HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 So no big surprises. Matches well with recent advisories, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Much improved structure from 12 hrs ago...Looks like the latest center fix is a bit south than previously estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Good morning Arlene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 just looking at the visible it looks like shear is very low(some on the north side) with high pressure building over it..(clouds fanning out aloft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Decent-looking this morning. Has a cinnabun look, but much better, more-symmetric convection-- including a nice flareup near or over the center: Where is the CoC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Where is the CoC? As per the latest advisory: 21.8°N 95.2°W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 As per the latest advisory: 21.8°N 95.2°W. Per latest Recon, a relocation to the south by around 30 miles to 21.3N and 95.4W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Per latest Recon, a relocation to the south by around 30 miles to 21.3N and 95.4W Oops-- yeah. Should have used the recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Storm does look healthier this morning...perhaps 55kts at landfall is a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 All the juicy SMURF readings are flagged and in rain, but some high 40s, one 58 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 291427 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011 A. 29/14:08:00Z B. 21 deg 14 min N 095 deg 28 min W C. NA D. 33 kt E. 131 deg 98 nm F. 198 deg 35 kt G. 131 deg 100 nm H. 1000 mb I. 24 C / 300 m J. 24 C / 366 m K. 24 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 01 O. 0.02 / 9 nm P. AF308 0201A ARLENE OB 09 MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:01:00Z DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 18NM ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 As several have mentioned, will be interesting starting this afternoon up through landfall as Arlene moves right under an upper level anti-cyclone. Shear has been decreasing and improving outflow is evident on satellite imagery, except for perhaps the northern side where shear remains a bit stronger: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS ARLENE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 ASCAT at 10:00 AM EST found 30-35 knot winds and a defined center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It will be interesting to see how much better organized Arlene can get over the diurnal max tonight before it makes landfall. I'm really liking the way the deep convection is popping up, and it should easily be able to consolidate underneath the center of the anticyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Crazy. I can't believe this loose cinnabun might actually be approaching hurricane intensity at landfall. The models did a good job picking this out days ago. I'm kind of impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Crazy. I can't believe this loose cinnabun might actually be approaching hurricane intensity at landfall. The models did a good job picking this out days ago. I'm kind of impressed. I know lots of people (that make budget decisions) that really need to hear things like this ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I know lots of people (that make budget decisions) that really need to hear things like this ..... You mean how the models performed well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 SMRF showing winds around 55mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 You mean how the models performed well? Correct. We have a habit of using raw track/intensity errors to demonstrate skill...but sometimes it is [more] subjective (especially with genesis, development, etc.) and not as easy to communicate to decision makers. .....sorry, I realize now that my reply could have applied to either of your comments; but I was talking about model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Next possible recon times: 000NOUS42 KNHC 291330 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT WED 29 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-029 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: MISSIONS FOR 29/1800Z (WHICH HAS NOW SLIPPED TO 29/2100Z) AND 30/1200Z ON TS ARLENE MAY STILL BOTH FLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Correct. We have a habit of using raw track/intensity errors to demonstrate skill...but sometimes it is [more] subjective (especially with genesis, development, etc.) and not as easy to communicate to decision makers. .....sorry, I realize now that my reply could have applied to either of your comments; but I was talking about model performance. It's cool-- I figured-- just wanted to make sure. Thanks for sharing-- it's an interesting perspective on the topic of evaluating model performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Unflagged estimated surface winds of around 60mph in the SW quadrant of Arlene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Impressive RI probs from the 12z SHIPS Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 I upped my winds to 50KT this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 You don't always see -80º cloud tops around here, so it is something to be appreciated, even if not an IMBY threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 16:05Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308) Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011 Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 12 A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 15:44:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°03'N 95°36'W (21.05N 95.6W) B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the ESE (119°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 262° at 47kts (From the W at ~ 54.1mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 360m (1,181ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 364m (1,194ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southwest quadrant at 15:15:30Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 20NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Still nothing too exciting from recon-- no new revelations. This thing's still a slow brew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 Some temp gradient now. Progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 temp difference from the center is starting to increase a little which is a nice sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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