you're in the core.

I'm really surprised how this is pulling together. The slowing down is a slightly ominous sign, as the amount of time over water has always been the limiting factor with this one:

post-19-0-58292600-1309387202.jpg

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I'm willing to bet that the blowup in convection helped to pull the llcc more to the east/slow it down in order for the system to better consolidate.

I know Josh hates it, but if Arlene had about one more day or so before landfall, this could have become a monster.

ahh, now it's hurricane season!

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Still a very loose center, RMW is a good ways out, and there is a rather large region of <25kt FL winds around the center.

Going to jump north as well, at 21.5 with the most recent set of obs, and winds are still out of the SW

EDIT, with newest obs, a very large region of <12kt at flight level, and center looks to be much closer to 22N then 21N, though the center is very broad.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 23:20Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011

Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 23:11:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°45'N 95°50'W (21.75N 95.8333W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 133 miles (215 km) to the ESE (104°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 178° at 56kts (From the S at ~ 64.4mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 399m (1,309ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 392m (1,286ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 15 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 20:26:50Z

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

MAX WINDS FL AND SFC ASSOC WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM CNTR.

LARGE AREA IN CNTR APPROX 40 NM ACROSS OF WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS

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I'd caution against thinking that this will strengthen as long as it is over water...once it gets a little closer to landfall it could start to degrade. We saw that with Karl last year and definitely shouldn't underestimate the effects of land interaction on the western side of the BOC.

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