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Tropical Depression Arlene


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000

URNT12 KNHC 291427

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012011

A. 29/14:08:00Z

B. 21 deg 14 min N

095 deg 28 min W

C. NA

D. 33 kt

E. 131 deg 98 nm

F. 198 deg 35 kt

G. 131 deg 100 nm

H. 1000 mb

I. 24 C / 300 m

J. 24 C / 366 m

K. 24 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 01

O. 0.02 / 9 nm

P. AF308 0201A ARLENE OB 09

MAX FL WIND 47 KT SW QUAD 13:01:00Z

DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 18NM

;

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As several have mentioned, will be interesting starting this afternoon up through landfall as Arlene moves right under an upper level anti-cyclone. Shear has been decreasing and improving outflow is evident on satellite imagery, except for perhaps the northern side where shear remains a bit stronger:

post-525-0-84446500-1309357979.gif

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:popcorn:

THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST

SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE

SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH

PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24

HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF

THE GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS ARLENE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT

LANDFALL. BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH

HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

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Crazy. I can't believe this loose cinnabun might actually be approaching hurricane intensity at landfall.

The models did a good job picking this out days ago. I'm kind of impressed.

I know lots of people (that make budget decisions) that really need to hear things like this .....

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You mean how the models performed well?

Correct. We have a habit of using raw track/intensity errors to demonstrate skill...but sometimes it is [more] subjective (especially with genesis, development, etc.) and not as easy to communicate to decision makers.

.....sorry, I realize now that my reply could have applied to either of your comments; but I was talking about model performance.

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Next possible recon times:

000

NOUS42 KNHC 291330

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0930 AM EDT WED 29 JUNE 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: MISSIONS FOR 29/1800Z (WHICH HAS

NOW SLIPPED TO 29/2100Z) AND 30/1200Z

ON TS ARLENE MAY STILL BOTH FLY.

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Correct. We have a habit of using raw track/intensity errors to demonstrate skill...but sometimes it is [more] subjective (especially with genesis, development, etc.) and not as easy to communicate to decision makers.

.....sorry, I realize now that my reply could have applied to either of your comments; but I was talking about model performance.

It's cool-- I figured-- just wanted to make sure. Thanks for sharing-- it's an interesting perspective on the topic of evaluating model performance.

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Impressive RI probs from the 12z SHIPS

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%)

Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%)

Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 16:05Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2011

Storm Name: Arlene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2 seeall.png

Observation Number: 12

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 15:44:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°03'N 95°36'W (21.05N 95.6W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the ESE (119°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 262° at 47kts (From the W at ~ 54.1mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SW (231°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 360m (1,181ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 364m (1,194ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southwest quadrant at 15:15:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

DIAMETER OF L/V CTR 20NM

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