OKpowdah Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 ADT numbers gaining some ground ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 JUN 2011 Time : 154500 UTC Lat : 21:11:59 N Lon : 95:47:19 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.2 / 994.6mb/ 49.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.2 3.6 4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Kudos to the higher resolution Euro runs of two days ago that had Arlene now getting down to 1000-1001 mb when all others were a good bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011 100 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011 ...ARLENE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 95.9W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ARLENE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Despite the near convection around the center, the storm hasn't really gotten a well defined inner core. Time is running out thanks to the southward relocation this morning. We are looking at 12-18 hours before landfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 ADT Raw T# up to 4.1...which would correspond to 65kt winds or a low end Cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 ADT Raw T# up to 4.1...which would correspond to 65kt winds or a low end Cat 1 ADT gets excited around deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 SSD has T3.0 at 1745z, which is probably closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Definitely dealing with a 50kt storm now IMO ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 JUN 2011 Time : 174500 UTC Lat : 21:11:56 N Lon : 96:00:30 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.6 / 989.5mb/ 57.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.6 4.0 4.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 SSD has T3.0 at 1745z, which is probably closer to reality. TAFB gave it T3.5, which equals 55 kts. NHC will probably split the difference and go 50 kts at the next advisory, pending aircraft data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Wow, it's looking really good right now. I wonder if it can pull an Alex (not as much) and strengthen a lot right before landfall. Alex had a lot more room, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 18Z Obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Mission 3 departed recently...hopefully we'll get new data before 5 EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Mission 3 departed recently...hopefully we'll get new data before 5 EDT Guessing: They'll find Arlene to be at 998 mbs and 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Mission 3 departed recently...hopefully we'll get new data before 5 EDT The fix is suppose to be around that time, so my guess is we either see a late advisory (less likely) or an estimated advisory with a 530 special update (more likely) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Guessing: They'll find Arlene to be at 1001 mbs and 60 mph. Why would the pressure be higher? I agree the latest visible and inferred looks impressive, but recon and microwave are showing the center is still pretty broad. We are going to need a northward jog to see anything beyond 60mph because this system is running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I'm still not sure how entirely useful this product is, but at least you can tell the convection is intense. Unfortunately, we're not going to get a new MW pass until after 5pm ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Why would the pressure be higher? I agree the latest visible and inferred looks impressive, but recon and microwave are showing the center is still pretty broad. We are going to need a northward jog to see anything beyond 60mph because this system is running out of time. Oops, I didn't see the NHC update. I'm going to guess 998 mbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Why would the pressure be higher? I agree the latest visible and inferred looks impressive, but recon and microwave are showing the center is still pretty broad. We are going to need a northward jog to see anything beyond 60mph because this system is running out of time. its not necessarily stacked to where we can see any serious RI in my opinion. It looks like there's 2 centers with 1 off to the north of the official one. Its looking very healthy tho, probly a 65mph storm at landfall, threatening hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 18z SHIPS RI probs even higher Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It would appear that Recon is having communication problems. With it 1935GMT now, the most recent set of obs is from 1900, and the most recent obs had one observation which was repeated 10 times in a row (excluding time), then a jump, then a few updates where it was not stuck, then ending with observations repeating again 000 URNT15 KNHC 291903 AF309 0301A ARLENE HDOB 05 20110629 185030 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185100 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185130 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185200 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185230 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185300 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185330 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185400 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185430 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185500 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0445 -150 -243 071008 008 /// /// 03 185530 2855N 09021W 3926 07760 0441 -153 -226 070010 014 /// /// 03 185600 2803N 09109W 3927 07744 0432 -160 -214 074014 014 /// /// 03 185630 2801N 09111W 3927 07747 0433 -160 -216 076014 014 /// /// 03 185700 2759N 09113W 3926 07747 0432 -160 -215 073014 015 /// /// 03 185730 2757N 09115W 3926 07747 0431 -159 -214 065015 016 /// /// 03 185800 2755N 09117W 3927 07751 0433 -160 -213 072015 015 /// /// 03 185830 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 071015 015 /// /// 03 185900 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03 185930 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03 190000 2753N 09119W 3926 07750 0433 -160 -215 069014 015 009 000 03 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It would appear that Recon is having communication problems. With it 1935GMT now, the most recent set of obs is from 1900, and the most recent obs had one observation which was repeated 10 times in a row (excluding time), then a jump, then a few updates where it was not stuck, then ending with observations repeating again - ; This happens occasionally, and it may be related to why this particular mission was delayed. I believe as long as the NHC is able to get some information (no matter how spastic), the mission will continue. Sometimes these things smooth out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 18Z SHIPS RI Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 47% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 23% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Center appears to be to the north of the strongest convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Recon is descending... we should have a center fix within the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 29, 2011 Author Share Posted June 29, 2011 Not in the center yet, but 64 knot flight level wind just recorded! We should see at least 50 knots at 5pm. Also 67 knot SFMR but rain contaminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 They kept it 45kt for the advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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